Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.7 #109
Expected Predictive Rating +3.4 #105
Pace 74.0 #54
Improvement -2.1 #272

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #125 C+ B- C- C C+
Defense #109 C+ B- C C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.17 #162 +0.8 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #228 0.99 #8 +1.0 #115
Three Pointers 42% #153 0.98 #231 -0.1 #184
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #122 +1.7 #126
Freethrows 0.31 #182 71% #222 0.22 #190
Second Chance 33.8% #89 1.11 #68 0.38 #58
Turnovers 18.2% #260
Total Offense +1.5 #125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #37 1.06 #61 -1.2 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #231 0.69 #67 +1.3 #85
Three Pointers 37% #291 1.05 #230 +1.5 #118
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #124 +1.7 #124
Freethrows 0.31 #208 73% #224 0.23 #212
Second Chance 27.4% #68 0.98 #105 0.27 #68
Turnovers 17.2% #170
Total Defense +2.2 #109

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #133 1.3% #293
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #128 -4.6% #90
Possession Length 15.7 #40 17.4 #203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #69 0.17 #186
Improvement -4.4 #345 +2.3 #57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 7.8% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 92.6% 97.5% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 97.1% 80.4%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.9% 7.8% 5.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 39 - 311 - 12
Quad 46 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 125 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 67% +2  1 - 0 +4 +3 B+ D- C+ +0 B F C+
 Sat, Nov 8 151 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 62% +15  2 - 0 +17 +25 B A+ A- -7 C A D-
 Sun, Nov 9 93 @Liberty L 68 - 88 31% -15  2 - 1 -11 -1 F A+ C- -11 D C C
 Thu, Nov 20 126 Pacific W 82 - 59 67% +11  3 - 1 +22 +15 A+ D F+ +9 B+ A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 154 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 64% +7  4 - 1 +11 +12 A+ B- D- +0 B A- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 86 George Mason L 65 - 74 41% -11  4 - 2 -3 +7 B- D C -11 F B F
 Sun, Nov 30 133 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 69% -4  4 - 3 -6 -6 F B+ D+ -1 F+ A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 224 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 66% -0  5 - 3 +4 +8 D C C -3 D+ B- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 317 Albany W 105 - 79 93% +20  6 - 3 +14 +12 A+ D- C- -2 D- A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 41 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 14% -10  6 - 4 +2 +4 C- A+ D -1 C+ B- C+
 Tue, Dec 23 47 Central Florida L 80 - 85 23% +1  6 - 5 +6 +4 C- A+ B- +2 C+ A- C
 Wed, Dec 31 343 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 95% +27  7 - 5 1 - 0 +25 +17 A+ B+ D +4 A- B C
 Sun, Jan 4 173 @Tulane L 66 - 69 56% +1  7 - 6 1 - 1 -1 -6 D- B- F +5 B+ D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 121 @UAB W 76 - 71 43% +7  8 - 6 2 - 1 +10 +2 F+ B C+ +9 A+ B- B+
 Sun, Jan 11 91 Memphis W 89 - 78 53% +8  9 - 6 3 - 1 +14 +12 B+ A+ B- +1 D+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 98 Wichita St. W 85 - 67 56% +15  10 - 6 4 - 1 +20 +13 A+ F+ C +7 A A B
 Sun, Jan 18 143 @Temple W 79 - 73 49% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 +10 -2 F A C +11 A C+ A
 Wed, Jan 21 173 Tulane W 79 - 74 77% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +1 +2 B+ D- B -1 B D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 71 @South Florida L 75 - 89 24% -2  12 - 7 6 - 2 -3 +5 F A- A+ -8 A F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 91 @Memphis L 65 - 92 31% -12  12 - 8 6 - 3 -18 -6 D C+ F -9 D D+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 249 East Carolina L 75 - 76 86% +1  12 - 9 6 - 4 -9 +4 B+ C+ F -13 C- D D-
 Wed, Feb 4 68 Tulsa L 76 - 78 44% +1  12 - 10 6 - 5 +3 -1 D A- B +4 B+ A+ F+
 Wed, Feb 11 227 @Rice W 78 - 74 66%
 Sun, Feb 15 71 South Florida L 83 - 84 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 343 @Texas San Antonio W 84 - 72 87%
 Sun, Feb 22 150 @North Texas W 69 - 68 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 143 Temple W 79 - 73 71%
 Sun, Mar 1 155 Charlotte W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 98 @Wichita St. L 73 - 77 35%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 +4 +2 C+ B- C- +2 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.8 1.1 1st
2nd 1.0 6.0 2.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 8.3 6.9 0.2 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 3.5 13.1 0.9 17.5 4th
5th 0.5 9.9 4.8 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 4.1 10.5 0.9 15.5 6th
7th 0.9 8.7 3.3 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.6 4.7 0.2 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.3 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.5 7.1 18.3 27.8 28.1 14.1 3.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 27.4% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.0% 14.7% 14.7% 11.6 0.2 0.3 2.6
12-6 14.1% 13.7% 13.7% 12.1 0.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.2
11-7 28.1% 8.7% 8.7% 12.4 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 25.6
10-8 27.8% 4.5% 4.5% 12.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 26.6
9-9 18.3% 3.2% 3.2% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 17.8
8-10 7.1% 2.7% 2.7% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
7-11 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 12.4 93.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 38.6 61.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%