Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -5.1 253
Results Rating -3.7 231
Consistency 0.14 107
Pace 70.5 125
Improvement +0.5 167

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 238 C- D+ C+ D C+
Defense D+ 255 D- D- A- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 230 C- 57% 206 -1.6 238
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 240 D- 32% 335 -2.3 288
Three Pointers 46% 75 C- 33% 226 +1.9 114
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 151 D+ -2.1 257
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 232
Second Chance D 24.7% 328 C 1.04 156 D+ 0.26 300
Opponents' Steals B 8.1% 54
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 290
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 147
Freethrows D+ 0.28 268 F+ 66% 354 D 0.18 324
Total Offense C- -2.4 238

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 41% 299 C 11.3% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 353 C 5.6% 229
Three Pointers C- 81% 250 C 0.9% 186
Total D+ 51% 272 C 5.5% 178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 103 F+ 66% 347 +5.0 337
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 294 C- 40% 249 -1.1 105
Three Pointers 41% 162 D+ 35% 250 +1.1 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 296 D- +4.3 329
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 331
Second Chance D- 34.9% 332 D+ 1.10 285 D- 0.39 333
Turnovers from Steals A 13.6% 5
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 205
Turnovers A- 20.7% 20
Freethrows D 0.35 303 F 78% 362 D- 0.27 334
Total Defense D+ -2.6 255

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 327 D+ 8.4% 278
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 230 D+ 3.4% 271
Three Pointers C- 85% 220 C 1.0% 130
Total D+ 61% 299 D+ 4.5% 265

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 157 16.9 105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 82 0.20 283
Consistency 0.15 332 0.14 287
Improvement +0.5 159 +0.0 193

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 272 252 226
Results Rating Rank 263 231 204
Conference Record 11 - 11 12 - 10 13 - 9
Conference Finish 6 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 44 - 12
Quad 48 - 713 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 23 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 2% -15  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F -15 F F+ B- A- +8 C- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 317 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 57% -5  18% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -18 F F B+ B- +3 B- F A
 Wed, Nov 12 151 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 21% -3  8% 0 - 3 C -2 D+ -3 C- A- F C+ +1 D+ B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 122 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 15% -11  1% 0 - 4 D- -14 D+ -2 D- A F+ F -10 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 63 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 7% -12  0% 0 - 5 C- -2 C- -2 C- B- D+ C+ +2 D- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 182 @Tulane L 72 - 82 26% -7  9% 0 - 6 D -8 C- -1 A F B- D- -7 F B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 70 @Creighton L 76 - 96 7% -15  3% 0 - 7 D -9 B +6 A F A+ F -15 F F+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 271 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 66% +3  76% 1 - 7 1 - 0 C- -2 D+ -3 C F B+ C+ +1 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 295 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 71% +11  97% 2 - 7 2 - 0 C+ +4 C- -1 D+ D+ A+ B+ +5 D C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 118 @Pacific L 82 - 95 15% -7  0% 2 - 8 D+ -7 B+ +8 A+ F F F -15 F F A
 Mon, Dec 29 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 29% +3  63% 3 - 8 3 - 0 B- +6 A +12 B+ A+ C+ D -6 F D- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 20% +2  65% 4 - 8 4 - 0 B- +6 C- -2 C- B- F A- +8 B F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 309 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 74% +12  99% 5 - 8 5 - 0 B +10 D+ -3 C- D+ D A+ +12 B- C- A+
 Mon, Jan 5 269 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 66% +2  54% 6 - 8 6 - 0 D+ -7 D+ -4 C+ F B+ D+ -3 D+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 194 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 28% +7  81% 7 - 8 7 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +24 A+ A- A- F+ -9 F F A
 Mon, Jan 12 85 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 9% -15  8% 7 - 9 7 - 1 F+ -16 D- -6 B- F C- D- -8 F D B-
 Sat, Jan 17 220 Lamar L 80 - 90 55% -5  15% 7 - 10 7 - 2 F+ -16 B- +5 C+ B- D F -21 F F A
 Mon, Jan 19 103 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 27% -16  0% 7 - 11 7 - 3 F+ -16 D- -8 F C+ B- F+ -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 290 @SE Louisiana L 61 - 67 48% -2  45% 7 - 12 7 - 4 D -11 F -14 F F C B +4 D+ B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 194 New Orleans L 62 - 80 50% -9  8% 7 - 13 7 - 5 F -23 F -20 F F+ F+ C- -2 C F A
 Sat, Jan 31 309 @East Texas A&M W 72 - 68 53% +6  92% 8 - 13 8 - 5 C- -2 D+ -3 D+ D+ C+ C+ +1 C- A- B
 Mon, Feb 2 269 @Northwestern St. W 61 - 58 43% +9  89% 9 - 13 9 - 5 C -0 F+ -8 F C- D+ A- +8 A+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 7 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76 - 83 51% -2  22% 9 - 14 9 - 6 D- -12 B- +4 C B A+ F -16 F F+ B-
 Mon, Feb 9 144 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 92 38% -14  1% 9 - 15 9 - 7 F -22 D+ -3 C- D+ A- F -19 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 271 @Incarnate Word W 91 - 83 43% +9  97% 10 - 15 10 - 7 C+ +5 A+ +18 A+ F A+ F -13 D+ F F
 Mon, Feb 16 295 @Houston Christian L 68 - 72 50% -5  16% 10 - 16 10 - 8 D -9 D- -7 F C B+ C- -2 B F F
 Sat, Feb 21 103 @Stephen F. Austin L 78 - 81 13% -4  11% 10 - 17 10 - 9 C+ +4 A +11 A+ F+ D- D- -7 C F B
 Mon, Feb 23 220 @Lamar W 53 - 52 33% -3  13% 11 - 17 11 - 9 C +1 F -17 F C+ F A+ +17 A B A
 Sat, Feb 28 290 SE Louisiana W 73 - 67 70%
 Mon, Mar 2 85 McNeese St. L 70 - 79 20%
Totals 12 - 18 12 - 10 -5 C- -2 D- D+ C+ D+ -3 C- F+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D- C- D+ 37% 32% 46% C+ C- D C D+ C+ D+ F+ D D+ F+ C- D+ D- 42% 17% 41% D+ D- D- D+ D- A- D F D-
1.05 57% 32% 33% -2 0 0.98 25% 1.0 .26 16% .28 66% .18 1.12 66% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 35% 1.1 .39 21% .35 78% .22
Nov
4		 Kentucky F A+ F F F 20% 31% 49% D- F F C F+ B- A D B+ A- F A+ A C 45% 12% 43% F+ C- C A+ A+ A- D A+ B
0.73 70% 20% 17% -16 -3 0.65 12% 0.8 .10 16% .37 68% .25 1.10 83% 17% 27% +4 +2 1.14 38% 0.5 .20 19% .39 55% .21
Nov
7		 Eastern Illinois F C+ F F F 33% 24% 43% F+ F C- F F B+ A+ F B B- B+ A- A B+ 40% 26% 35% D- B- F+ F F A F C- F
0.82 63% 8% 19% -15 -1 0.69 33% 0.4 .13 16% .46 63% .29 0.93 47% 27% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 23% .54 76% .41
Nov
12		 Valparaiso D+ D F B- C 25% 18% 57% D+ C- D- A+ A- F D F F C+ B+ B- F D 27% 40% 33% A D+ C- A+ B+ C- F D F
1.00 55% 25% 36% -2 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15 1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31
Nov
15		 Murray St. D+ F C- D F+ 47% 14% 39% A- D- B+ B+ A F+ F A+ D F D+ D+ F F 36% 16% 48% C F F F F A+ F F F
1.04 44% 38% 32% -8 +1 0.89 40% 1.2 .47 20% .21 85% .18 1.31 63% 43% 57% +19 0 1.41 52% 1.3 .70 26% .54 83% .45
Nov
22		 Oklahoma St. C- A+ F F C 22% 24% 54% F C- C A- B- D+ C F+ D+ C+ F A+ F F+ 52% 16% 32% C+ D- A+ A A+ A- D- F F
0.99 92% 29% 25% -2 -2 0.95 29% 1.3 .36 20% .26 65% .17 1.17 76% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.21 19% 0.8 .15 18% .41 93% .38
Nov
28		 Tulane C- F+ A+ A+ A 40% 19% 42% C+ A F F F B- A+ F D D- F D- F+ F 42% 15% 44% D F D+ A+ B- B F+ A C-
1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19 1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30
Dec
2		 Creighton B A+ F A+ A 45% 25% 30% B- A F F F A+ B C- B- F F F F F 27% 13% 60% C F B- F F+ B+ A+ F A
1.11 72% 0% 53% +5 0 1.13 17% 0.3 .06 9% .26 69% .18 1.40 80% 57% 48% +21 0 1.45 26% 1.5 .39 18% .12 100% .12
Dec
6		 Incarnate Word D+ F F A+ C- 49% 10% 41% B+ C F B- F B+ A+ C- A+ C+ C+ A A+ A+ 42% 31% 27% C+ A+ F F F B- F D+ F
1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47 1.03 53% 29% 8% -16 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41
Dec
17		 Houston Christian C- B A- F+ D+ 39% 19% 42% D+ D+ F+ B D+ A+ F C F B+ D D- A+ D+ 62% 17% 21% F D A+ F C- A+ F B+ F
1.14 68% 45% 29% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.2 .31 10% .18 73% .13 0.93 62% 43% 22% -1 +2 1.05 19% 1.4 .27 26% .49 64% .31
Dec
21		 Pacific B+ A+ F A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% A+ A+ C- F F F A- F D+ F F F F F 43% 35% 23% A F C F F A F D- F
1.14 77% 25% 45% +16 +2 1.38 24% 0.5 .12 19% .40 52% .21 1.32 82% 64% 44% +23 -2 1.45 35% 1.6 .55 25% .67 81% .54
Dec
29		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A F+ A+ A+ B 50% 7% 43% A B+ C- A+ A+ C+ F A+ C D D D- F F 45% 16% 39% D F D F+ D- A+ A- F C+
1.20 50% 67% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 1.7 .48 19% .33 88% .29 1.12 60% 43% 47% +9 +1 1.23 32% 1.1 .36 24% .27 77% .21
Dec
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- D+ C D+ D+ 35% 17% 48% C+ C- D+ A+ B- F A+ C A A- A+ C- D B+ 41% 16% 43% D+ B F C+ F+ A+ D D+ D-
1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32 0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22
Jan
3		 East Texas A&M D+ C- F B D+ 38% 8% 55% B- C- B+ F D+ D B+ F C+ A+ F B- A+ B+ 47% 6% 47% F B- F+ B+ C- A+ C+ B- B-
1.08 55% 0% 38% -1 +2 1.04 39% 0.8 .32 19% .37 64% .23 0.79 73% 33% 14% -8 +2 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 33% .22 64% .14
Jan
5		 Northwestern St. D+ A C F C 51% 10% 39% A- C+ F+ F F B+ A+ F C+ D+ D- F A+ C- 43% 14% 43% F D+ D- F F C+ D- B- D
1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25 1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26
Jan
10		 New Orleans A+ B C A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B- A+ B B+ A- A- F C+ F F+ D C F F 40% 20% 40% D F F A F A F F F
1.44 61% 40% 45% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.1 .46 11% .22 75% .16 1.23 63% 38% 44% +8 0 1.18 64% 0.8 .52 24% .50 88% .44
Jan
12		 McNeese St. D- D F B+ C+ 36% 4% 60% A- B- D- F F C- F F F D- D- B- F F 42% 20% 38% C F A F D B- D- F F
0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14 1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30
Jan
17		 Lamar B- C+ D- B C+ 37% 20% 43% C C+ D+ A+ B- D B+ A+ A+ F F F F F 32% 36% 32% C+ F F F F A F+ D- F
1.17 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 28% 1.3 .38 19% .43 79% .34 1.31 67% 53% 67% +24 -2 1.45 40% 1.5 .60 22% .30 75% .22
Jan
19		 Stephen F. Austin D- F B F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A- F+ C+ B- C+ B- B- F+ F D- F F 35% 20% 46% D F F A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23 1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30
Jan
24		 SE Louisiana F F B F F 33% 14% 53% B- F D- F F C B+ C B B C- D B+ D+ 33% 27% 40% C+ D+ F A+ B+ A+ F F F
0.86 38% 43% 23% -15 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .20 20% .42 75% .32 0.95 60% 42% 28% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.5 .19 26% .55 76% .42
Jan
27		 New Orleans F F F+ C F 32% 11% 57% C+ F F B F+ F+ F F F C- C+ A D- C+ 50% 23% 27% D- C F F F A F D- F
0.85 29% 33% 33% -10 +1 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 53% .14 1.09 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 25% .47 81% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 East Texas A&M D+ B+ C+ F C- 36% 28% 36% F D+ F A+ D+ C+ A+ D+ A C+ B- B- D+ C- 33% 17% 50% C+ C- F A+ A- B F F F
1.04 65% 38% 29% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.7 .33 16% .43 68% .29 0.98 53% 33% 35% -2 0 0.98 35% 0.4 .14 20% .36 75% .27
Feb
2		 Northwestern St. F+ F B D- F 45% 25% 30% C- F C D+ C- D+ C B C+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% F+ A+ D- F F A- F D- F
0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25 0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- A C F C 39% 16% 45% C+ C F+ A+ B A+ F+ F F F F F+ F F 53% 19% 28% D- F B F F+ B- F F F
1.12 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.7 .35 15% .35 65% .23 1.23 68% 44% 46% +12 +1 1.28 25% 1.5 .38 19% .42 83% .35
Feb
9		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ A+ B F C 31% 23% 46% D+ C- F A- D+ A- B- F D- F F B- D+ F 50% 7% 43% F F F F F A+ F F F
1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20 1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32
Feb
14		 Incarnate Word A+ A- F A+ A+ 65% 6% 29% A+ A+ F B- F A+ C- D- D+ F B- F B- C+ 49% 7% 44% F D+ F+ F F F A+ F B-
1.39 70% 0% 53% +14 +4 1.37 19% 1.2 .23 8% .36 68% .25 1.27 50% 75% 32% -3 +3 1.02 38% 1.3 .49 9% .17 100% .17
Feb
16		 Houston Christian D- F A+ F F 43% 24% 33% D F F A+ C B+ A+ D+ A+ C- C- C A+ B- 39% 35% 27% A B B F F F F D F
1.01 43% 50% 19% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.8 .38 15% .42 71% .30 1.07 58% 35% 23% -5 -2 0.88 25% 1.4 .36 10% .43 73% .31
Feb
21		 Stephen F. Austin A A- F A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% B+ A+ F A+ F+ D- F A D- D- D+ A+ C+ B- 31% 8% 61% F C D F F B F C F+
1.17 65% 20% 50% +13 +2 1.31 12% 1.7 .20 20% .21 82% .17 1.22 60% 0% 33% -3 +1 0.98 36% 1.8 .64 15% .32 67% .21
Feb
23		 Lamar F D+ B F F 33% 21% 46% C- F B- C- C+ F F F F A+ B- F A+ A+ 30% 23% 47% F+ A A- C- B A C+ D+ C
0.82 56% 40% 14% -14 0 0.73 35% 1.0 .35 22% .14 57% .08 0.80 50% 55% 14% -13 -1 0.74 27% 1.0 .27 22% .22 73% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 2.8 3rd
4th 4.0 9.3 13.3 4th
5th 1.3 24.9 2.8 29.1 5th
6th 23.5 31.4 54.8 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 24.8 60.4 14.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 14.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 14.5
12-10 60.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 60.2
11-11 24.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 24.7
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 99.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.7 25.8 74.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5%
Lose Out 12.4%