High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +5.3 96
Expected Predictive Rating +4.4 99
Pace 71.8 94
Improvement -2.5 286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #68 C+ B- A- B+ B
Defense C #167 C- D+ A C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 54 63% 72 +5.1 28
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 315 35% 289 -3.2 331
Three Pointers 43% 149 33% 231 +0.1 171
1st FG Attempt 1.06 109 +2.0 112
Second Chance 30.9% 168 1.15 45 0.35 91
Turnovers 13.6% 20
Freethrows 0.35 48 75% 110 0.26 40
Total Offense +5.2 68

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 186 61% 263 -1.1 211
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 283 39% 212 +1.1 102
Three Pointers 44% 86 34% 170 -1.5 256
1st FG Attempt 1.05 230 -1.5 231
Second Chance 32.4% 253 1.10 292 0.35 289
Turnovers 21.8% 11
Freethrows 0.30 176 72% 194 0.22 171
Total Defense +0.1 167

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.2 37 +0.4 248
Shot Type Accuracy +0.9 140 +1.0 222
Possession Length 15.9 55 17.8 271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 17 0.17 168
Improvement -4.0 #346 +1.5 #104

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.7% 53.5% 48.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 78.1% 81.5% 60.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round52.7% 53.5% 48.6%
Second Round5.6% 6.0% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 34 - 4
Quad 421 - 125 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 174 Furman W 97 - 71 72% +17  89% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +18 A+ C+ A+ B+ +6 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 306 Jacksonville W 85 - 64 93% +11  80% 2 - 0 B +9 B +6 F+ C- A+ B- +4 B C B
 Fri, Nov 14 125 @UAB L 74 - 91 50% -3  21% 2 - 1 D- -12 D- -6 D D+ D C- -3 F A B
 Mon, Nov 17 346 Canisius W 93 - 50 96% +25  97% 3 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +17 A A- A+ A +13 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 136 Illinois-Chicago W 90 - 80 65% +6  96% 4 - 1 B+ +11 A +13 A- C A C- -2 D+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 256 Incarnate Word W 91 - 80 84% +5  61% 5 - 1 B- +6 A+ +17 C+ A+ A F -11 C+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 282 Western Carolina W 93 - 73 91% +7  62% 6 - 1 B +10 B- +5 A+ F+ F+ B- +4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 131 Southern Illinois L 84 - 86 73% +3  60% 6 - 2 C- -3 B+ +8 B- B- A F+ -11 C F C
 Fri, Dec 5 315 NJIT W 89 - 72 94% +12  97% 7 - 2 C+ +5 B- +5 D+ A B+ C -1 F C A+
 Sun, Dec 14 173 Appalachian St. L 78 - 86 OT 72% -2  30% 7 - 3 D -9 C- -1 C- F A- D -7 F B+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 227 La Salle W 84 - 72 87% +8  96% 8 - 3 B- +5 A +12 A- B+ A D -6 C- C+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 344 Bryant W 93 - 47 96% +27  94% 9 - 3 A+ +31 A+ +20 A+ A+ F A+ +15 B- C- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 214 @UNC Asheville W 87 - 69 69% +11  96% 10 - 3 1 - 0 A +18 A+ +16 A+ A C B- +3 B+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 260 Longwood W 80 - 67 90% +7  90% 11 - 3 2 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 C A- A- C -1 D- D- B
 Wed, Jan 7 363 Gardner-Webb W 104 - 49 98% +38  99% 12 - 3 3 - 0 A+ +34 B +6 D A- B+ A+ +21 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 258 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 82 OT 77% -2  27% 13 - 3 4 - 0 C -0 D+ -3 D+ D+ C+ B- +3 C B- F+
 Wed, Jan 14 132 @Winthrop L 75 - 92 52% -15  3% 13 - 4 4 - 1 D- -12 C +0 C- F B F -12 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 298 South Carolina Upstate W 89 - 69 93% +7  96% 14 - 4 5 - 1 B +9 A +13 C- A+ A+ C- -3 B F A
 Fri, Jan 23 232 @Radford W 93 - 83 73% +1  55% 15 - 4 6 - 1 B +9 A +11 A D- A+ C- -3 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 272 Presbyterian W 84 - 81 91% +2  66% 16 - 4 7 - 1 D+ -6 B +6 F+ B+ A+ F -12 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 260 @Longwood W 71 - 59 77% +6  77% 17 - 4 8 - 1 B +9 C+ +3 D D+ A+ B+ +7 B- C A+
 Wed, Feb 4 258 Charleston Southern W 80 - 55 90% +11  89% 18 - 4 9 - 1 A- +17 C +1 C+ B- C A+ +16 C- B A+
 Sat, Feb 7 232 Radford W 86 - 77 87% +3  85% 19 - 4 10 - 1 C+ +2 D -4 F+ D C+ B +5 B F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 12 298 @South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 67 99%
 Thu, Feb 19 214 UNC Asheville W 81 - 70 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 132 Winthrop W 84 - 78 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 272 @Presbyterian W 78 - 70 79%
Totals 23 - 5 14 - 2 +5 B +5 C+ B- A- C +0 C- D+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B D+ C- C+ 43% 14% 43% B C+ C B B- A- B B- B+ C D+ C C C- 39% 17% 44% D+ C- D+ D+ D+ A C C C
1.16 63% 35% 33% +1 +1 1.06 31% 1.1 .35 14% .35 75% .26 1.09 61% 39% 34% +1 0 1.05 32% 1.1 .35 22% .30 72% .26
Nov
3		 Furman A+ A+ C+ A- A+ 43% 28% 30% C A+ D A+ C+ A+ C- F F+ B+ D- D- B+ C- 40% 17% 44% C+ C F A+ C+ A+ F F+ F
1.33 81% 41% 39% +13 -1 1.26 26% 1.3 .34 8% .22 53% .12 0.97 68% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.08 44% 0.6 .26 30% .37 74% .27
Nov
11		 Jacksonville B D F C F 48% 13% 38% B+ F+ D B C- A+ A A- A+ B- B A+ B- A- 32% 8% 60% D- B D B C B C- B- C
1.23 56% 14% 35% -4 +2 0.98 25% 1.1 .28 4% .46 77% .35 0.93 50% 0% 30% -9 +1 0.86 32% 0.9 .29 20% .29 69% .20
Nov
14		 UAB D- A- D F D- 42% 18% 40% B- D C+ F D+ D A+ D A+ C- D F C+ F 48% 27% 25% C- F A- A- A B F F+ F
0.95 70% 30% 18% -6 +1 0.91 28% 0.7 .20 19% .49 71% .35 1.16 64% 50% 31% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .52 77% .40
Nov
17		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ B- A 37% 11% 53% B A D- A+ A- A+ F A F A A+ B+ A+ A+ 38% 25% 38% C A+ F C F A+ F B F
1.40 81% 67% 37% +14 +1 1.32 26% 1.7 .44 9% .17 80% .13 0.75 33% 30% 20% -19 -1 0.63 39% 0.9 .37 32% .55 64% .35
Nov
20		 Illinois-Chicago A C+ F A A- 39% 11% 50% B A- C- C+ C A A+ A- A+ C- F C+ A+ D 33% 23% 44% B- D+ F D F A+ F C+ F
1.23 59% 20% 41% +4 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49 1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31
Nov
22		 Incarnate Word A+ B+ A D- C 56% 8% 35% A- C+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F B F+ B+ B- 32% 22% 46% C C+ F+ F F C- F F F
1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45 1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31
Nov
29		 Western Carolina B- A A+ A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C- A+ C F F+ F+ C+ D C B- F F C- F 31% 24% 45% B+ F B A+ A+ A+ D A C
1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25 0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20
Dec
3		 Southern Illinois B+ D F A+ C+ 42% 15% 42% B B- C+ C+ B- A A B A F+ C+ A+ F C+ 45% 24% 31% D C D F F C A D B+
1.13 50% 25% 41% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.1 .33 15% .38 75% .29 1.16 58% 29% 39% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.8 .58 16% .23 71% .16
Dec
5		 NJIT B- C F D- D- 49% 9% 42% A- D+ C A+ A B+ C B- C C C F D F 22% 8% 69% F+ F B+ F C A+ B- D C
1.21 57% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.4 .49 11% .35 74% .26 0.98 55% 50% 35% +2 0 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 26% .29 75% .22
Dec
14		 Appalachian St. C- C F D 37% 0% 63% A C- B- F F A- A+ F B- D A+ F F F 36% 13% 51% D+ F A C B+ C F F F
1.03 55% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 0.5 .16 11% .40 56% .22 1.14 42% 57% 48% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.0 .21 16% .41 73% .30
Dec
19		 La Salle A D+ F A+ A- 36% 11% 53% B- A- D+ A+ B+ A A+ A- A+ D C B- D C- 48% 26% 26% C- C- B D+ C+ C F F F
1.28 53% 20% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.6 .42 12% .48 75% .36 1.10 55% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 18% .60 81% .48
Dec
22		 Bryant A+ B A+ A A+ 54% 5% 41% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ A- F A+ B+ 54% 5% 41% F B- C- C C- A+ D A+ C+
1.45 64% 100% 41% +11 +3 1.29 58% 1.5 .88 20% .63 69% .43 0.73 45% 100% 20% -12 +3 0.84 28% 1.0 .28 34% .31 62% .19
Dec
31		 UNC Asheville A+ A+ F A+ A+ 40% 19% 42% C- A+ F A+ A C A+ B A+ B- F A+ A+ A- 32% 38% 30% C- B+ B+ F D- F F+ A- D+
1.30 82% 25% 50% +17 0 1.37 19% 2.3 .43 16% .47 73% .34 1.03 81% 26% 20% -3 -3 0.90 24% 1.5 .36 12% .41 63% .25
Jan
3		 Longwood B A+ F F C- 51% 8% 41% A- C D- A+ A- A- B A- A- C D A- C- D- 44% 16% 40% F+ D- C- F+ D- B A A A
1.21 77% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.12 22% 1.7 .37 15% .39 77% .30 1.01 65% 29% 33% +1 +1 1.07 33% 1.1 .36 23% .23 67% .16
Jan
7		 Gardner-Webb B D+ A+ F D- 48% 12% 40% B+ D B A- A- B+ A B+ A A+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 13% 52% C- A+ A- F C A+ A+ A+ A+
1.31 59% 71% 29% +1 +2 1.08 40% 1.3 .50 11% .37 77% .28 0.62 40% 43% 17% -19 +1 0.66 18% 1.3 .23 30% .11 33% .04
Jan
10		 Charleston Southern D+ B- F C D+ 49% 25% 25% B- D+ C+ F D+ C+ A+ F A B- A+ F F+ C+ 46% 10% 44% D- C A+ F B- F+ B A- B+
1.04 59% 13% 33% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.8 .25 11% .56 60% .33 1.01 41% 67% 39% -1 +2 1.03 19% 1.1 .21 15% .22 60% .13
Jan
14		 Winthrop C A F+ F C- 35% 12% 53% B- C- C+ F F B A+ D+ A+ F D- C+ D+ F 44% 6% 50% F+ F C F F D F A F
1.06 71% 33% 27% -2 +1 1.00 32% 0.5 .15 14% .46 71% .33 1.31 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.5 .52 13% .54 67% .36
Jan
17		 South Carolina Upstate A C A+ F+ C- 47% 15% 38% B- C- B- A+ A+ A+ B- C C+ C- A A C- B+ 38% 16% 46% D B F D F A C- F+ D
1.31 58% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 7% .33 71% .24 1.02 42% 25% 35% -7 +1 0.88 40% 1.0 .40 22% .30 75% .23
Jan
23		 Radford A A- F A+ A 37% 8% 55% B- A F A D- A+ A+ B A+ C- D- C- F F 43% 9% 47% F+ F D A- C+ A+ B- C B-
1.26 68% 25% 43% +10 +2 1.25 21% 1.3 .28 10% .50 76% .38 1.13 65% 40% 40% +8 +2 1.21 32% 0.8 .26 24% .32 72% .23
Jan
29		 Presbyterian B C- A F F 53% 11% 36% A- F+ B B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F D- C F F 39% 36% 25% A F D- F F B- F F F
1.22 55% 50% 20% -8 +2 0.91 36% 1.1 .40 6% .43 79% .34 1.18 65% 38% 55% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.2 .44 22% .45 79% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Longwood C+ C+ F D- D- 50% 7% 43% A- D F A+ D+ A+ B- A+ A- B+ D+ A+ B- B- 34% 23% 43% C+ B- D B C A+ A+ D A
1.12 65% 0% 30% -1 +3 1.04 17% 1.2 .21 13% .38 81% .31 0.93 63% 18% 30% -6 -1 0.89 36% 0.8 .30 29% .20 78% .16
Feb
4		 Charleston Southern C B- F F C- 58% 15% 27% A+ C+ B C+ B- C D B D+ A+ F B- B C- 29% 7% 63% C C- F+ A+ B A+ A F B
1.14 59% 25% 27% -4 +2 0.98 33% 1.1 .36 11% .32 75% .24 0.78 75% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.07 35% 0.6 .19 41% .17 86% .14
Feb
7		 Radford D C F F F 59% 4% 37% A+ F+ C+ F D C+ A+ A+ A+ B D F A+ A- 37% 8% 55% D- B D F+ F+ A+ F A D
1.08 59% 0% 22% -8 +4 0.94 35% 0.8 .30 18% .57 84% .47 0.97 63% 50% 21% -7 +2 0.90 33% 1.2 .38 24% .46 64% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.2 31.8 41.9 78.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.9 11.2 7.6 22.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 3.0 15.5 39.4 41.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 41.9    41.9
14-2 80.8% 31.8    14.6 17.2
13-3 27.2% 4.2    0.8 3.4
12-4 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 78.1% 78.1 57.3 20.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 41.9% 57.3% 57.3% 12.3 1.4 14.7 7.6 0.3 17.9
14-2 39.4% 51.3% 51.3% 12.9 0.1 5.4 12.0 2.6 0.0 19.2
13-3 15.5% 46.4% 46.4% 13.1 0.0 1.0 4.4 1.8 0.0 8.3
12-4 3.0% 39.6% 39.6% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.8
11-5 0.2% 48.8% 48.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 52.7% 52.7% 0.0% 12.6 47.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.0% 100.0% 12.3 5.7 61.2 31.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7%