High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#106
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#154
Pace74.3#60
Improvement-5.0#362

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#63
First Shot+4.5#67
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#132
Layup/Dunks+4.9#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
Freethrows+1.7#91
Improvement-2.5#343

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#212
First Shot-1.3#224
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#188
Layups/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#321
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement-2.5#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.1% 42.0% 35.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.2% 98.2%
Conference Champion 56.9% 58.3% 48.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round41.0% 41.9% 35.4%
Second Round4.5% 4.7% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 34 - 4
Quad 419 - 323 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 152 Furman W 97-71 63%     1 - 0 +26.5 +19.4 +6.0
  Tue, Nov 11 309 Jacksonville W 85-64 92%     2 - 0 +9.3 +8.5 +1.2
  Fri, Nov 14 112 @UAB L 74-91 41%     2 - 1 -10.6 -4.6 -4.2
  Mon, Nov 17 342 Canisius W 93-50 94%     3 - 1 +28.8 +21.1 +10.1
  Thu, Nov 20 192 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 72%     4 - 1 +8.0 +12.3 -4.7
  Sat, Nov 22 173 Incarnate Word W 91-80 69%     5 - 1 +10.0 +21.0 -10.3
  Sat, Nov 29 297 Western Carolina W 93-73 90%     6 - 1 +9.7 +10.7 -2.2
  Wed, Dec 3 129 Southern Illinois L 84-86 69%     6 - 2 -3.1 +6.4 -9.4
  Fri, Dec 5 352 NJIT W 89-72 96%     7 - 2 +0.9 +7.2 -7.1
  Sun, Dec 14 225 Appalachian St. L 78-86 OT 77%     7 - 3 -11.8 -1.1 -10.1
  Fri, Dec 19 238 La Salle W 81-70 86%    
  Mon, Dec 22 299 Bryant W 83-69 91%    
  Wed, Dec 31 219 @UNC Asheville W 82-77 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 293 Longwood W 88-74 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 362 Gardner-Webb W 94-71 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 256 @Charleston Southern W 83-77 72%    
  Wed, Jan 14 113 @Winthrop L 84-86 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 258 South Carolina Upstate W 86-73 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 253 @Radford W 88-82 72%    
  Thu, Jan 29 277 Presbyterian W 78-65 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 293 @Longwood W 85-77 77%    
  Wed, Feb 4 256 Charleston Southern W 86-74 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 253 Radford W 91-79 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 258 @South Carolina Upstate W 83-76 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 362 Gardner-Webb W 94-71 98%    
  Thu, Feb 19 219 UNC Asheville W 85-74 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 113 Winthrop W 87-83 63%    
  Thu, Feb 26 277 @Presbyterian W 75-68 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 6.9 14.6 17.3 12.2 3.9 56.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.7 10.3 6.6 1.7 29.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 7.8 11.7 17.8 21.2 19.0 12.2 3.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.9    3.9
15-1 100.0% 12.2    11.8 0.5
14-2 91.2% 17.3    14.0 3.3 0.0
13-3 68.8% 14.6    9.6 4.8 0.2
12-4 38.9% 6.9    3.0 3.3 0.6 0.0
11-5 15.3% 1.8    0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1
10-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 56.9% 56.9 42.6 12.8 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.9% 66.9% 66.9% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.2 1.3
15-1 12.2% 57.4% 57.4% 12.6 0.3 3.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 5.2
14-2 19.0% 50.5% 50.5% 13.1 0.0 1.8 5.1 2.5 0.2 9.4
13-3 21.2% 41.5% 41.5% 13.5 0.5 3.9 3.9 0.5 0.0 12.4
12-4 17.8% 36.8% 36.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.4 1.2 0.0 11.2
11-5 11.7% 29.6% 29.6% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.1 8.3
10-6 7.8% 24.3% 24.3% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 5.9
9-7 3.8% 20.1% 20.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.0
8-8 1.7% 16.6% 16.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
7-9 0.7% 12.4% 12.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6
6-10 0.2% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 41.1% 41.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.5 14.7 13.1 4.5 0.6 58.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 11.4 0.6 5.2 50.1 42.4 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%