Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#46
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#37
Pace65.4#281
Improvement+0.7#144

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#22
First Shot+6.8#33
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#107
Layup/Dunks+4.3#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#100
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement+2.2#33

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#97
First Shot-0.1#176
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#33
Layups/Dunks-0.5#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#112
Freethrows+0.6#149
Improvement-1.6#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.3% 3.5% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 7.8% 8.1% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.9% 44.6% 28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.3% 22.9% 10.7%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 9.9
.500 or above 99.0% 99.2% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 96.8% 92.5%
Conference Champion 37.3% 37.7% 27.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four5.2% 5.3% 3.6%
First Round41.4% 42.0% 27.1%
Second Round20.0% 20.5% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.2% 3.0%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.6% 1.1%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 27 - 7
Quad 39 - 215 - 9
Quad 48 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 339   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +16.3 +6.8 +9.2
  Nov 09, 2024 66   Northwestern W 71-66 67%     2 - 0 +11.0 +4.3 +6.8
  Nov 13, 2024 270   Ball St. W 77-69 95%     3 - 0 -1.0 +0.4 -1.4
  Nov 20, 2024 218   New Mexico St. W 74-53 93%     4 - 0 +14.9 +10.5 +7.6
  Nov 25, 2024 17   North Carolina L 90-92 34%     4 - 1 +12.8 +13.4 -0.4
  Nov 26, 2024 8   Iowa St. L 84-89 23%     4 - 2 +13.2 +21.0 -7.8
  Nov 27, 2024 11   Connecticut W 85-67 32%     5 - 2 +33.5 +22.7 +12.3
  Dec 03, 2024 271   Western Michigan W 77-69 96%     6 - 2 -1.0 +12.6 -12.2
  Dec 07, 2024 251   Lehigh W 84-66 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 12   Marquette L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 17, 2024 104   UNLV W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 20, 2024 25   Cincinnati L 70-73 38%    
  Dec 31, 2024 143   La Salle W 82-69 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 151   @ George Washington W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 08, 2025 171   @ Massachusetts W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 15, 2025 82   George Mason W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 86   Loyola Chicago W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 208   @ Duquesne W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 24, 2025 101   Saint Joseph's W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 28, 2025 88   @ St. Bonaventure W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 31, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 04, 2025 134   Davidson W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 07, 2025 55   Virginia Commonwealth W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 12, 2025 201   @ Fordham W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 208   Duquesne W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 21, 2025 86   @ Loyola Chicago W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 91   @ Rhode Island W 78-76 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 186   Richmond W 78-63 90%    
  Mar 04, 2025 137   Saint Louis W 83-71 86%    
  Mar 07, 2025 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 69-71 43%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.9 10.9 10.3 5.4 1.5 37.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.6 8.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.7 5.8 1.8 0.2 13.6 3rd
4th 0.4 2.9 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.9 9.2 12.4 16.1 16.8 14.7 10.9 5.4 1.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
17-1 99.6% 5.4    5.2 0.2
16-2 94.4% 10.3    8.5 1.7 0.1
15-3 74.7% 10.9    6.8 3.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 40.9% 6.9    2.5 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.5% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.3% 37.3 24.9 9.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 98.2% 58.8% 39.4% 4.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.6%
17-1 5.4% 92.1% 50.6% 41.5% 5.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 83.9%
16-2 10.9% 80.9% 44.0% 36.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.1 65.9%
15-3 14.7% 65.4% 36.3% 29.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.4 0.1 5.1 45.7%
14-4 16.8% 48.2% 31.2% 17.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.9 0.4 8.7 24.7%
13-5 16.1% 34.6% 26.0% 8.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.4 0.7 10.6 11.7%
12-6 12.4% 24.0% 19.9% 4.2% 11.1 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.7 9.4 5.2%
11-7 9.2% 15.5% 13.8% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 7.8 2.0%
10-8 5.9% 8.8% 8.1% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.4 0.8%
9-9 3.6% 6.2% 6.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4 0.1%
8-10 1.9% 4.3% 4.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.9% 2.6% 2.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.4% 3.9% 3.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.9% 27.8% 16.1% 9.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.7 5.2 7.6 13.8 2.9 0.0 56.1 22.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.3 26.9 31.5 27.7 10.0 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.5 3.3 33.3 10.0 26.7 20.0 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 10.0 5.0 40.0 20.0 25.0