Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 #223
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #216
Pace 68.0 #208
Improvement +2.9 #62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #209 C+ D C D C+
Defense #245 C- C+ C- C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #169 1.25 #87 +1.9 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #218 0.75 #194 -0.9 #229
Three Pointers 43% #143 0.99 #218 +0.4 #161
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #136 +1.4 #135
Freethrows 0.24 #337 72% #195 0.17 #324
Second Chance 28.5% #244 0.90 #336 0.26 #309
Turnovers 16.0% #150
Total Offense -1.5 #209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.27 #315 -5.2 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #269 0.76 #178 +1.0 #118
Three Pointers 39% #240 0.94 #82 +2.5 #89
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #231 -1.7 #230
Freethrows 0.32 #236 73% #224 0.23 #248
Second Chance 32.0% #252 0.96 #70 0.31 #147
Turnovers 15.5% #233
Total Defense -2.2 #245

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #147 1.4% #298
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.1% #145 1.9% #218
Possession Length 17.5 #194 17.6 #222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #231 0.18 #203
Improvement +3.5 #26 -0.7 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 6.6% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 12.1% 20.0% 5.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 56.8% 26.5%
Conference Champion 2.3% 4.0% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 3.3% 17.1%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 1.5%
First Round4.2% 5.9% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 34 - 74 - 15
Quad 49 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 287 @South Dakota W 81 - 79 OT 52% +2  1 - 0 -2 -8 C F D- +6 A+ C+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 2 @Arizona L 67 - 93 1% -11  1 - 1 +1 +7 C+ B- C- -5 F A+ B
 Sun, Nov 9 80 @Arizona St. L 66 - 81 10% -11  1 - 2 -5 -5 D+ C- D- +0 B+ D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 327 Manhattan L 75 - 79 74% -3  1 - 3 -14 +1 F C B+ -16 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 75 2OT 96% +3  2 - 3 -18 -4 D- F B- -14 F A- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 99 @Hawaii L 62 - 68 13% -6  2 - 4 +2 -3 C+ F D+ +6 B F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 149 Portland St. L 63 - 68 45% -1  2 - 5 -7 -8 C+ F C +1 B+ C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 291 UC Riverside W 77 - 69 74% +4  3 - 5 -2 +8 B- C A- -9 D- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 50 @Santa Clara L 80 - 90 6% -12  3 - 6 +4 +6 A+ D F -2 C+ C B
 Sat, Dec 20 215 @Weber St. W 82 - 80 37% +1  4 - 6 +2 +12 A+ F B+ -10 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 53 @Creighton L 69 - 92 7% -11  4 - 7 -10 -1 B C+ F -8 F A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 282 Southern Utah W 80 - 66 73% +2  5 - 7 1 - 0 +4 +1 C+ D+ F+ +3 C+ B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 252 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 64 44% +14  6 - 7 2 - 0 +13 +11 A+ D- D- +2 D- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 139 @California Baptist L 72 - 84 22% -7  6 - 8 2 - 1 -8 +11 A F+ C -21 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 109 @Utah Valley L 76 - 92 16% -7  6 - 9 2 - 2 -9 +1 C C+ F -9 C D D+
 Thu, Jan 15 158 Texas Arlington L 52 - 56 47% -5  6 - 10 2 - 3 -7 -17 F C- A+ +10 A- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 187 Tarleton St. W 75 - 71 55% +6  7 - 10 3 - 3 -1 +0 B- D- D+ -1 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 139 @California Baptist L 64 - 73 22% -5  7 - 11 3 - 4 -5 +3 D- B+ A+ -9 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 282 Southern Utah W 102 - 91 73% +8  8 - 11 4 - 4 +1 +22 B+ A- A+ -21 F+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 29 252 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 187 @Tarleton St. L 75 - 80 34%
 Thu, Feb 5 158 Texas Arlington L 68 - 69 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 109 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 139 California Baptist L 69 - 71 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 158 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 72 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 187 @Tarleton St. L 75 - 80 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 252 Abilene Christian W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 282 @Southern Utah W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 109 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 34%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4 -1 C+ D C -2 C- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.8 6.9 2.2 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.5 5.9 15.5 12.2 3.1 0.2 37.4 4th
5th 0.2 4.8 10.3 5.5 0.6 0.0 21.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 6.0 3.0 0.3 12.1 6th
7th 0.9 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.2 7th
Total 1.0 5.2 12.4 19.3 22.3 18.7 12.3 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-5 92.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 51.5% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 10.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 34.3% 34.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
12-6 2.0% 17.7% 17.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.7
11-7 6.1% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 5.2
10-8 12.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 11.3
9-9 18.7% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.3 0.8 17.7
8-10 22.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 21.6
7-11 19.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 18.9
6-12 12.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.2
5-13 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.4 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%