Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
84 Utah Valley 54.8%   13   6 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +6.8      +1.1 137 +5.7 36 71.0 142 +7.4 81 0.0 1
127 California Baptist 22.1%   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +2.3      +1.3 131 +0.9 138 65.1 294 +8.0 77 0.0 1
177 Texas Arlington 9.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      -3.0 247 +1.8 111 66.0 275 +2.6 134 0.0 1
199 Tarleton St. 6.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -2.6      -1.7 216 -0.9 197 71.2 139 +4.0 113 0.0 1
221 Abilene Christian 4.7%   4 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3.5      -4.0 277 +0.5 150 64.5 307 -0.2 173 0.0 1
262 Utah Tech 2.1%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -5.5      -3.8 269 -1.7 229 68.0 223 -6.9 268 0.0 1
318 Southern Utah 0.4%   1 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 14 -9.3      -5.2 308 -4.0 310 73.4 73 -12.3 328 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 162 Idaho St. 69 84 Utah Valley 73   
Thu, Dec 11 177 Texas Arlington 58 208 UT Rio Grande Valley 50   
Fri, Dec 12 127 California Baptist 88 240 Eastern Washington 83   
Sat, Dec 13 151 UC Santa Barbara 53 84 Utah Valley 68   
Sat, Dec 13 318 Southern Utah 69 47 Washington 105   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 127 California Baptist 79 203 Southern 71 78%   
Tue, Dec 16 221 Abilene Christian 57 3 Arizona 86 99%   
Tue, Dec 16 365 Mississippi Valley 64 199 Tarleton St. 81 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 93 Stanford 77 177 Texas Arlington 67 82%   
Wed, Dec 17 84 Utah Valley 80 214 Weber St. 67 88%   
Thu, Dec 18 270 Northern Arizona 76 318 Southern Utah 70 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.4 75.1 16.9 5.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 2.4 22.3 40.6 20.3 10.2 4.5 1.7 0.3
Texas Arlington 3.5 7.5 20.2 26.3 20.9 14.3 8.3 2.6
Tarleton St. 4.0 4.5 13.4 21.4 22.8 19.4 13.1 5.5
Abilene Christian 4.3 2.7 10.3 18.0 22.3 21.8 17.4 7.5
Utah Tech 5.1 1.0 4.6 10.6 16.2 23.1 28.0 16.4
Southern Utah 6.2 0.1 0.9 2.8 6.1 12.4 24.8 53.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.9 7.7 11.9 16.1 18.8 17.8 12.7 5.4
California Baptist 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 5.2 8.3 11.3 14.4 15.6 15.2 12.1 7.7 3.7 1.2 0.2
Texas Arlington 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.0 6.5 9.5 12.3 14.0 14.3 12.3 10.1 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Tarleton St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.1 6.9 9.7 12.3 14.1 13.4 12.4 9.6 6.8 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 5.7 8.9 11.5 13.8 14.1 13.3 10.7 7.8 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.6 6.9 10.7 13.5 15.2 14.2 11.8 9.3 6.2 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 4 - 14 2.7 8.3 13.7 16.6 16.8 14.8 10.6 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 75.1% 64.8 9.3 0.9 0.1
California Baptist 22.3% 14.6 6.8 0.8 0.1
Texas Arlington 7.5% 4.2 2.7 0.5 0.0
Tarleton St. 4.5% 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
Abilene Christian 2.7% 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
Utah Tech 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 54.8% 54.7% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 8.7 25.0 15.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 45.2 0.1%
California Baptist 22.1% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.3 8.9 4.9 1.1 0.1 77.9 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.2 2.0 0.6 90.6 0.0%
Tarleton St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.7 93.4 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.0 95.3 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 97.9 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 54.8% 0.1% 54.8% 10.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 22.1% 0.0% 22.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.4% 0.3% 9.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 6.6% 0.4% 6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.7% 0.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.1% 0.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.8 0.0
2nd Round 13.2% 0.1 86.8 13.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0