Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.0 #359
Expected Predictive Rating -20.9 #361
Pace 65.0 #285
Improvement -0.6 #220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #360 F D C D+ D
Defense #327 D D D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 0.93 #361 -4.9 #335
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #31 0.67 #311 +2.0 #79
Three Pointers 33% #337 0.86 #341 -6.9 #351
1st FG Attempt 0.83 #364 -9.8 #364
Freethrows 0.29 #213 67% #326 0.20 #256
Second Chance 26.2% #298 0.97 #274 0.25 #303
Turnovers 16.1% #158
Total Offense -9.5 #360

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.30 #335 -6.3 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #301 0.73 #135 +2.0 #46
Three Pointers 40% #225 1.08 #269 -0.5 #203
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #324 -4.8 #320
Freethrows 0.31 #225 74% #278 0.23 #247
Second Chance 33.7% #306 1.15 #305 0.39 #327
Turnovers 14.2% #310
Total Defense -5.5 #327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #322 1.9% #334
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -16.6% #363 7.8% #317
Possession Length 19.5 #347 16.4 #36
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #343 0.25 #353
Improvement -1.7 #275 +1.1 #112

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 90.2% 80.5% 92.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 43 - 183 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 243 @Radford L 75 - 80 11% -5  0 - 1 -7 +9 D A+ C- -16 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0% -10  0 - 2 +0 +2 D- C- C -4 F+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 21% -7  0 - 3 -23 -15 D F F -8 D- B- C
 Fri, Nov 14 142 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 5% -6  0 - 4 -6 -3 D+ F+ B -4 B+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 234 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 23% -13  0 - 5 -27 -14 F B D+ -13 D- D- C
 Sun, Nov 23 280 North Dakota L 69 - 78 31% +1  0 - 6 -19 -14 D- D+ D- -5 D- B B+
 Tue, Dec 2 150 @Drake L 57 - 108 5% -26  0 - 7 -48 -8 F F+ B+ -44 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 280 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 15% +1  1 - 7 -1 -10 F A D +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 238 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 11% -13  1 - 8 0 - 1 -17 -1 D C- B+ -15 F F D
 Mon, Dec 22 262 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 27% +3  1 - 9 0 - 2 -14 -13 D F+ F -0 B F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 228 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 10% +15  1 - 10 0 - 3 -8 -5 B- F F -3 B B F+
 Sat, Jan 3 249 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 12% -9  1 - 11 0 - 4 -25 -19 F F F -8 D F C
 Thu, Jan 8 229 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 22% -14  1 - 12 0 - 5 -29 -10 F D- B -18 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 338 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 47% +2  1 - 13 0 - 6 -19 -19 F F F -1 C B- C-
 Tue, Jan 13 313 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 20% -4  1 - 14 0 - 7 -8 -14 F D+ D+ +5 A- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 283 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 15% -6  1 - 15 0 - 8 -11 +7 F+ D+ A+ -18 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 300 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 17% -1  1 - 16 0 - 9 -10 -5 F C A- -5 B F D+
 Fri, Jan 23 324 @Southern Indiana L 64 - 96 23% -22  1 - 17 0 - 10 -39 -11 F D B -26 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 249 Southeast Missouri St. L 74 - 78 25% -2  1 - 18 0 - 11 -12 -0 D+ F A+ -12 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 31 228 Tennessee Martin L 62 - 70 22%
 Thu, Feb 5 338 @Tennessee Tech L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Tennessee St. L 66 - 80 9%
 Tue, Feb 10 313 Eastern Illinois L 63 - 66 40%
 Thu, Feb 12 283 Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 71 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 324 Southern Indiana L 66 - 68 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 300 Morehead St. L 68 - 72 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 262 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 70 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 238 Lindenwood L 68 - 76 24%
Totals 3 - 25 2 - 18 -15 -10 F D C -5 D D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.8 4.8 6.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 15.8 10th
11th 7.2 20.2 26.4 18.4 6.1 0.8 0.0 79.1 11th
Total 7.2 20.2 27.2 23.4 13.8 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 5.9% 5.9
4-16 13.8% 13.8
3-17 23.4% 23.4
2-18 27.2% 27.2
1-19 20.2% 20.2
0-20 7.2% 7.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.2%