California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #139
Expected Predictive Rating +4.8 #94
Pace 63.5 #318
Improvement -0.9 #223

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #188 D+ C+ C C B-
Defense #109 B- B D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #14 1.02 #325 +1.6 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.73 #217 -1.2 #242
Three Pointers 35% #301 0.98 #233 -3.5 #305
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #275 -3.2 #274
Freethrows 0.30 #177 72% #198 0.22 #177
Second Chance 37.7% #20 0.94 #318 0.35 #105
Turnovers 16.9% #214
Total Offense -0.8 #188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.06 #65 +0.5 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #123 0.78 #219 -0.8 #240
Three Pointers 37% #293 0.98 #127 +2.9 #73
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #96 +2.5 #96
Freethrows 0.32 #243 74% #259 0.24 #264
Second Chance 25.9% #37 0.98 #86 0.25 #39
Turnovers 14.7% #288
Total Defense +2.1 #109

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #63 0.0% #164
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #311 -5.0% #84
Possession Length 18.5 #289 17.5 #214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #305 0.17 #182
Improvement -1.6 #265 +0.7 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 28.6% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.7% 98.9% 93.4%
Conference Champion 32.7% 48.8% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.8% 28.6% 20.3%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 416 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 307 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 88% +8  1 - 0 +1 +9 A- D A -9 D+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 119 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 33% +3  2 - 0 +14 +2 C C+ F +11 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 360 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 95% +6  3 - 0 -8 -3 F D- A -5 D A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 18 291 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 86% +15  4 - 0 +13 -4 F C D+ +14 A- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 285 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 86% +13  5 - 0 +3 +2 A D F +2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 212 San Diego W 76 - 61 66% +2  6 - 0 +12 +1 D A F+ +11 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 194 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 52% +2  7 - 0 +7 +5 B- F+ A +2 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 82 @Colorado L 70 - 78 20% +2  7 - 1 +2 +2 D- C- C -0 B C C
 Wed, Dec 3 14 BYU L 44 - 66 6% -18  7 - 2 -3 +1 D- C+ A+ -15 D+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 104 @Utah L 85 - 91 27% -4  7 - 3 +2 +12 D A+ D+ -10 B- D- D+
 Fri, Dec 12 242 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 61% +5  8 - 3 +4 +12 B A F+ -9 C- D- D
 Tue, Dec 16 254 Southern W 75 - 67 81% +4  9 - 3 -0 +1 D D B+ -1 B- C B
 Sat, Dec 20 293 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 86% +2  10 - 3 -4 -2 F A+ D- -2 B F C
 Mon, Dec 29 109 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 30% -0  10 - 4 0 - 1 -0 -3 A+ F F +3 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 158 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 43% -4  10 - 5 0 - 2 -9 -12 D+ D- F +2 A B- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 187 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 51% -1  10 - 6 0 - 3 -4 -1 C A+ F -3 D A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 223 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 78% +7  11 - 6 1 - 3 +5 +18 D A+ A -11 D A D+
 Sat, Jan 10 282 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 85% +6  12 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -10 F B+ A +4 A+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 252 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 63% +13  13 - 6 3 - 3 +14 +9 D+ C A- +6 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 223 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 78% +5  14 - 6 4 - 3 +2 +6 D- A+ A -3 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 109 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 52% +0  15 - 6 5 - 3 +8 +1 B- D+ D +7 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 158 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 66 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 187 Tarleton St. W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 252 Abilene Christian W 71 - 62 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 282 @Southern Utah W 74 - 69 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 223 @Utah Tech W 71 - 69 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 109 @Utah Valley L 67 - 73 31%
 Thu, Feb 26 158 Texas Arlington W 67 - 63 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 Tarleton St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Thu, Mar 5 252 Abilene Christian W 71 - 62 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 282 @Southern Utah W 74 - 69 69%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +1 -1 D+ C+ C +2 B- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 9.1 12.5 7.1 1.4 32.7 1st
2nd 0.4 4.4 12.7 13.1 4.0 0.2 34.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.0 10.4 7.0 1.6 0.0 24.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 8.6 15.9 22.2 23.8 16.5 7.4 1.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.4    1.4
14-4 96.8% 7.1    6.1 1.1
13-5 75.8% 12.5    7.4 4.8 0.4
12-6 38.2% 9.1    3.2 4.8 1.2 0.0
11-7 10.7% 2.4    0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1
10-8 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.7% 32.7 18.4 11.7 2.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.4% 46.9% 46.9% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.8
14-4 7.4% 37.4% 37.4% 12.7 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.6
13-5 16.5% 32.8% 32.8% 13.1 0.0 0.9 3.3 1.2 0.1 11.1
12-6 23.8% 28.2% 28.2% 13.3 0.5 3.7 2.3 0.2 17.1
11-7 22.2% 21.8% 21.8% 13.5 0.2 2.1 2.3 0.3 17.3
10-8 15.9% 14.9% 14.9% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 13.5
9-9 8.6% 9.5% 9.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.8
8-10 3.2% 6.9% 6.9% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 0.9% 6.3% 6.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 13.3 76.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.0 12.6 71.1 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%