Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#152
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#150
Pace72.6#69
Improvement-0.1#200

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#180
First Shot-3.0#265
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#26
Layup/Dunks+2.3#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#338
Freethrows-0.1#180
Improvement-2.1#289

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#152
First Shot+2.2#101
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#298
Layups/Dunks-0.3#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#87
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement+2.0#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 20.1% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 10.9% 14.3% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.8% 20.1% 16.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 77 - 9
Quad 412 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 103   @ Northern Iowa L 68-87 28%     0 - 1 -12.4 +0.0 -13.0
  Nov 13, 2024 190   @ Longwood L 62-76 49%     0 - 2 -13.2 -19.8 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2024 138   @ Duquesne W 80-74 38%     1 - 2 +9.7 +11.8 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 213   Portland St. W 91-74 72%     2 - 2 +11.6 +16.7 -5.2
  Nov 23, 2024 164   Wofford W 76-74 61%     3 - 2 -0.2 +5.6 -5.7
  Nov 24, 2024 133   St. Thomas W 69-65 56%     4 - 2 +3.2 -7.1 +10.3
  Nov 27, 2024 68   @ Central Florida L 76-84 18%     4 - 3 +2.4 +4.4 -1.8
  Nov 30, 2024 256   @ Southern Miss L 65-66 64%     4 - 4 -4.0 -0.5 -3.6
  Dec 05, 2024 167   Cleveland St. W 79-67 62%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +9.5 +13.2 -2.7
  Dec 11, 2024 345   @ Green Bay W 88-67 83%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +11.3 +9.8 +1.6
  Dec 15, 2024 98   Akron W 100-81 34%     7 - 4 +23.9 +11.0 +9.5
  Dec 29, 2024 334   IU Indianapolis W 88-81 90%     8 - 4 3 - 0 -6.3 +6.3 -12.4
  Jan 02, 2025 188   @ Oakland L 49-65 49%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -15.1 -17.5 +0.2
  Jan 04, 2025 327   @ Detroit Mercy W 64-56 79%     9 - 5 4 - 1 +0.1 -9.7 +9.8
  Jan 08, 2025 157   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-78 41%     9 - 6 4 - 2 -2.1 -9.0 +7.5
  Jan 11, 2025 345   Green Bay W 70-59 92%     10 - 6 5 - 2 -3.7 -8.7 +5.4
  Jan 17, 2025 187   Youngstown St. W 79-64 67%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +11.0 +5.7 +5.3
  Jan 19, 2025 175   Robert Morris L 79-81 64%     11 - 7 6 - 3 -5.1 +3.2 -8.2
  Jan 22, 2025 198   @ Wright St. W 95-79 51%     12 - 7 7 - 3 +16.5 +19.9 -3.4
  Jan 24, 2025 242   @ Northern Kentucky W 79-59 61%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +17.8 +11.1 +7.8
  Feb 02, 2025 157   Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-81 60%     13 - 8 8 - 4 -4.0 -1.2 -2.7
  Feb 05, 2025 334   @ IU Indianapolis W 84-80 OT 80%     14 - 8 9 - 4 -4.3 -2.3 -2.2
  Feb 08, 2025 167   @ Cleveland St. L 60-77 43%     14 - 9 9 - 5 -14.5 -12.6 -1.2
  Feb 14, 2025 198   Wright St. W 80-75 70%    
  Feb 16, 2025 242   Northern Kentucky W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 21, 2025 187   @ Youngstown St. L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 23, 2025 175   @ Robert Morris L 74-75 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 188   Oakland W 72-67 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 327   Detroit Mercy W 77-64 91%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.2 5.6 10.9 1st
2nd 2.9 16.2 3.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 14.8 4.5 19.8 3rd
4th 0.1 6.8 12.7 0.0 19.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 14.5 2.2 20.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.9 0.5 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 0.6 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 2.0 8.4 22.3 32.6 25.9 8.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 65.2% 5.6    2.4 3.0 0.3
14-6 20.1% 5.2    0.1 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.3
13-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 2.5 3.9 2.6 1.7 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 8.6% 28.8% 28.8% 13.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 6.1
14-6 25.9% 23.4% 23.4% 13.8 0.1 1.7 3.4 0.8 19.8
13-7 32.6% 18.8% 18.8% 14.2 0.0 0.6 3.7 1.7 0.1 26.5
12-8 22.3% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.1 19.1
11-9 8.4% 9.9% 9.9% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 7.6
10-10 2.0% 5.5% 5.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.9
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.6 4.0 9.4 4.6 0.2 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 13.0 19.8 57.1 22.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%