Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#136
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#174
Pace69.1#177
Improvement+0.7#142

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#88
First Shot+7.8#23
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#355
Layup/Dunks+0.0#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#25
Freethrows-1.7#274
Improvement+0.1#176

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#231
First Shot-2.0#238
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#175
Layups/Dunks-5.5#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#35
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement+0.6#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 24.9% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 89.0% 92.9% 79.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 95.3% 83.9%
Conference Champion 28.2% 33.7% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round23.0% 24.8% 18.9%
Second Round2.3% 2.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Away) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 62-103 5%     0 - 1 -20.3 -5.6 -12.4
  Nov 09, 2024 198   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 50%     1 - 1 +14.3 +8.4 +5.7
  Nov 13, 2024 203   @ Toledo L 77-86 51%     1 - 2 -7.9 -0.4 -7.3
  Nov 21, 2024 108   Princeton W 80-62 41%     2 - 2 +21.9 +10.9 +11.9
  Nov 22, 2024 71   Bradley L 74-77 26%     2 - 3 +5.0 +13.2 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2024 148   South Florida L 72-73 53%     2 - 4 -0.4 +0.5 -0.9
  Nov 30, 2024 286   Air Force W 70-57 85%     3 - 4 +3.5 +0.3 +4.8
  Dec 05, 2024 144   @ Oakland L 64-66 40%     3 - 5 0 - 1 +2.0 +3.0 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 298   @ Detroit Mercy W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 11, 2024 195   Marshall W 81-75 71%    
  Dec 18, 2024 229   Youngstown St. W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 21, 2024 299   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-69 71%    
  Dec 29, 2024 259   @ Cleveland St. W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 02, 2025 310   Green Bay W 86-74 87%    
  Jan 09, 2025 144   Oakland W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 12, 2025 275   @ Robert Morris W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 22, 2025 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 298   Detroit Mercy W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 30, 2025 229   @ Youngstown St. W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 02, 2025 275   Robert Morris W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 05, 2025 150   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 356   IU Indianapolis W 84-66 94%    
  Feb 14, 2025 172   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 16, 2025 310   @ Green Bay W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 21, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 259   Cleveland St. W 77-67 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 356   @ IU Indianapolis W 81-69 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.7 8.1 6.2 2.8 0.8 28.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.0 7.6 6.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.8 0.2 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.9 6.2 9.4 12.1 14.0 15.1 13.9 10.8 6.8 2.8 0.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 98.5% 2.8    2.6 0.1
17-3 91.8% 6.2    5.3 0.9 0.0
16-4 74.5% 8.1    5.6 2.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 47.9% 6.7    3.1 2.8 0.7 0.0
14-6 20.6% 3.1    0.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.2% 28.2 18.3 7.6 2.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.8% 54.7% 54.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
18-2 2.8% 47.8% 47.8% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5
17-3 6.8% 42.0% 42.0% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.9
16-4 10.8% 35.2% 35.2% 13.4 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.2 7.0
15-5 13.9% 30.3% 30.3% 13.7 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 9.7
14-6 15.1% 25.3% 25.3% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.2 0.1 11.3
13-7 14.0% 19.4% 19.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.2 11.3
12-8 12.1% 16.6% 16.6% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 10.1
11-9 9.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 8.3
10-10 6.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 5.6
9-11 3.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.7
8-12 2.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
7-13 1.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.9 7.8 5.4 1.5 76.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.2 0.6 3.7 4.3 9.1 36.0 42.1 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%