Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #277
Pace 70.0 #143
Improvement +4.0 #33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #271 D+ C D- C+ C
Defense #242 D- B C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #152 1.17 #160 +0.8 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #125 0.73 #222 +0.5 #152
Three Pointers 38% #250 0.88 #334 -4.4 #321
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #271 -3.1 #271
Freethrows 0.32 #146 75% #98 0.24 #122
Second Chance 32.7% #118 0.93 #306 0.30 #200
Turnovers 20.4% #342
Total Offense -3.7 #271

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.33 #351 -4.7 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #346 0.78 #231 +2.2 #34
Three Pointers 45% #60 1.07 #252 -3.3 #315
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #341 -5.8 #342
Freethrows 0.34 #298 70% #64 0.24 #266
Second Chance 29.7% #141 0.88 #22 0.26 #59
Turnovers 18.4% #93
Total Defense -2.0 #242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #221 1.9% #337
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #282 9.2% #335
Possession Length 16.8 #126 17.4 #210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #248 0.17 #187
Improvement +0.0 #184 +4.0 #17

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.2% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 16.7% 40.0% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 54.5% 82.9% 49.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round1.9% 2.8% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 94 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 9% -5  0 - 1 -9 -9 F D A+ -0 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 220 James Madison W 82 - 72 53% +8  1 - 1 +4 +4 F+ D B -0 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 361 Binghamton W 90 - 82 89% +14  2 - 1 -11 +3 D+ C+ D -15 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 346 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 81% -3  2 - 2 -16 -6 F B F -10 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 183 @Columbia L 70 - 95 24% -13  2 - 3 -23 -5 B+ F F -17 F D- D
 Fri, Nov 28 175 Siena L 63 - 70 33% -3  2 - 4 -8 -9 F B F +1 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 337 Maine W 65 - 61 70% +3  3 - 4 -7 -3 A F F -4 C F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 253 @American L 66 - 92 36% -8  3 - 5 -28 -8 F F A -19 F F+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 354 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 69% +1  4 - 5 -7 +0 D B+ F+ -7 F+ B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 353 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 85% -5  4 - 6 -22 +4 C C- F -26 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 75 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 7% -2  4 - 7 +8 -2 F B- B+ +10 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 344 @NC Central W 74 - 72 62% +2  5 - 7 -7 -4 D- B- F -3 C B D+
 Wed, Dec 31 124 Winthrop W 82 - 70 32% +7  6 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +10 B+ A+ D +1 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 97 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  6 - 8 1 - 1 -4 -1 C C C- -5 C- C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 213 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 29% -6  6 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -6 D- D- C+ -6 D- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 265 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 62% +10  7 - 9 2 - 2 -2 +8 B+ B C -10 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 232 @Radford L 83 - 85 33% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -3 +9 C+ A+ D- -12 F A D+
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 93% +17  8 - 10 3 - 3 +13 +8 C+ A+ D +6 C+ C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 252 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 59% +6  9 - 10 4 - 3 -6 -6 C F F -0 D C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 301 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 48% -2  9 - 11 4 - 4 -10 -13 F+ D F +3 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 97 High Point L 59 - 71 22% -6  9 - 12 4 - 5 -9 -9 F+ D+ F -2 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 86 - 66 83% +9  10 - 12 5 - 5 +4 +4 B+ F C- -0 F A- A-
 Sat, Feb 7 124 @Winthrop L 71 - 82 15%
 Thu, Feb 12 213 UNC Asheville W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 301 South Carolina Upstate W 75 - 69 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 265 @Presbyterian L 69 - 72 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 252 @Charleston Southern L 74 - 78 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 232 Radford W 80 - 79 55%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -6 -4 D+ C D- -2 D- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 2.1 10.8 5.5 0.5 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 15.0 7.4 0.2 24.5 4th
5th 1.8 16.0 11.6 0.4 29.9 5th
6th 0.3 8.2 9.9 0.7 19.1 6th
7th 1.9 4.2 0.4 6.5 7th
8th 0.7 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 9th
Total 2.9 14.4 28.2 29.4 18.6 5.8 0.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.6% 3.3% 3.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-6 5.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.5
9-7 18.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 18.0
8-8 29.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 28.6
7-9 28.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 27.6
6-10 14.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.3
5-11 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.8 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.7%