Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Utah Valley 41.7%   14   12 - 6 5 - 3 +3.8      +0.9 139 +3.0 95 72.3 87 +3.9 104 +0.3 3
139 California Baptist 23.8%   15 - 6 5 - 3 +1.3      -0.8 188 +2.1 109 63.5 318 +4.8 94 +1.6 2
158 Texas Arlington 19.7%   11 - 6 5 - 2 +0.2      -3.5 274 +3.7 74 65.8 267 +3.2 118 +2.8 1
187 Tarleton St. 6.8%   7 - 9 2 - 5 -1.9      -1.2 195 -0.7 193 75.5 35 -2.0 201 -6.3 7
223 Utah Tech 4.9%   8 - 11 4 - 4 -3.7      -1.5 209 -2.2 245 68.0 208 -2.8 216 -1.8 4
252 Abilene Christian 2.3%   7 - 9 2 - 4 -5.1      -4.4 291 -0.7 194 66.4 250 -2.4 212 -5.1 6
282 Southern Utah 0.8%   4 - 14 3 - 5 -7.1      -4.4 293 -2.6 256 74.2 52 -7.8 289 -3.8 5


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 139 California Baptist 78 109 Utah Valley 71   
Sat, Jan 24 282 Southern Utah 91 223 Utah Tech 102   
Mon, Jan 26 252 Abilene Christian 0 187 Tarleton St. 0   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 187 Tarleton St. 77 109 Utah Valley 80 60%   
Thu, Jan 29 252 Abilene Christian 72 223 Utah Tech 70 56%   
Thu, Jan 29 282 Southern Utah 66 158 Texas Arlington 76 83%   
Sat, Jan 31 139 California Baptist 64 158 Texas Arlington 66 57%   
Sat, Jan 31 187 Tarleton St. 80 223 Utah Tech 75 68%   
Sat, Jan 31 252 Abilene Christian 75 282 Southern Utah 70 68%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.7 55.5 27.6 13.0 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 2.1 32.7 34.9 24.6 5.9 1.4 0.4 0.1
Texas Arlington 2.2 33.7 28.7 27.2 7.8 2.0 0.6 0.1
Tarleton St. 5.0 0.5 2.2 7.5 25.1 29.1 21.4 14.2
Utah Tech 4.2 2.3 6.5 16.0 37.4 21.5 12.1 4.2
Abilene Christian 5.5 0.3 1.3 4.5 16.2 24.5 28.0 25.2
Southern Utah 5.7 0.2 0.7 3.2 12.6 22.5 28.3 32.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 12 - 6 19 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 9.6 16.9 23.4 23.8 15.6 5.2
California Baptist 11 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 8.6 15.9 22.2 23.8 16.5 7.4 1.4
Texas Arlington 11 - 7 17 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.6 10.3 16.9 20.6 20.3 14.7 7.6 2.6 0.4
Tarleton St. 7 - 10 12 - 14 0.3 1.6 6.0 12.7 19.9 22.1 19.5 11.4 5.0 1.4 0.2
Utah Tech 8 - 10 12 - 17 1.0 5.2 12.4 19.3 22.3 18.7 12.3 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1
Abilene Christian 6 - 11 11 - 16 0.9 4.2 10.8 18.9 22.7 20.3 12.8 6.4 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 6 - 12 7 - 21 4.6 14.2 22.4 23.9 17.8 10.3 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 55.5% 37.9 14.9 2.6 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 32.7% 18.4 11.7 2.5 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 33.7% 20.6 10.6 2.4 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 2.3% 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 41.7% 41.7% 0.0% 14   0.8 11.0 20.6 8.5 0.8 0.0 58.4 0.0%
California Baptist 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 0.1 3.1 11.7 7.7 1.1 0.0 76.2 0.0%
Texas Arlington 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 7.0 8.6 2.7 0.1 80.3 0.0%
Tarleton St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.7 1.7 93.2 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.4 95.1 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 97.7 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 98.4
2nd Round 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 41.7% 0.0% 41.7% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 23.8% 0.0% 23.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 19.7% 0.0% 19.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 6.8% 0.7% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.9% 1.5% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.3% 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%