Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
119 Utah Valley 35.9%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +2.5      0.0 161 +2.5 105 69.8 127 0.0 1 0.0 1
169 California Baptist 17.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 8 -1.0      -1.2 207 +0.2 156 65.1 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 Abilene Christian 17.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.2      -3.0 261 +1.8 118 72.0 69 0.0 1 0.0 1
202 Texas Arlington 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -0.5 178 -1.8 233 68.6 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 Southern Utah 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.8      -3.5 278 -2.3 250 71.5 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 Utah Tech 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.9      -2.9 256 -3.0 275 68.0 183 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Tarleton St. 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -6.1      -6.1 337 0.0 165 64.6 279 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 2.2 47.3 21.5 13.2 8.2 5.5 2.9 1.4
California Baptist 3.2 20.5 21.3 18.7 15.2 11.6 8.2 4.6
Abilene Christian 3.3 19.5 20.8 18.4 15.5 12.3 8.2 5.2
Texas Arlington 3.6 14.7 17.9 17.6 16.5 14.2 11.4 7.6
Southern Utah 4.8 4.9 8.7 11.8 14.6 18.1 20.5 21.3
Utah Tech 4.8 4.9 8.5 11.7 14.6 18.0 20.6 21.7
Tarleton St. 4.8 4.7 8.2 11.5 14.8 17.5 20.7 22.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.6 6.1 7.8 9.6 10.9 12.2 12.3 11.5 8.8 6.0 2.4
California Baptist 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.8 7.4 9.0 10.2 11.3 11.5 10.6 9.0 7.1 5.0 3.1 1.3 0.4
Abilene Christian 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 9.5 10.5 11.2 10.9 10.5 8.7 6.9 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.3
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.1 5.4 7.4 8.9 10.3 11.2 10.8 10.3 8.9 7.3 5.5 3.1 1.9 0.7 0.2
Southern Utah 7 - 11 0.8 2.3 4.6 6.8 9.1 10.8 11.5 11.5 10.4 8.8 7.3 5.9 4.3 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.7 2.6 4.7 7.1 9.3 11.0 11.1 11.1 10.5 9.0 7.7 5.8 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 7 - 11 0.9 2.7 4.7 7.4 9.5 10.8 11.3 11.0 10.4 8.9 7.4 5.5 4.0 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 47.3% 38.0 8.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 20.5% 14.6 4.8 0.9 0.1
Abilene Christian 19.5% 13.9 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 14.7% 9.8 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 4.9% 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 4.9% 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 4.7% 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.5 8.8 9.9 7.6 4.1 2.0 64.1 0.0%
California Baptist 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.2 4.8 3.4 2.2 82.6 0.0%
Abilene Christian 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.3 4.5 3.6 2.0 82.7 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.9% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 3.7 3.3 2.5 86.1 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.9 94.6 0.0%
Utah Tech 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 94.9 0.0%
Tarleton St. 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 94.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 35.9% 1.0% 36.1% 4.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 17.4% 1.1% 17.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 17.3% 1.2% 17.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.9% 1.5% 13.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.4% 1.3% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 5.1% 1.2% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 5.1% 1.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 94.8 2.3
2nd Round 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0