Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.1 #282
Expected Predictive Rating -7.8 #289
Pace 74.2 #52
Improvement +8.5 #2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #293 D+ C- D D- C+
Defense #256 D+ C D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #79 1.18 #150 +2.6 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.57 #355 -2.0 #278
Three Pointers 37% #257 0.94 #277 -3.4 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #257 -2.8 #257
Freethrows 0.24 #342 70% #269 0.16 #347
Second Chance 28.5% #242 1.03 #205 0.29 #239
Turnovers 18.9% #324
Total Offense -4.4 #293

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.11 #120 -1.5 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #126 0.80 #263 -1.0 #267
Three Pointers 35% #324 1.19 #356 -0.3 #188
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #270 -2.8 #271
Freethrows 0.26 #49 71% #131 0.18 #49
Second Chance 32.4% #264 1.01 #121 0.33 #199
Turnovers 13.4% #334
Total Defense -2.6 #256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #154 0.3% #187
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #282 5.2% #274
Possession Length 17.0 #140 16.3 #37
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #163 0.18 #227
Improvement +4.5 #10 +4.0 #15

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.8% 19.4% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.8% 30.0% 53.8%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 113 - 17
Quad 45 - 57 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 80 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 6% -11  0 - 1 -7 -8 F B- D- +2 D A A-
 Sat, Nov 8 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 42% -11  0 - 2 -28 -5 D+ D B -22 F C- C
 Sat, Nov 15 250 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 31% -3  0 - 3 -7 +6 B D- C+ -13 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 11 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0 - 4 -49 -19 F+ D- F -20 F F+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 138 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 15% -12  0 - 5 -20 -1 B+ F F -18 D+ F F
 Fri, Nov 28 208 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 25% -11  0 - 6 -7 -16 F C- F +8 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 330 Stetson W 70 - 68 63% -3  1 - 6 -8 -8 D D- F+ -1 D+ D B+
 Sat, Dec 6 194 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 23% -11  1 - 7 -10 -3 D A- F+ -7 F C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 47 @Washington L 69 - 105 3% -18  1 - 8 -22 +2 A- F C+ -22 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 313 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 46% -0  1 - 9 -14 -16 F+ F F +1 B D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 223 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 27% -2  1 - 10 0 - 1 -15 -9 D- D+ F -5 D+ C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 158 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 34% -1  1 - 11 0 - 2 -12 +3 B- C- D+ -15 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 109 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 10% -10  1 - 12 0 - 3 -10 +1 C C C -10 D- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 139 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 15% -6  1 - 13 0 - 4 +1 -6 F A+ F +7 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 15 187 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 42% +5  2 - 13 1 - 4 -4 +7 C+ B B- -11 F+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 17 252 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 54% +11  3 - 13 2 - 4 +14 -2 C- C D- +16 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 109 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 23% +4  4 - 13 3 - 4 +15 +12 A+ A- F +3 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 223 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 27% -8  4 - 14 3 - 5 -12 +14 B- B- B+ -26 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 158 @Texas Arlington L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 252 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 187 Tarleton St. L 78 - 80 42%
 Thu, Feb 12 139 California Baptist L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 158 @Texas Arlington L 66 - 76 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 187 @Tarleton St. L 75 - 83 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 252 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 223 Utah Tech L 75 - 76 49%
 Thu, Mar 5 109 Utah Valley L 73 - 81 23%
 Sat, Mar 7 139 California Baptist L 69 - 74 31%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 12 -7 -4 D+ C- D -3 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.4 3.4 5.8 2.7 0.2 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 7.2 10.1 3.8 0.3 0.0 22.5 5th
6th 1.6 9.5 12.9 4.0 0.2 28.3 6th
7th 4.6 12.6 11.9 3.4 0.2 32.7 7th
Total 4.6 14.2 22.4 23.9 17.8 10.3 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 22.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.4% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.4
9-9 4.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 4.7
8-10 10.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 10.1
7-11 17.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.6
6-12 23.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.8
5-13 22.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 22.4
4-14 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
3-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%