Radford
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#194
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#105
Pace61.1#347
Improvement-0.1#190

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#149
First Shot+0.0#174
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#115
Layup/Dunks-2.4#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#240
Freethrows+3.9#13
Improvement-1.3#262

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#255
First Shot-3.2#277
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#122
Layups/Dunks+3.5#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#312
Freethrows-2.3#325
Improvement+1.2#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 12.8% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 93.9% 96.5% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 90.1% 72.4%
Conference Champion 15.5% 18.7% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 2.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round12.0% 12.8% 9.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 34 - 44 - 10
Quad 415 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 31   @ Pittsburgh L 56-96 6%     0 - 1 -24.4 -11.0 -13.0
  Nov 08, 2024 193   William & Mary W 89-77 61%     1 - 1 +7.6 +10.1 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2024 273   Old Dominion W 87-75 77%     2 - 1 +2.9 +10.4 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2024 254   @ Evansville W 92-81 53%     3 - 1 +8.7 +32.1 -22.3
  Nov 21, 2024 34   @ Clemson L 51-79 7%     3 - 2 -12.6 -9.6 -5.5
  Nov 25, 2024 358   Chicago St. W 63-48 89%     4 - 2 +0.0 -5.6 +7.4
  Nov 26, 2024 148   Purdue Fort Wayne W 69-56 40%     5 - 2 +14.0 -0.5 +15.5
  Dec 01, 2024 341   @ St. Francis (PA) W 79-70 74%     6 - 2 +0.7 +10.0 -8.4
  Dec 05, 2024 303   @ NC Central W 70-67 63%     7 - 2 -2.0 -7.3 +5.3
  Dec 08, 2024 261   Bucknell W 74-70 OT 75%     8 - 2 -4.4 -1.5 -3.2
  Dec 14, 2024 75   @ Utah L 63-81 14%     8 - 3 -7.8 -3.8 -4.3
  Dec 17, 2024 79   @ Colorado St. L 68-78 14%     8 - 4 +0.0 +9.9 -11.1
  Dec 22, 2024 77   @ South Carolina L 48-74 14%     8 - 5 -15.8 -14.4 -3.9
  Jan 02, 2025 108   @ High Point L 58-76 22%     8 - 6 0 - 1 -11.4 -5.6 -9.2
  Jan 04, 2025 189   Winthrop W 87-67 60%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +15.9 +15.0 +1.9
  Jan 11, 2025 340   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-67 74%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +4.7 +10.7 -4.9
  Jan 15, 2025 256   Gardner-Webb W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 293   @ Charleston Southern W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 202   Longwood W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 275   @ Presbyterian W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 177   @ UNC Asheville L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 340   South Carolina Upstate W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 05, 2025 108   High Point L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 202   @ Longwood L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 12, 2025 189   @ Winthrop L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 177   UNC Asheville W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 275   Presbyterian W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 26, 2025 256   @ Gardner-Webb W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 293   Charleston Southern W 75-66 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.3 4.5 1.6 0.4 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.1 10.4 5.2 1.0 0.0 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 7.7 9.6 3.4 0.3 0.0 21.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.7 8.2 1.8 0.1 15.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 6.4 1.8 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 3.5 1.1 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.4 7.8 13.1 19.0 18.2 16.9 10.8 5.5 1.7 0.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
14-2 98.6% 1.6    1.5 0.2
13-3 81.3% 4.5    2.9 1.6 0.1
12-4 49.0% 5.3    2.5 2.4 0.4
11-5 18.3% 3.1    0.6 1.3 1.1 0.1
10-6 3.4% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 7.9 5.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.4% 17.5% 17.5% 12.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.7% 24.8% 24.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2
13-3 5.5% 22.2% 22.2% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 4.3
12-4 10.8% 21.1% 21.1% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.5
11-5 16.9% 17.8% 17.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 13.9
10-6 18.2% 10.4% 10.4% 14.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.0 16.3
9-7 19.0% 9.1% 9.1% 14.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.1 17.3
8-8 13.1% 6.0% 6.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 12.3
7-9 7.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4 0.3 0.2 7.4
6-10 4.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
5-11 1.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-12 0.4% 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 4.1 0.5 88.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 97.3 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%