Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 #158
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 #118
Pace 65.8 #267
Improvement +0.6 #154

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #274 D C+ F+ B B-
Defense #74 B C+ C+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #35 0.99 #346 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #207 0.74 #198 -0.7 #217
Three Pointers 36% #283 0.94 #276 -4.0 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #316 -4.7 #316
Freethrows 0.35 #58 73% #162 0.25 #71
Second Chance 35.9% #45 0.97 #277 0.35 #114
Turnovers 20.3% #353
Total Offense -3.5 #274

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #130 1.23 #271 -2.5 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #29 0.69 #68 -1.7 #311
Three Pointers 32% #359 0.80 #4 +8.1 #1
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #63 +3.9 #63
Freethrows 0.35 #319 71% #100 0.25 #303
Second Chance 27.8% #87 1.09 #255 0.30 #133
Turnovers 17.3% #119
Total Defense +3.7 #74

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #93 -1.5% #63
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.5% #333 -6.3% #69
Possession Length 19.5 #346 16.4 #43
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.25 #353
Improvement +0.2 #167 +0.4 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 20.6% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 96.2% 97.7% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 95.8% 82.0%
Conference Champion 33.7% 37.0% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 2.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round19.7% 20.6% 15.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 38 - 58 - 9
Quad 410 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 43 @New Mexico L 56 - 74 9% -12  0 - 1 -3 -9 F+ B- F +7 B- A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 177 Missouri St. W 67 - 49 67% +7  1 - 1 +14 -6 C D- F +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 270 @Evansville W 84 - 76 63% +3  2 - 1 +5 +15 A+ A+ F -10 C+ F D
 Fri, Nov 21 206 Campbell L 67 - 71 61% +4  2 - 2 -7 -12 F D+ D- +5 B- F A
 Sat, Nov 22 215 @Weber St. W 74 - 73 52% +0  3 - 2 +1 +4 C C D+ -3 C F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 29 107 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 61 47% -3  4 - 2 +6 +4 C+ C- F +3 B C B
 Tue, Dec 2 151 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 83 37% -10  4 - 3 -16 -12 F A D -4 D+ A C
 Thu, Dec 11 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 58 - 50 47% +0  5 - 3 +9 -0 D+ B- F +11 A A- C+
 Wed, Dec 17 84 @Stanford L 60 - 76 18% -12  5 - 4 -6 -5 C F D+ -2 C- C B
 Mon, Dec 22 332 @Oral Roberts W 69 - 57 77% +6  6 - 4 +4 -4 D+ B- F +9 A+ C+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 187 Tarleton St. L 63 - 69 69% -6  6 - 5 0 - 1 -11 -8 F D+ F -3 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 139 California Baptist W 63 - 51 57% +4  7 - 5 1 - 1 +10 -3 F B- C- +15 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 282 @Southern Utah W 86 - 77 66% +1  8 - 5 2 - 1 +5 +9 A- D F -4 D+ C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 252 Abilene Christian W 82 - 72 78% +6  9 - 5 3 - 1 +2 +12 C- A+ C+ -9 F+ D D+
 Thu, Jan 15 223 @Utah Tech W 56 - 52 53% +5  10 - 5 4 - 1 +3 -16 F F F +19 A+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 109 @Utah Valley L 74 - 86 26% -14  10 - 6 4 - 2 -5 +6 F+ A+ D -12 C+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 187 Tarleton St. W 71 - 64 69% +1  11 - 6 5 - 2 +2 -1 D- C- C +4 B- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 282 Southern Utah W 76 - 66 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 139 California Baptist W 66 - 64 58%
 Thu, Feb 5 223 @Utah Tech W 69 - 68 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 109 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 252 @Abilene Christian W 67 - 65 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 282 Southern Utah W 76 - 66 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 223 Utah Tech W 72 - 65 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 109 Utah Valley L 69 - 70 48%
 Thu, Feb 26 139 @California Baptist L 63 - 67 35%
 Thu, Mar 5 187 @Tarleton St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 252 @Abilene Christian W 67 - 65 59%
Totals 17 - 11 11 - 7 +0 -4 D C+ F+ +4 B C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.4 8.6 12.0 7.6 2.6 0.4 33.7 1st
2nd 0.3 4.2 11.1 10.3 2.7 0.1 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 6.3 11.4 7.1 1.5 0.0 27.2 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 3.5 1.1 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.6 10.3 16.9 20.6 20.3 14.7 7.6 2.6 0.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-3 100.0% 2.6    2.6
14-4 99.0% 7.6    6.6 0.9
13-5 81.4% 12.0    7.5 4.1 0.4
12-6 42.2% 8.6    3.1 4.4 1.1 0.0
11-7 11.7% 2.4    0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1
10-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.7% 33.7 20.6 10.6 2.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 41.5% 41.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 2.6% 39.5% 39.5% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-4 7.6% 33.6% 33.6% 13.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 5.1
13-5 14.7% 30.0% 30.0% 13.4 0.2 2.1 1.9 0.1 10.3
12-6 20.3% 22.9% 22.9% 13.7 0.1 1.6 2.5 0.5 15.7
11-7 20.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.7 17.1
10-8 16.9% 11.8% 11.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 14.9
9-9 10.3% 9.5% 9.5% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 9.3
8-10 4.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4
7-11 1.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 13.7 80.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.0 20.6 58.8 20.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%