Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#154
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#249
Pace67.3#244
Improvement+0.2#164

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#165
First Shot-1.2#204
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#99
Layup/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
Freethrows-2.4#310
Improvement+1.3#81

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#149
First Shot+1.3#125
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#254
Layups/Dunks-7.1#357
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#1
Freethrows+0.1#166
Improvement-1.1#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 21.8% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 75.0% 81.0% 57.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 93.1% 88.4%
Conference Champion 24.7% 26.8% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.8%
First Round20.1% 21.5% 15.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 75.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 414 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 80 @California L 67-77 18%     0 - 1 +0.1 -1.0 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 168 Toledo L 71-81 66%     0 - 2 -13.8 -3.1 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 255 Radford W 92-59 71%     1 - 2 +27.6 +12.6 +14.0
  Sun, Nov 16 129 Kent St. L 72-76 OT 45%     1 - 3 -2.3 -5.8 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 346 @Stetson W 79-62 81%     2 - 3 +8.2 +8.7 +0.9
  Fri, Nov 28 58 @Butler L 69-94 13%     2 - 4 -12.4 -4.4 -6.2
  Wed, Dec 3 166 @Youngstown St. L 68-69 43%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +1.4 -1.3 +2.7
  Sun, Dec 7 266 Green Bay W 86-58 81%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +19.3 +10.3 +10.0
  Sat, Dec 13 157 @Marshall L 74-76 40%     3 - 6 +1.1 +10.2 -9.4
  Tue, Dec 16 103 Miami (OH) L 76-83 46%     3 - 7 -5.4 +0.0 -5.2
  Mon, Dec 22 227 Eastern Michigan W 73-66 75%    
  Mon, Dec 29 144 Oakland W 81-79 59%    
  Thu, Jan 1 231 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-70 76%    
  Sun, Jan 4 357 @IU Indianapolis W 89-78 86%    
  Fri, Jan 9 297 @Detroit Mercy W 75-70 67%    
  Sun, Jan 11 144 @Oakland L 78-82 37%    
  Thu, Jan 15 166 Youngstown St. W 73-69 65%    
  Wed, Jan 21 329 Cleveland St. W 83-70 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 196 Northern Kentucky W 76-70 70%    
  Fri, Jan 30 231 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-73 56%    
  Sun, Feb 1 266 @Green Bay W 72-69 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 182 @Robert Morris L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 221 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-73 74%    
  Thu, Feb 12 297 Detroit Mercy W 78-67 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 329 @Cleveland St. W 80-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 19 357 IU Indianapolis W 92-75 94%    
  Sun, Feb 22 182 Robert Morris W 73-68 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 221 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-76 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 196 @Northern Kentucky L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.6 7.3 5.0 2.0 0.5 24.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.4 8.0 6.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 7.0 4.2 0.7 0.1 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.1 0.3 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.2 7.1 10.2 13.2 15.3 15.6 13.5 9.3 5.3 2.0 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 99.3% 2.0    1.9 0.1
17-3 94.8% 5.0    4.4 0.7 0.0
16-4 78.3% 7.3    4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 48.5% 6.6    3.0 2.8 0.6 0.1
14-6 18.6% 2.9    0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 15.4 7.0 1.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.5% 56.8% 56.8% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
18-2 2.0% 44.3% 44.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1
17-3 5.3% 40.4% 40.4% 13.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 3.2
16-4 9.3% 33.5% 33.5% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.0 6.2
15-5 13.5% 28.6% 28.6% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.5 0.1 9.7
14-6 15.6% 23.1% 23.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.3 12.0
13-7 15.3% 18.4% 18.4% 15.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 12.5
12-8 13.2% 13.9% 13.9% 15.4 0.1 1.1 0.7 11.4
11-9 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 9.1
10-10 7.1% 7.6% 7.6% 15.9 0.1 0.5 6.6
9-11 4.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.2 3.9
8-12 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 2.1
7-13 1.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.5 2.9 6.5 7.3 3.2 79.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.7 42.6 48.5 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%