Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#326
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#310
Pace62.6#344
Improvement-2.1#319

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#324
First Shot-6.1#335
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#149
Layup/Dunks-2.2#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#327
Freethrows-4.9#357
Improvement+1.5#62

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#300
First Shot-2.4#257
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#284
Layups/Dunks-1.8#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement-3.6#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 21.1% 44.7% 18.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 74.2% 62.8%
Conference Champion 6.9% 10.6% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 2.9% 6.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 9.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 411 - 911 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 62 @Northwestern L 47-70 3%     0 - 1 -11.2 -20.4 +8.4
  Thu, Nov 6 262 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 25%     1 - 1 +5.5 +0.5 +5.4
  Wed, Nov 12 354 @Canisius L 55-58 53%     1 - 2 -13.3 -13.7 +0.0
  Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86-72 79%     2 - 2 -4.0 +6.8 -10.3
  Thu, Nov 20 108 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 7%     2 - 3 +1.8 +5.1 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 23 153 @Marshall L 60-69 12%     2 - 4 -5.9 -4.6 -2.3
  Sun, Nov 30 67 @West Virginia L 38-70 4%     2 - 5 -20.6 -22.2 -3.4
  Fri, Dec 5 325 @Lafayette L 71-79 38%     2 - 6 -14.3 +3.5 -18.7
  Sat, Dec 13 139 @Davidson L 60-74 10%    
  Wed, Dec 17 60 @Syracuse L 57-79 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 353 Binghamton W 70-63 74%    
  Fri, Jan 2 361 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-66 79%    
  Sun, Jan 4 307 Le Moyne W 74-72 56%    
  Thu, Jan 8 226 @LIU Brooklyn L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 300 @Wagner L 65-70 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 339 Stonehill W 68-63 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 264 Central Connecticut St. L 64-65 47%    
  Fri, Jan 23 337 @New Haven L 63-65 45%    
  Sun, Jan 25 350 Chicago St. W 73-67 72%    
  Thu, Jan 29 337 New Haven W 66-62 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 350 @Chicago St. W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 363 St. Francis (PA) W 73-64 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 361 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-69 59%    
  Thu, Feb 19 300 Wagner W 68-67 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 226 LIU Brooklyn L 69-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 264 @Central Connecticut St. L 61-68 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 339 @Stonehill L 65-66 46%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.4 3.3 1.1 0.1 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.8 4.1 0.7 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.3 4.8 0.8 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.1 5.1 0.8 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.6 1.0 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.2 1.2 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.8 1.3 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.8 9.6 13.4 14.8 14.5 13.2 10.2 6.1 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 91.1% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
13-3 67.3% 2.3    1.4 0.8 0.1
12-4 33.7% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
11-5 8.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.1
15-1 0.4% 0.4
14-2 1.3% 1.3
13-3 3.4% 3.4
12-4 6.1% 6.1
11-5 10.2% 10.2
10-6 13.2% 13.2
9-7 14.5% 14.5
8-8 14.8% 14.8
7-9 13.4% 13.4
6-10 9.6% 9.6
5-11 6.8% 6.8
4-12 3.8% 3.8
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%