Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#118
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#106
Pace70.8#153
Improvement+1.1#96

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#86
First Shot+3.5#84
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#155
Layup/Dunks-0.2#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#72
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement-0.4#213

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot-3.2#286
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#27
Layups/Dunks-0.6#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
Freethrows-1.4#285
Improvement+1.5#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 11.0% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 11.8 12.4
.500 or above 77.4% 92.2% 75.1%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 82.2% 71.2%
Conference Champion 9.0% 14.1% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round7.8% 11.0% 7.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 8
Quad 38 - 510 - 12
Quad 47 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 150 Boston College W 83-78 OT 70%     1 - 0 +2.8 +1.4 +0.8
  Sat, Nov 8 185 College of Charleston W 94-77 68%     2 - 0 +15.3 +23.4 -7.4
  Sun, Nov 9 107 @Liberty L 68-88 36%     2 - 1 -13.2 -0.3 -13.5
  Thu, Nov 20 138 Pacific W 82-59 68%     3 - 1 +21.3 +15.2 +7.9
  Mon, Nov 24 145 Loyola Marymount W 76-65 59%     4 - 1 +12.0 +13.7 -0.8
  Tue, Nov 25 75 George Mason L 65-74 33%     4 - 2 -1.4 +8.0 -11.0
  Sun, Nov 30 111 St. Bonaventure L 65-70 60%     4 - 3 -4.5 -2.5 -2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 184 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81-76 57%     5 - 3 +6.4 +8.2 -1.8
  Sat, Dec 13 306 Albany W 105-79 90%     6 - 3 +14.8 +12.1 -0.9
  Fri, Dec 19 41 @St. Mary's L 67-79 13%    
  Tue, Dec 23 55 Central Florida L 78-85 27%    
  Wed, Dec 31 295 Texas San Antonio W 83-70 90%    
  Sun, Jan 4 199 @Tulane W 79-76 60%    
  Wed, Jan 7 112 @UAB L 78-81 38%    
  Sun, Jan 11 76 Memphis L 76-77 45%    
  Thu, Jan 15 100 Wichita St. W 75-74 55%    
  Sun, Jan 18 156 @Temple W 80-79 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 199 Tulane W 82-73 78%    
  Sun, Jan 25 83 @South Florida L 79-85 28%    
  Thu, Jan 29 76 @Memphis L 73-80 26%    
  Sun, Feb 1 255 East Carolina W 82-70 85%    
  Wed, Feb 4 81 Tulsa L 79-80 47%    
  Wed, Feb 11 206 @Rice W 76-73 61%    
  Sun, Feb 15 83 South Florida L 81-82 48%    
  Wed, Feb 18 295 @Texas San Antonio W 80-73 74%    
  Sun, Feb 22 146 @North Texas L 68-69 47%    
  Wed, Feb 25 156 Temple W 83-77 71%    
  Sun, Mar 1 198 Charlotte W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 100 @Wichita St. L 72-77 34%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 6.2 2.7 0.3 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 6.0 3.7 0.4 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.8 1.3 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.6 0.2 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.9 7.7 10.8 12.5 14.8 13.9 12.3 9.1 5.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 97.7% 1.2    1.0 0.1
15-3 82.3% 2.5    1.8 0.6 0.1
14-4 52.3% 2.9    1.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 18.8% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 4.9 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 43.2% 41.7% 1.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.6%
16-2 1.2% 29.6% 28.5% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 1.6%
15-3 3.0% 21.8% 21.7% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.1%
14-4 5.5% 21.3% 21.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 4.3 0.2%
13-5 9.1% 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 12.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 0.0%
12-6 12.3% 12.4% 12.4% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 10.8
11-7 13.9% 8.9% 8.9% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 12.7
10-8 14.8% 5.6% 5.6% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 14.0
9-9 12.5% 2.5% 2.5% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.1
8-10 10.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
7-11 7.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.5
6-12 4.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 7.8% 7.7% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 92.2 0.0%