Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#16
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#27
Pace69.8#163
Improvement+1.4#90

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#38
First Shot+4.3#65
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#68
Layup/Dunks+6.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#109
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement-1.7#304

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#6
First Shot+8.7#8
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#201
Layups/Dunks+3.7#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#140
Freethrows+2.4#50
Improvement+3.0#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.5%
#1 Seed 7.6% 8.9% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 19.3% 22.2% 9.4%
Top 4 Seed 46.4% 50.9% 31.0%
Top 6 Seed 68.8% 73.4% 53.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.4% 94.4% 85.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.4% 93.5% 84.5%
Average Seed 4.8 4.6 5.8
.500 or above 97.9% 98.8% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 91.9% 76.9%
Conference Champion 21.4% 25.0% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four2.5% 1.8% 4.6%
First Round91.2% 93.5% 83.3%
Second Round70.1% 73.5% 58.7%
Sweet Sixteen38.2% 41.1% 28.1%
Elite Eight17.5% 19.2% 12.0%
Final Four8.1% 9.0% 5.0%
Championship Game3.6% 4.0% 2.2%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 0.8%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 7
Quad 27 - 215 - 9
Quad 34 - 020 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 259   Cleveland St. W 101-53 98%     1 - 0 +39.6 +20.0 +16.5
  Nov 10, 2024 89   Wake Forest L 70-72 80%     1 - 1 +4.0 +4.3 -0.3
  Nov 15, 2024 78   TCU W 76-64 85%     2 - 1 +16.1 +4.5 +11.1
  Nov 18, 2024 198   Miami (OH) W 94-67 96%     3 - 1 +22.3 +16.1 +5.1
  Nov 21, 2024 323   Tarleton St. W 72-49 99%     4 - 1 +11.0 +1.2 +11.7
  Nov 25, 2024 129   Virginia Tech W 75-63 89%     5 - 1 +13.7 +4.1 +9.6
  Nov 27, 2024 68   Xavier W 78-53 74%     6 - 1 +33.5 +8.2 +25.0
  Dec 03, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 48%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +18.5 +3.0 +15.7
  Dec 07, 2024 50   Iowa W 82-74 77%    
  Dec 10, 2024 33   Arkansas W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 18, 2024 41   Oklahoma W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 22, 2024 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-67 95%    
  Dec 29, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 84-69 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 106   @ USC W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 07, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 12, 2025 75   Washington W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 16, 2025 112   @ Minnesota W 69-60 78%    
  Jan 19, 2025 66   Northwestern W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 24, 2025 21   @ Purdue L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 27, 2025 31   Penn St. W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 58   @ Rutgers W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 22   Oregon W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 39   @ Indiana W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 11, 2025 21   Purdue W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 16, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 21, 2025 27   Michigan St. W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 24, 2025 44   @ Nebraska W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 58   Rutgers W 78-69 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 14   Illinois W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 05, 2025 19   Maryland W 74-71 62%    
  Mar 09, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.9 5.3 3.0 1.1 0.2 21.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.4 5.7 2.6 0.5 0.1 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.5 1.9 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.2 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.2 7.5 10.5 12.6 13.8 13.2 12.1 8.7 5.8 3.1 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 98.2% 3.0    2.8 0.2
17-3 91.2% 5.3    4.4 0.8 0.0 0.0
16-4 68.0% 5.9    3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 36.5% 4.4    1.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.3% 1.4    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 13.4 5.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.8% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.7% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 2.4 1.6 3.4 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.1% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 3.1 0.9 2.7 4.3 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.2% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 4.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 4.0 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.8% 99.8% 10.3% 89.5% 4.9 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.3 3.7 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 12.6% 99.3% 5.9% 93.4% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 10.5% 97.7% 3.9% 93.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 97.6%
10-10 7.5% 91.4% 2.8% 88.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.6 91.1%
9-11 5.2% 69.3% 0.9% 68.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.6 69.0%
8-12 3.4% 37.1% 0.7% 36.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 2.1 36.7%
7-13 1.7% 6.6% 6.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 6.6%
6-14 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.7 0.5%
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.4% 12.2% 80.2% 4.8 7.6 11.7 13.9 13.2 11.8 10.7 8.3 5.8 4.1 2.8 2.5 0.2 7.6 91.4%