Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #145
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #148
Pace 67.2 #225
Improvement +0.1 #177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 C B- C C+ C
Defense #211 C C C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #76 1.17 #153 +2.6 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #147 0.79 #126 +0.9 #126
Three Pointers 36% #291 1.01 #189 -2.7 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #150 +0.7 #150
Freethrows 0.32 #142 74% #113 0.24 #123
Second Chance 31.1% #162 1.15 #37 0.36 #84
Turnovers 16.6% #156
Total Offense +2.1 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #27 1.15 #175 -3.6 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #114 0.86 #321 -1.7 #309
Three Pointers 33% #354 0.96 #105 +4.9 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #191 -0.3 #191
Freethrows 0.31 #194 71% #108 0.22 #172
Second Chance 31.8% #231 1.03 #197 0.33 #217
Turnovers 17.5% #150
Total Defense -1.1 #211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #181 0.5% #209
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #151 0.2% #193
Possession Length 18.5 #300 16.9 #123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #290 0.17 #175
Improvement +3.5 #31 -3.4 #333

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.8% 29.5% 25.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 63.7% 75.7% 49.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.8% 29.5% 25.6%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 415 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 64 @California L 67 - 77 16% -6  0 - 1 +2 +1 D- B+ A+ +1 C+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 159 Toledo L 71 - 81 65% -4  0 - 2 -13 -2 B- B F -11 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 234 Radford W 92 - 59 69% +13  1 - 2 +29 +12 B+ B- B- +15 B+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 146 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 50% +2  1 - 3 -3 -5 D+ C+ C+ +2 A- D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 330 @Stetson W 79 - 62 79% +15  2 - 3 +10 +9 A- B F +2 C+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 66 @Butler L 69 - 94 17% -5  2 - 4 -14 -5 C- C- C -7 D- D- C-
 Wed, Dec 3 225 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 56% -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -2 -4 C D+ C +2 B- F A
 Sun, Dec 7 257 Green Bay W 86 - 58 81% +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +8 D+ A+ B- +13 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 153 @Marshall L 74 - 76 42% +1  3 - 6 +1 +11 B D A+ -10 C- D- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 90 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 42% -8  3 - 7 -4 -1 D- C- A- -3 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 236 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 78% +1  4 - 7 -1 -3 C F+ D +2 B- B+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 128 Oakland W 88 - 73 58% +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +14 +10 A+ C D +4 A- A- A
 Thu, Jan 1 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 81% +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -2 +4 F+ B A- -6 C C+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 340 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 82% +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -5 +6 D+ A+ F -10 D C- C
 Fri, Jan 9 278 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 67% +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -2 +7 B- D D- -9 C F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 128 @Oakland W 94 - 84 35% +17  9 - 7 6 - 1 +15 +16 A+ D F -2 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 225 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 77% +5  10 - 7 7 - 1 +3 +24 C A+ A+ -20 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 305 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 87% +0  10 - 8 7 - 2 -17 -3 F C+ A -15 D C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 194 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 73% +9  11 - 8 8 - 2 +3 +12 B- C A+ -9 F C B-
 Fri, Jan 30 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 69 63% +5  12 - 8 9 - 2 +5 -2 D B+ D- +6 C+ B C-
 Sun, Feb 1 257 @Green Bay W 83 - 75 63% +9  13 - 8 10 - 2 +6 +14 C C A+ -7 C F C
 Wed, Feb 4 220 @Robert Morris W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79 - 72 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 278 Detroit Mercy W 83 - 73 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 305 @Cleveland St. W 84 - 78 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 340 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 75 93%
 Sun, Feb 22 220 Robert Morris W 77 - 70 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 194 @Northern Kentucky W 78 - 77 50%
Totals 19 - 10 16 - 4 +1 +2 C B- C -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 11.7 23.1 19.9 6.5 63.7 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 10.2 12.9 5.2 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.4 5.3 13.8 24.7 28.3 19.9 6.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 6.5    6.5
17-3 100.0% 19.9    15.9 4.0
16-4 81.5% 23.1    13.3 9.8 0.0
15-5 47.4% 11.7    4.4 6.9 0.5
14-6 17.0% 2.3    0.5 1.4 0.5
13-7 3.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 63.7% 63.7 40.5 22.1 1.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 6.5% 36.7% 36.7% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.1 4.1
17-3 19.9% 33.9% 33.9% 13.5 0.4 3.3 2.7 0.3 13.2
16-4 28.3% 28.4% 28.4% 13.8 0.0 2.7 4.3 1.0 0.0 20.3
15-5 24.7% 25.2% 25.2% 14.1 0.0 0.9 3.8 1.5 0.0 18.5
14-6 13.8% 22.5% 22.5% 14.4 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.1 10.7
13-7 5.3% 20.3% 20.3% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 4.2
12-8 1.4% 13.3% 13.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
11-9 0.2% 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.8% 27.8% 0.0% 13.8 72.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 12.6 1.7 43.9 48.5 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%