Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #252
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 #212
Pace 66.4 #250
Improvement -0.2 #190

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #291 D+ C- D- C+ C-
Defense #194 D- C B+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #105 1.03 #314 -1.0 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.76 #171 +2.4 #64
Three Pointers 32% #342 1.00 #214 -5.0 #329
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #287 -3.5 #285
Freethrows 0.33 #97 72% #214 0.24 #118
Second Chance 33.6% #97 0.89 #338 0.30 #212
Turnovers 19.8% #345
Total Offense -4.4 #291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #17 1.23 #275 -6.1 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #291 0.74 #141 +1.6 #78
Three Pointers 37% #288 1.21 #360 -1.4 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #342 -5.9 #342
Freethrows 0.42 #364 74% #253 0.31 #364
Second Chance 28.4% #101 1.11 #280 0.32 #173
Turnovers 20.0% #27
Total Defense -0.7 #194

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #266 2.0% #344
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #278 9.4% #332
Possession Length 18.6 #302 16.9 #110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #190 0.23 #342
Improvement +0.9 #136 -1.1 #253

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.9% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 11.7% 17.0% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 14.2% 3.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 40.4% 29.6% 54.3%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round2.0% 2.6% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 64 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 250 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 61% +4  1 - 0 -6 -3 C C F -3 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 13% -1  1 - 1 -3 +1 D D C- -5 D- B D+
 Tue, Nov 18 275 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 44% -11  1 - 2 -17 -18 F B- F -1 F+ B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 343 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 74% +7  2 - 2 -1 -9 F B- F +9 B C- A
 Tue, Nov 25 132 William & Mary L 58 - 92 26% -12  2 - 3 -32 -17 D- F+ F -13 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 280 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 45% +8  3 - 3 +4 +8 C+ C A- -3 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 141 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 37% +5  4 - 3 +6 +10 A+ B- F -3 C- B A
 Tue, Dec 16 2 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  4 - 4 -7 -1 C C+ D- -4 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 14 @BYU L 67 - 85 2% -5  4 - 5 +4 +2 C- A- F +2 D- F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 308 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 52% -2  5 - 5 +1 -0 D D+ F +2 D- C+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 223 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 56% -14  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -9 C D- F -14 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 109 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 28% +5  6 - 6 1 - 1 +18 +14 A+ D+ A+ +4 D+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 187 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 28% +7  7 - 6 2 - 1 +5 +9 C A+ F+ -4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 158 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 22% -6  7 - 7 2 - 2 -7 +9 A- B- C- -16 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 139 California Baptist L 58 - 74 37% -13  7 - 8 2 - 3 -18 -9 D+ F B+ -11 D- B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 282 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 46% -11  7 - 9 2 - 4 -26 -23 F F F -3 F+ C- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 223 Utah Tech W 72 - 70 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 282 Southern Utah W 75 - 70 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 109 @Utah Valley L 66 - 78 13%
 Sat, Feb 7 139 @California Baptist L 62 - 71 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 158 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 187 Tarleton St. L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 282 Southern Utah W 75 - 70 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 223 @Utah Tech L 69 - 73 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 109 @Utah Valley L 66 - 78 13%
 Thu, Mar 5 139 @California Baptist L 62 - 71 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 158 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 41%
Totals 11 - 16 6 - 11 -5 -4 D+ C- D- -1 D- C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.2 0.1 4.5 3rd
4th 0.4 4.2 7.8 3.4 0.3 16.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 7.3 11.7 4.2 0.3 24.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 9.2 12.5 4.3 0.2 28.0 6th
7th 0.9 4.1 8.9 8.6 2.5 0.1 25.2 7th
Total 0.9 4.2 10.8 18.9 22.7 20.3 12.8 6.4 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 22.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.6% 18.1% 18.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.3% 9.9% 9.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
9-9 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 6.0
8-10 12.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.4 0.1 12.3
7-11 20.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.1 0.5 19.8
6-12 22.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 22.4
5-13 18.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.7
4-14 10.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-15 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.3 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%