Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
82 Utah Valley 55.0%   13   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +6.8      +1.9 121 +4.9 49 70.0 169 +7.5 81 0.0 1
126 California Baptist 22.0%   9 - 3 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +2.3      +1.2 134 +1.1 126 65.1 298 +8.1 75 0.0 1
180 Texas Arlington 8.8%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 -1.3      -3.2 254 +1.9 112 65.5 285 +2.2 131 0.0 1
191 Tarleton St. 7.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -2.1      -1.5 210 -0.6 189 72.3 104 +4.2 112 0.0 1
224 Abilene Christian 4.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -3.7      -4.2 282 +0.5 145 65.5 284 -0.4 173 0.0 1
263 Utah Tech 2.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -5.5      -3.8 265 -1.8 234 67.7 230 -6.8 271 0.0 1
317 Southern Utah 0.4%   1 - 9 0 - 0 5 - 23 4 - 14 -9.3      -6.0 332 -3.3 282 72.6 95 -12.9 335 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 16 126 California Baptist 75 204 Southern 67   
Tue, Dec 16 224 Abilene Christian 62 3 Arizona 96   
Tue, Dec 16 365 Mississippi Valley 64 191 Tarleton St. 88   
Wed, Dec 17 89 Stanford 76 180 Texas Arlington 60   
Wed, Dec 17 82 Utah Valley 90 212 Weber St. 74   
Thu, Dec 18 269 Northern Arizona 65 317 Southern Utah 57   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Dec 19 335 Florida A&M 69 191 Tarleton St. 81 86%   
Fri, Dec 19 224 Abilene Christian 57 9 BYU 84 98%   
Sat, Dec 20 263 Utah Tech 71 212 Weber St. 76 69%   
Sat, Dec 20 126 California Baptist 80 284 Sacramento St. 68 86%   
Mon, Dec 22 300 Oral Roberts 69 180 Texas Arlington 72 62%   
Mon, Dec 22 224 Abilene Christian 72 320 Texas Southern 69 61%   
Mon, Dec 22 39 Creighton 82 263 Utah Tech 61 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.4 75.2 17.4 5.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 2.4 22.2 40.5 20.7 10.2 4.4 1.7 0.4
Texas Arlington 3.6 6.8 19.0 25.8 21.5 15.3 8.7 2.9
Tarleton St. 3.9 5.4 15.0 22.3 22.8 18.2 12.0 4.3
Abilene Christian 4.4 2.5 9.4 17.2 22.6 22.8 17.6 7.9
Utah Tech 5.1 1.0 4.6 10.2 16.4 22.8 28.3 16.6
Southern Utah 6.2 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.1 12.4 24.6 53.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.6 8.0 12.1 16.4 18.8 18.3 12.5 4.9
California Baptist 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 5.1 8.0 11.5 14.9 15.6 15.5 12.0 7.7 3.6 1.1 0.1
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.0 10.1 12.7 14.1 13.7 12.5 9.5 6.5 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.8 8.7 12.1 13.8 13.6 12.4 10.5 7.6 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 5.8 9.0 12.1 14.0 14.5 13.3 10.5 7.2 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.5 7.1 10.8 13.4 15.3 14.3 12.0 8.7 6.0 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 4 - 14 2.7 8.2 13.9 16.7 16.9 14.6 10.7 7.5 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 75.2% 64.9 9.2 1.0 0.1
California Baptist 22.2% 14.5 6.7 0.9 0.1
Texas Arlington 6.8% 3.9 2.3 0.6 0.1
Tarleton St. 5.4% 3.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
Abilene Christian 2.5% 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
Utah Tech 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 55.0% 54.9% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 7.9 26.2 16.0 3.1 0.2 0.0 45.0 0.1%
California Baptist 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.9 9.8 4.8 0.9 0.1 78.0 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.1 2.1 0.6 91.2 0.0%
Tarleton St. 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.8 0.7 92.6 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.0 95.6 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 98.0 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 55.0% 0.1% 55.0% 10.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 22.0% 0.0% 22.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.8% 0.3% 8.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 7.4% 0.3% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.4% 0.6% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.0% 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0 0.0
2nd Round 12.8% 0.1 87.2 12.8
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0