Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +5.2 100
Results Rating +6.0 94
Consistency 0.17 295
Pace 70.7 115
Improvement -2.4 268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 111 B- B F+ C- A-
Defense B- 94 C+ C B+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% 1 B- 61% 99 +7.9 7
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 246 D+ 35% 266 -2.9 315
Three Pointers 36% 278 C+ 34% 149 -2.0 249
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 17 C+ +1.3 121
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 88
Second Chance B+ 36.2% 34 C+ 1.07 116 B 0.39 42
Opponents' Steals F 12.4% 357
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 238
Turnovers F+ 20.0% 344
Freethrows C 0.30 187 D 68% 323 C- 0.21 231
Total Offense C+ +2.4 111

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots A 65% 8 C+ 10.3% 147
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 47% 6 B+ 2.4% 20
Three Pointers B+ 92% 21 D+ 1.3% 301
Total A 70% 6 C- 5.9% 226


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 84 B- 54% 81 +0.7 208
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 186 C 38% 184 -0.2 176
Three Pointers 37% 278 C 34% 199 -1.7 113
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 229 C+ -1.4 119
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 140
Second Chance C 30.0% 172 C 1.02 155 C 0.31 167
Turnovers from Steals A 12.9% 10
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 206
Turnovers B+ 19.9% 27
Freethrows D 0.34 300 C+ 72% 151 D+ 0.25 291
Total Defense B- +2.9 94

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 286 B+ 15.7% 38
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 237 B- 6.8% 71
Three Pointers D 88% 305 B 1.5% 58
Total D+ 59% 264 A- 8.6% 19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 125 17.1 148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 105 0.17 161
Consistency 0.11 59 0.17 360
Improvement -0.3 201 -2.2 293

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 105 100 93
Results Rating Rank 103 85 84
Conference Record 14 - 4 14 - 4 14 - 4
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 13 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59% 100% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round59% 100% 0%
Second Round6% 10% 0%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 312 - 212 - 5
Quad 410 - 223 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 63 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 25% -12  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 C +2 C A F F -12 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 15 133 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 52% +4  87% 0 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +2 B+ B- D- C+ +1 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 110 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 67% +6  93% 1 - 2 B- +8 B+ +8 A A- B C -1 A D D
 Tue, Nov 25 215 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 79% +10  98% 2 - 2 A +20 D+ -3 C- A+ F A+ +22 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 207 Samford W 89 - 45 77% +23  89% 3 - 2 A+ +42 B +7 A B+ F A+ +33 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 48 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 19% -6  11% 3 - 3 C+ +3 C +0 B+ B- F B- +3 B+ D- B
 Sat, Dec 6 168 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 59% +10  90% 4 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +8 A+ C+ F B+ +6 A- F+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 265 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 90% -1  56% 5 - 3 C- -5 D- -8 C- C F B- +3 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 143 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 67% +12  95% 6 - 3 A- +16 D- -6 D C F A+ +23 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 210 Weber St. W 90 - 74 85% +9  97% 7 - 3 B +10 A+ +15 A+ A+ F D+ -4 B+ F D
 Mon, Dec 29 115 California Baptist W 73 - 66 69% +0  37% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B- +7 C +0 A F A- A- +7 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 229 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 72% +2  66% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +5 A- +10 B+ C+ C- D -5 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 249 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 76% -5  21% 9 - 4 2 - 1 F -19 D -5 C B+ F F -15 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 264 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 90% +10  98% 10 - 4 3 - 1 B +8 B- +5 B+ A- F B- +3 C+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 200 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 83% +7  77% 11 - 4 4 - 1 B +11 B- +4 C+ A D- B+ +5 B F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 170 Texas Arlington W 86 - 74 79% +14  99% 12 - 4 5 - 1 B +9 A +14 B A+ C+ D -6 B F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 264 @Southern Utah L 70 - 84 77% -4  15% 12 - 5 5 - 2 F+ -17 D- -8 F B- C- F+ -8 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 115 @California Baptist L 71 - 78 OT 46% -0  37% 12 - 6 5 - 3 C -1 D+ -4 D- C- D- B +4 D A- A
 Thu, Jan 29 229 @Tarleton St. W 83 - 55 72% +4  51% 13 - 6 6 - 3 A+ +27 B +7 B+ A+ F A+ +19 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 249 Abilene Christian W 68 - 55 89% +7  71% 14 - 6 7 - 3 C+ +5 D- -7 F+ A+ F A+ +12 D A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 170 Texas Arlington W 81 - 60 79% +9  80% 15 - 6 8 - 3 A- +18 A+ +24 A+ A+ C- C- -2 F A A
 Thu, Feb 12 200 @Utah Tech L 77 - 81 66% -10  0% 15 - 7 8 - 4 C- -3 C+ +3 A F F D -6 F+ F B-
 Thu, Feb 19 115 California Baptist W 65 - 46 69% +10  98% 16 - 7 9 - 4 A +19 D+ -3 C B- D- A+ +23 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 170 @Texas Arlington W 66 - 54 60% -0  40% 17 - 7 10 - 4 B+ +15 C -0 F A+ D+ A+ +15 B A+ A
 Thu, Feb 26 229 Tarleton St. W 79 - 72 87% +5  85% 18 - 7 11 - 4 C +0 C+ +3 C F+ A+ C- -3 D+ B- D-
 Sat, Feb 28 249 Abilene Christian W 74 - 67 89% +2  68% 19 - 7 12 - 4 C -1 C- -2 A F D C+ +0 B+ F A+
 Thu, Mar 5 264 @Southern Utah W 92 - 88 77% +11  98% 20 - 7 13 - 4 C +1 A +13 B B+ A- F -12 F F C
 Sat, Mar 7 200 @Utah Tech W 104 - 101 2OT 66% +4  73% 21 - 7 14 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +9 C+ A+ D+ D -5 B- F D
 Fri, Mar 13 170 Texas Arlington W 67 - 65 71% +5  90% 22 - 7 C +2 B- +4 B B- F C- -2 F A- D
 Sun, Mar 15 115 California Baptist W 72 - 70 58%
Totals 23 - 7 14 - 4 +5 C+ +2 F C+ A- B- +3 C+ D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ C+ C+ 50% 32% 36% A- B- B+ C+ B F+ C D C- B- B- C C C+ 42% 20% 37% C- C+ C C C B+ D C+ D+
1.12 61% 35% 34% +1 +2 1.08 36% 1.1 .39 20% .30 68% .21 1.05 54% 38% 34% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .31 20% .34 72% .22
Nov
8		 Boise St. C A B+ F C- 45% 22% 33% B+ C C+ A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F F A D- F 51% 14% 35% D F C- F F F+ F C F
1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32 1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41
Nov
15		 Fresno St. C+ C- D A- B 50% 14% 36% A- B+ D- A+ B- D- A+ F A+ C+ D F F F 45% 18% 36% D F A+ F B- A+ F A F
1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27 1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28
Nov
19		 UC Irvine B+ A- F C B+ 71% 10% 18% A+ A B B+ A- B A+ F C+ C B B- A+ A 34% 32% 34% B+ A B- F D D D- F F
1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19 1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 South Dakota St. D+ D+ F B D+ 48% 14% 38% B+ C- A+ B+ A+ F F A F+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 16% 50% C- A+ D- A+ B+ A+ F+ D F+
1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17 0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25
Nov
26		 Samford B B+ C- A B 64% 14% 21% A+ A B+ B- B+ F D B+ D+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20 0.61 22% 27% 25% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09
Dec
3		 San Diego St. C A F B+ B+ 31% 16% 53% B- B+ B C+ B- F C- D- D B- C- A- C- B 35% 35% 29% B+ B+ D- D+ D- B F D F
0.94 64% 0% 38% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 27% .29 67% .20 1.10 65% 29% 36% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 19% .49 79% .38
Dec
6		 Bowling Green B+ A+ A+ B A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ B+ F+ C+ F D- F+ D- B+ F B+ A+ A- 43% 19% 39% B- A- D+ F F+ B- D+ A C+
1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18 0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22
Dec
10		 Idaho St. D- A+ C F D+ 44% 16% 40% B- C- A+ F C F C B+ C+ B- A F F+ C 45% 10% 45% F+ C A+ A+ A+ B- C B- C+
1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27 1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22
Dec
13		 UC Santa Barbara D- F A+ C F+ 45% 11% 45% A- D A- F C F C A- C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 57% 22% 22% D- A+ C C+ C+ A+ C+ F C-
1.01 43% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.8 .30 22% .34 78% .27 0.78 35% 30% 20% -20 +1 0.65 31% 1.0 .31 28% .29 86% .25
Dec
17		 Weber St. A+ B A+ A+ A 47% 9% 45% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ F C B C+ D+ B- A+ C+ A 60% 16% 24% D- B+ F C- F D D A- C-
1.37 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 50% 1.4 .69 20% .32 76% .25 1.13 53% 13% 33% -7 +2 0.92 42% 1.0 .42 14% .37 67% .25
Dec
29		 California Baptist C A C+ D+ A 57% 19% 24% A- A F F F A- C F F A- F F B+ F 53% 23% 25% C- F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.04 68% 40% 31% +5 +2 1.15 9% 0.7 .06 11% .32 45% .14 0.94 67% 67% 30% +9 +1 1.23 28% 0.0 .00 33% .42 85% .36
Jan
1		 Tarleton St. A- B+ D- B B- 59% 7% 35% A+ B+ B D C+ C- A+ C+ A+ D A- F B+ B- 47% 22% 31% F+ C+ A- F D+ F F F F
1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46 1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42
Jan
3		 Abilene Christian D C D B C- 49% 7% 44% A- C B- A- B+ F F B- F F C- F F F 51% 29% 20% C- F C+ C+ C+ F A+ F B+
0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25 1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20
Jan
8		 Southern Utah B- A- F A+ B+ 52% 19% 30% B+ B+ A+ D+ A- F C+ F C- B- A+ A+ F C+ 40% 19% 42% C- C+ B F C- C F+ A+ C
1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17 0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19
Jan
10		 Utah Tech B- C- A+ F+ C- 54% 13% 33% B+ C+ C A+ A D- A+ A+ A+ B+ B+ C- C- B+ 49% 21% 30% C- B C- F F+ A+ F F F
1.20 59% 57% 28% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.5 .47 18% .43 89% .38 0.99 52% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 25% .35 90% .31
Jan
17		 Texas Arlington A B C+ C- B+ 44% 30% 26% C B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B D C+ A- A+ B 41% 22% 37% B- B F F F B- F D- F
1.24 64% 40% 31% +2 -1 1.04 45% 1.6 .73 16% .48 61% .29 1.07 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.83 42% 1.4 .58 22% .48 77% .37
Jan
21		 Southern Utah D- F+ F F F 48% 13% 39% A- F B+ C- B- C- A- F C+ F+ C A- F F 36% 23% 40% B- F F D F A F F F
0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20 1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30
Jan
24		 California Baptist D+ D+ A+ F F 58% 11% 30% A+ D- B- F C- D- A+ C A+ B C+ A- F D- 50% 22% 28% C D A C+ A- A F C F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +3 0.83 30% 0.7 .21 18% .52 72% .37 1.03 52% 30% 46% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 22% .53 71% .37
Jan
29		 Tarleton St. B C D+ A+ B+ 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ A A+ A+ F F A+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 37% 30% 33% B- A+ C C+ C+ A+ F A- F
1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29 0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38
Feb
5		 Abilene Christian D- C+ F F F 62% 11% 28% A F+ A A A+ F C- F F A+ A+ A+ F D- 34% 27% 39% B D C A+ A A+ B- A+ A+
0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23 0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas Arlington A+ F A+ A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% A- A+ A+ B+ A+ C- A A+ A+ C- C- F A+ F 55% 24% 21% C- F C- A+ A A F B+ F
1.38 47% 60% 52% +13 +1 1.29 42% 1.2 .50 17% .45 91% .41 1.02 56% 88% 14% +4 +1 1.12 36% 0.6 .23 25% .64 68% .43
Feb
12		 Utah Tech C+ A+ A+ D A 53% 12% 35% B+ A B+ F F F C+ F C- D C+ F F F+ 47% 20% 33% D+ F+ F F F B- D- A+ C-
1.14 77% 50% 29% +9 +2 1.24 38% 0.5 .19 22% .30 63% .19 1.20 58% 60% 41% +8 +1 1.20 37% 1.3 .47 18% .29 63% .18
Feb
19		 California Baptist D+ B- F D+ C 50% 23% 27% B- C A+ F B- D- D+ D D+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 17% 33% D+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A-
0.99 58% 27% 31% -4 +1 0.96 40% 0.7 .29 18% .30 69% .21 0.70 39% 25% 27% -15 +1 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 31% .20 78% .15
Feb
21		 Texas Arlington C F+ F F F 60% 18% 22% A+ F A+ F+ A+ D+ B+ F C- A+ B+ A- A- B 46% 22% 33% C+ B B A+ A+ A F A+ F
0.99 48% 25% 10% -16 +2 0.73 51% 0.9 .47 18% .40 59% .24 0.81 48% 30% 27% -10 0 0.83 31% 0.5 .14 26% .54 59% .32
Feb
26		 Tarleton St. C+ B- B- F D+ 56% 15% 29% A C D F F+ A+ A- F+ B- C- B+ A F C- 49% 25% 25% D D+ D A+ B- D- B+ A+ A
1.14 63% 43% 29% +1 +2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 13% .46 68% .31 1.04 48% 29% 50% -1 0 1.00 36% 0.7 .26 16% .27 63% .17
Feb
28		 Abilene Christian C- A D A+ A 50% 14% 36% B- A F+ F F D B F D C+ A+ B B- A 48% 14% 38% F B+ C F F A+ F F F
1.07 71% 33% 47% +13 +2 1.31 19% 0.8 .15 25% .48 60% .29 0.97 40% 33% 31% -11 +1 0.83 30% 1.4 .42 26% .57 83% .47
Mar
5		 Southern Utah A B+ B+ B- B 49% 21% 30% B- B B B B+ A- A+ C A+ F F D F F 51% 11% 38% F F A- F F C F A+ F
1.29 65% 45% 38% +7 +1 1.17 35% 1.1 .39 10% .48 71% .34 1.23 74% 40% 47% +16 +2 1.38 24% 1.7 .40 20% .47 59% .28
Mar
7		 Utah Tech B+ D- F A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% B- C+ C+ A+ A+ D+ A C+ A- D C+ F A B 43% 10% 47% F+ B- D- F F D F C- F
1.22 54% 25% 42% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.6 .55 16% .37 73% .27 1.19 58% 67% 29% -1 +2 1.03 33% 1.2 .38 14% .55 75% .41
Mar
13		 Texas Arlington B- D+ A+ C B 32% 22% 46% C+ B B- C+ B- F A+ F A C- F A- B F 58% 25% 18% C- F A B- A- D F A- F
1.07 54% 56% 32% +1 -1 1.02 31% 1.1 .34 21% .53 62% .32 1.04 65% 30% 29% +1 +1 1.05 27% 0.9 .24 18% .47 67% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 59.3% 59.3% 12.6 0.3 26.3 30.3 2.5 40.7
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 59.3% 59.3% 0.0% 12.6 40.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 59.3% 100.0% 12.6 0.5 44.3 51.0 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 40.7%