Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#202
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#165
Pace70.2#143
Improvement-2.8#311

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#213
First Shot-2.1#233
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#129
Layup/Dunks+1.6#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#351
Freethrows+3.4#24
Improvement+0.9#117

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#203
First Shot-2.1#247
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#85
Layups/Dunks-5.3#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#113
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement-3.7#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 13.1% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 90.8% 96.5% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 71.8% 85.8% 62.7%
Conference Champion 6.8% 13.8% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 2.5%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round9.9% 13.0% 7.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 342   Morgan St. W 84-66 87%     1 - 0 +3.7 -1.8 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 53%     2 - 0 +11.2 -7.9 +17.2
  Nov 16, 2024 291   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 78%     3 - 0 -8.1 -11.3 +3.3
  Nov 19, 2024 316   @ Binghamton W 66-60 65%     4 - 0 +0.0 -1.1 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 98   UAB W 89-81 26%     5 - 0 +12.6 +12.5 -0.2
  Nov 24, 2024 72   McNeese St. L 69-84 18%     5 - 1 -7.5 +0.8 -8.3
  Nov 25, 2024 93   Kansas St. L 64-80 23%     5 - 2 -10.4 -6.0 -4.3
  Dec 05, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 92%     6 - 2 -14.1 -0.7 -13.4
  Dec 14, 2024 303   NC Central L 70-77 80%     6 - 3 -17.9 -8.6 -9.4
  Dec 18, 2024 271   @ Campbell W 77-55 53%     7 - 3 +19.0 +9.2 +11.2
  Dec 20, 2024 303   @ NC Central W 82-67 61%     8 - 3 +10.0 +7.2 +3.1
  Dec 29, 2024 50   @ SMU L 82-98 8%     8 - 4 -2.4 +6.8 -7.8
  Jan 02, 2025 275   @ Presbyterian L 60-68 55%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -11.4 -11.1 -0.9
  Jan 04, 2025 293   Charleston Southern W 83-78 78%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -5.3 +6.2 -11.4
  Jan 08, 2025 177   UNC Asheville W 85-76 56%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +5.3 +6.4 -1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 189   @ Winthrop L 76-95 35%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -17.3 -1.6 -14.6
  Jan 16, 2025 108   High Point L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 22, 2025 194   @ Radford L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 340   South Carolina Upstate W 83-71 87%    
  Jan 29, 2025 256   @ Gardner-Webb W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 293   @ Charleston Southern W 75-73 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 194   Radford W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 12, 2025 108   @ High Point L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 275   Presbyterian W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 256   Gardner-Webb W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 177   @ UNC Asheville L 76-80 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 189   Winthrop W 81-79 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 340   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-74 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.8 1.0 0.2 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.1 5.5 1.4 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 7.1 8.1 2.4 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 1.0 7.4 9.3 2.4 0.0 20.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.2 8.8 2.8 0.1 18.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.8 6.7 2.0 0.1 13.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 8.4 15.0 19.4 20.4 16.3 10.2 4.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 97.5% 1.0    0.9 0.1
12-4 65.4% 2.8    1.2 1.4 0.2
11-5 22.6% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.9 0.1
10-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 2.6 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.2% 47.7% 47.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 1.1% 31.4% 31.4% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-4 4.3% 23.7% 23.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 3.3
11-5 10.2% 17.7% 17.7% 14.3 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.0 8.4
10-6 16.3% 12.9% 12.9% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.1 14.2
9-7 20.4% 10.6% 10.6% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.2 18.3
8-8 19.4% 7.6% 7.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.4 17.9
7-9 15.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 14.3
6-10 8.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.1 0.3 8.1
5-11 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.2
4-12 1.2% 1.2
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.9 1.5 89.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%