Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.6#332
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#332
Pace75.7#30
Improvement+4.4#30

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#257
First Shot-3.3#275
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks-0.2#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.6#363
Freethrows-1.2#265
Improvement+2.2#76

Defense
Total Defense-7.6#353
First Shot-8.2#358
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks-3.5#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#289
Freethrows-2.4#330
Improvement+2.2#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 5.6% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 2.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 88.3% 57.6%
Conference Champion 1.0% 4.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four3.4% 5.3% 3.0%
First Round1.3% 2.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 16.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 49 - 129 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 354   Mercyhurst L 73-78 69%     0 - 1 -20.7 -7.0 -13.7
  Nov 09, 2024 189   @ Longwood L 66-84 14%     0 - 2 -17.2 -9.9 -6.6
  Nov 16, 2024 343   NJIT W 81-69 65%     1 - 2 -2.6 +2.8 -5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 323   @ N.C. A&T L 83-86 38%     1 - 3 -10.5 -3.5 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2024 338   @ Buffalo L 73-82 44%     1 - 4 -18.1 -1.8 -16.5
  Nov 24, 2024 161   Towson L 60-64 21%     1 - 5 -6.0 -9.9 +3.7
  Nov 27, 2024 281   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-92 27%     1 - 6 -27.2 -16.3 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 303   @ Bowling Green L 81-102 32%     1 - 7 -26.7 -1.5 -23.5
  Dec 10, 2024 48   @ Xavier L 58-119 2%     1 - 8 -47.4 -11.1 -33.2
  Dec 15, 2024 175   Campbell W 86-76 24%     2 - 8 +6.8 +14.3 -7.5
  Dec 22, 2024 7   @ Iowa St. L 72-99 1%     2 - 9 -5.9 +7.2 -11.7
  Dec 29, 2024 90   @ Minnesota L 68-90 5%     2 - 10 -13.3 +4.3 -19.2
  Jan 04, 2025 228   South Carolina St. L 72-86 33%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -20.1 -3.9 -15.7
  Jan 07, 2025 294   NC Central W 102-98 2OT 48%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -6.0 +1.7 -8.6
  Jan 11, 2025 297   @ Howard L 95-100 30%     3 - 12 1 - 2 -10.3 +5.4 -15.2
  Jan 13, 2025 183   Norfolk St. W 78-74 25%     4 - 12 2 - 2 +0.3 +5.3 -4.9
  Jan 25, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 80-64 82%     5 - 12 3 - 2 -4.5 -1.6 -3.5
  Feb 01, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 76-63 82%     6 - 12 4 - 2 -7.1 -3.5 -3.2
  Feb 03, 2025 314   @ Delaware St. L 82-84 34%     6 - 13 4 - 3 -8.3 -1.6 -6.5
  Feb 15, 2025 228   @ South Carolina St. L 73-82 17%    
  Feb 17, 2025 294   @ NC Central L 77-82 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 297   Howard L 83-84 51%    
  Feb 24, 2025 183   @ Norfolk St. L 72-84 12%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-74 65%    
  Mar 03, 2025 314   Delaware St. W 81-80 54%    
  Mar 06, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 1st
2nd 1.1 4.9 1.2 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.8 9.5 3.7 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.6 9.8 9.8 0.3 20.5 4th
5th 0.9 9.0 16.2 1.2 27.2 5th
6th 1.6 9.0 14.6 3.3 28.4 6th
7th 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.6 7th
8th 8th
Total 2.4 10.5 24.3 30.1 21.5 9.1 1.9 0.2 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 81.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1
10-4 32.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-5 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.2% 27.3% 27.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
10-4 1.9% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.2 1.7
9-5 9.1% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.5 8.6
8-6 21.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.9 20.6
7-7 30.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 1.0 29.1
6-8 24.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.5 23.8
5-9 10.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 10.3
4-10 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%