Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#166
Pace73.7#61
Improvement+0.0#180

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#95
First Shot+4.2#71
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#266
Layup/Dunks-2.4#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#13
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-1.7#276

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#232
First Shot-3.2#277
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#79
Layups/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#325
Freethrows+2.4#41
Improvement+1.7#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 25.1% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 98.1% 99.6% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 99.5% 95.9%
Conference Champion 28.9% 38.9% 20.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round21.9% 25.1% 19.1%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 415 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 85   @ Central Florida L 68-75 21%     0 - 1 +2.6 -1.5 +4.2
  Nov 12, 2024 247   Bethune-Cookman W 91-69 80%     1 - 1 +14.2 +12.7 +0.2
  Nov 16, 2024 331   Southern Indiana W 93-74 91%     2 - 1 +5.5 +16.8 -10.8
  Nov 20, 2024 53   @ Penn St. L 89-102 13%     2 - 2 +0.3 +19.6 -18.9
  Nov 25, 2024 178   Drexel W 87-81 57%     3 - 2 +5.2 +22.3 -16.6
  Nov 26, 2024 195   Radford L 56-69 60%     3 - 3 -14.6 -15.1 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-57 86%     4 - 3 +9.6 +5.9 +5.1
  Dec 05, 2024 333   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-79 80%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -8.8 +4.0 -12.7
  Dec 08, 2024 245   Robert Morris W 82-77 79%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -2.5 -2.6 -0.5
  Dec 11, 2024 325   IU Indianapolis W 78-76 89%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -10.7 -1.5 -9.2
  Dec 15, 2024 318   @ Eastern Michigan W 121-94 75%     7 - 4 +21.0 +22.3 -6.1
  Dec 22, 2024 10   @ Michigan L 58-89 4%     7 - 5 -9.6 -5.7 -3.9
  Dec 29, 2024 329   @ Green Bay W 83-67 79%     8 - 5 3 - 1 +8.5 +8.9 +0.3
  Jan 01, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 68-69 OT 54%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -1.1 -1.2 +0.0
  Jan 04, 2025 199   Youngstown St. W 90-81 71%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +4.3 +6.8 -3.7
  Jan 08, 2025 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-73 65%     10 - 6 5 - 2 +2.1 -4.3 +5.8
  Jan 11, 2025 333   Detroit Mercy W 90-67 91%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +9.3 +16.5 -5.9
  Jan 15, 2025 183   @ Wright St. L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 22, 2025 180   @ Oakland L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 325   @ IU Indianapolis W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 30, 2025 186   Cleveland St. W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 02, 2025 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 05, 2025 183   Wright St. W 82-77 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 329   Green Bay W 87-73 91%    
  Feb 12, 2025 199   @ Youngstown St. L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 245   @ Robert Morris W 78-76 59%    
  Feb 21, 2025 180   Oakland W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 75-68 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 186   @ Cleveland St. L 76-77 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.8 10.4 7.7 3.3 0.6 28.9 1st
2nd 0.7 6.2 10.1 4.8 0.7 0.0 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.9 9.5 3.4 0.2 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 7.1 3.5 0.2 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.2 3.6 0.2 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.4 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.3 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 9.6 15.8 20.4 19.4 15.4 8.5 3.4 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-3 99.3% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-4 91.6% 7.7    6.0 1.7 0.1
15-5 67.7% 10.4    5.3 4.4 0.7 0.0
14-6 29.7% 5.8    1.4 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-7 4.9% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 16.6 8.9 2.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.6% 45.5% 45.5% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 3.4% 39.4% 39.4% 12.9 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0
16-4 8.5% 35.1% 35.1% 13.3 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1 5.5
15-5 15.4% 31.1% 31.1% 13.9 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 10.6
14-6 19.4% 23.4% 23.4% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.6 0.0 14.8
13-7 20.4% 20.5% 20.5% 14.5 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.2 16.2
12-8 15.8% 15.2% 15.2% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.2 13.4
11-9 9.6% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 8.5
10-10 4.7% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4
9-11 1.8% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-12 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 1.0 4.3 8.9 6.9 0.8 78.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.0 18.4 59.6 21.3 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%