Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
102 Utah Valley 49.2%   13   15 - 7 8 - 4 +5.0      +1.9 115 +3.1 88 71.4 104 +3.7 104 +1.3 3
138 California Baptist 25.9%   19 - 7 9 - 4 +1.5      -1.5 210 +3.0 91 65.1 273 +5.2 96 +3.0 2
183 Texas Arlington 7.6%   12 - 11 6 - 7 -1.5      -3.4 258 +1.9 121 65.3 269 -0.5 170 -3.5 5
188 Utah Tech 11.6%   13 - 11 9 - 4 -1.8      -0.2 169 -1.5 221 67.3 221 +0.9 145 +3.5 1
224 Tarleton St. 2.8%   9 - 13 4 - 9 -3.5      -5.4 311 +1.9 122 73.4 59 -3.1 217 -6.0 6
242 Abilene Christian 2.0%   9 - 14 4 - 9 -4.5      -5.9 319 +1.4 132 66.9 232 -3.9 228 -6.5 7
275 Southern Utah 1.0%   6 - 17 5 - 8 -6.6      -4.1 278 -2.6 256 74.2 45 -6.1 266 -3.4 4


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 16 242 Abilene Christian 62 224 Tarleton St. 65   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 19 138 California Baptist 68 102 Utah Valley 74 73%   
Thu, Feb 19 183 Texas Arlington 71 188 Utah Tech 68 62%   
Thu, Feb 19 275 Southern Utah 72 224 Tarleton St. 78 72%   
Sat, Feb 21 224 Tarleton St. 74 188 Utah Tech 72 55%   
Sat, Feb 21 183 Texas Arlington 69 102 Utah Valley 72 63%   
Sat, Feb 21 242 Abilene Christian 74 275 Southern Utah 69 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.5 63.4 23.0 13.3 0.3 0.0
California Baptist 1.7 46.5 39.6 13.7 0.3
Texas Arlington 4.1 0.1 1.5 6.8 77.4 10.9 2.9 0.4
Utah Tech 2.2 23.5 31.9 43.4 1.2 0.0
Tarleton St. 5.5 0.1 15.6 34.1 31.6 18.6
Abilene Christian 5.9 0.0 0.1 9.4 25.5 33.9 31.1
Southern Utah 5.3 0.0 0.5 18.6 43.5 23.1 14.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 20 - 8 0.0 0.7 3.5 13.2 28.6 34.9 19.2
California Baptist 12 - 6 22 - 9 0.5 4.5 17.7 35.2 32.8 9.3
Texas Arlington 8 - 10 14 - 14 5.6 20.9 32.7 26.9 11.5 2.4
Utah Tech 11 - 7 15 - 14 3.7 16.8 30.9 30.0 15.4 3.4
Tarleton St. 6 - 12 11 - 16 5.1 21.3 35.7 27.9 9.0 1.0
Abilene Christian 6 - 12 11 - 17 8.8 30.6 37.0 18.9 4.4 0.4
Southern Utah 7 - 11 8 - 20 16.9 34.1 30.0 14.8 3.8 0.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 63.4% 40.1 18.5 4.8 0.0
California Baptist 46.5% 22.9 18.7 4.8 0.0
Texas Arlington 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 23.5% 8.4 10.3 4.8 0.0
Tarleton St.
Abilene Christian
Southern Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 49.2% 49.2% 0.0% 13   1.0 19.1 24.5 4.5 0.1 0.0 50.8 0.0%
California Baptist 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0 4.3 15.2 6.0 0.3 74.1 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.5 3.2 0.9 92.4 0.0%
Utah Tech 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.1 0.4 88.4 0.0%
Tarleton St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 97.2 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 98.0 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.1 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 98.4
2nd Round 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 49.2% 0.0% 49.2% 4.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 25.9% 0.0% 25.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.6% 0.2% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 11.6% 0.1% 11.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 2.8% 1.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%