High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#141
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#114
Pace64.3#308
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#52
First Shot+4.3#69
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#119
Layup/Dunks-0.9#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#126
Freethrows+4.3#17
Improvement+2.1#39

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#310
First Shot-4.0#305
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#205
Layups/Dunks-1.4#219
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#288
Freethrows+1.3#106
Improvement-2.1#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 27.4% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 98.1% 99.3% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 92.0% 86.9%
Conference Champion 36.5% 40.4% 31.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round24.8% 27.3% 21.7%
Second Round2.1% 2.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Neutral) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 36 - 66 - 7
Quad 415 - 322 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-51 98%     1 - 0 +19.2 +10.5 +8.1
  Nov 09, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 80-71 88%     2 - 0 -2.4 +3.1 -5.6
  Nov 12, 2024 281   NC Central W 76-60 84%     3 - 0 +6.6 +9.2 +0.0
  Nov 15, 2024 124   UAB W 68-65 57%     4 - 0 +2.2 -6.0 +8.3
  Nov 18, 2024 236   American W 80-73 78%     5 - 0 -0.1 +18.9 -17.6
  Nov 24, 2024 165   Missouri St. L 61-71 56%     5 - 1 -10.6 -6.5 -4.6
  Nov 25, 2024 317   Old Dominion W 73-67 82%     6 - 1 -2.8 +5.3 -7.4
  Nov 26, 2024 264   Hampton W 76-73 75%     7 - 1 -2.8 +14.2 -16.5
  Dec 03, 2024 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-72 42%     7 - 2 -0.9 +10.0 -11.7
  Dec 06, 2024 77   North Texas W 76-71 38%     8 - 2 +9.2 +9.6 -0.4
  Dec 14, 2024 163   Appalachian St. W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 21, 2024 169   @ Southern Illinois L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 153   Norfolk St. W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 02, 2025 189   Radford W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 193   @ UNC Asheville L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 276   @ Charleston Southern W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 221   Gardner-Webb W 79-72 75%    
  Jan 15, 2025 202   @ Longwood L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 248   Presbyterian W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 22, 2025 343   @ South Carolina Upstate W 85-75 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 179   Winthrop W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 248   @ Presbyterian W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 189   @ Radford L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 193   UNC Asheville W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 202   Longwood W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 179   @ Winthrop L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 276   Charleston Southern W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 221   @ Gardner-Webb W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 343   South Carolina Upstate W 88-72 92%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.2 9.8 10.2 6.8 3.0 0.7 36.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.9 8.8 4.8 1.2 0.1 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.7 7.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.3 1.7 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.4 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.3 8.6 12.3 15.5 16.6 14.8 11.4 6.9 3.0 0.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.0
14-2 98.5% 6.8    6.3 0.4
13-3 89.5% 10.2    8.3 1.9 0.0
12-4 66.2% 9.8    5.3 3.8 0.6 0.0
11-5 31.2% 5.2    1.3 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 5.7% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 36.5% 36.5 25.0 8.7 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 54.5% 54.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.0% 49.7% 49.7% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.5
14-2 6.9% 43.8% 43.8% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.9
13-3 11.4% 38.2% 38.2% 13.3 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.2 7.0
12-4 14.8% 31.7% 31.7% 13.7 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 10.1
11-5 16.6% 24.9% 24.9% 14.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.0 12.5
10-6 15.5% 19.3% 19.3% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 12.5
9-7 12.3% 15.3% 15.3% 14.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 10.4
8-8 8.6% 13.7% 13.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 7.4
7-9 5.3% 9.9% 9.9% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.8
6-10 2.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
5-11 1.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-12 0.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.8 7.1 8.7 5.1 1.0 75.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.1 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 51.4 35.1 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%