Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#290
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#314
Pace65.0#265
Improvement-0.2#201

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#330
First Shot-3.6#284
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#319
Layup/Dunks-2.7#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement-1.8#274

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot+0.3#178
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#287
Layups/Dunks-2.1#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#61
Freethrows-1.1#266
Improvement+1.6#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.8% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 22.0% 36.3% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 5.4% 21.1%
First Four6.1% 7.1% 5.0%
First Round3.5% 4.3% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 412 - 1312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 40   @ Villanova L 63-75 3%     0 - 1 +2.4 -4.1 +6.3
  Nov 09, 2024 220   @ La Salle L 60-81 27%     0 - 2 -21.7 -13.0 -8.4
  Nov 12, 2024 277   Penn W 65-63 57%     1 - 2 -6.8 -0.3 -6.1
  Nov 16, 2024 129   @ Cornell L 71-81 15%     1 - 3 -5.8 -2.3 -3.7
  Nov 20, 2024 126   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 14%     1 - 4 -9.4 -0.7 -8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 318   LIU Brooklyn W 75-56 68%     2 - 4 +7.1 +2.7 +4.9
  Nov 30, 2024 305   Niagara W 59-47 64%     3 - 4 +1.2 -15.4 +17.4
  Dec 01, 2024 302   Binghamton L 81-82 OT 63%     3 - 5 -11.6 -1.8 -9.8
  Dec 07, 2024 353   @ Mercyhurst W 77-73 64%     4 - 5 -6.8 +6.3 -12.7
  Dec 18, 2024 119   @ George Washington L 62-82 13%     4 - 6 -14.8 -3.0 -13.0
  Dec 21, 2024 314   @ Portland L 64-74 47%     4 - 7 -16.4 -14.6 -1.6
  Dec 29, 2024 321   Stonehill L 65-70 69%     4 - 8 -17.2 -12.5 -4.8
  Jan 02, 2025 294   Boston University W 60-46 62%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +3.8 -5.7 +12.0
  Jan 05, 2025 286   @ Navy L 70-71 40%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -5.5 -0.7 -4.9
  Jan 08, 2025 239   @ Bucknell L 62-65 OT 31%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -5.1 -12.1 +7.0
  Jan 11, 2025 317   Holy Cross W 82-65 67%     6 - 10 2 - 2 +5.3 +4.9 +1.0
  Jan 15, 2025 288   @ Army L 68-70 40%     6 - 11 2 - 3 -6.6 +1.1 -8.0
  Jan 18, 2025 232   Colgate L 67-90 47%     6 - 12 2 - 4 -29.3 -9.9 -19.7
  Jan 22, 2025 319   @ Loyola Maryland W 80-59 50%     7 - 12 3 - 4 +13.9 +11.1 +4.6
  Jan 25, 2025 273   @ Lehigh L 47-86 37%     7 - 13 3 - 5 -42.8 -24.4 -20.1
  Jan 29, 2025 248   American L 68-75 51%     7 - 14 3 - 6 -14.4 -2.6 -12.5
  Feb 01, 2025 232   @ Colgate W 76-61 29%     8 - 14 4 - 6 +13.6 +9.2 +6.1
  Feb 05, 2025 319   Loyola Maryland L 58-71 68%     8 - 15 4 - 7 -25.1 -13.6 -13.0
  Feb 08, 2025 286   Navy W 61-51 59%     9 - 15 5 - 7 +0.5 -13.7 +14.6
  Feb 10, 2025 248   @ American L 58-60 33%     9 - 16 5 - 8 -4.5 -7.9 +3.1
  Feb 15, 2025 239   Bucknell L 67-68 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 317   @ Holy Cross L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 273   Lehigh W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 288   Army W 69-67 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 294   @ Boston University L 62-64 42%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 2.4 5.3 4th
5th 0.1 7.2 10.9 0.9 19.0 5th
6th 3.9 15.5 3.7 0.0 23.2 6th
7th 1.5 16.4 7.7 0.2 25.7 7th
8th 0.2 6.2 8.0 0.3 14.7 8th
9th 1.2 5.8 0.9 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 1.8 1.2 0.0 3.0 10th
Total 3.2 14.6 29.4 30.8 17.7 4.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 4.3% 14.8% 14.8% 15.9 0.1 0.6 3.7
9-9 17.7% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 2.0 15.7
8-10 30.8% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 2.2 28.6
7-11 29.4% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 1.3 28.2
6-12 14.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 14.3
5-13 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 6.4 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 15.9 9.4 90.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 1.7%