Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 98.0%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 15 - 3 +22.3      +12.4 5 +9.9 3 64.8 275 0.0 1 0.0 1
10 Louisville 88.9%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +18.1      +10.8 10 +7.3 20 71.3 91 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 North Carolina 72.9%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15.2      +9.0 20 +6.2 33 75.3 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
31 North Carolina St. 65.8%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +14.1      +7.7 30 +6.3 32 63.9 292 0.0 1 0.0 1
42 Clemson 51.4%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +12.3      +5.6 50 +6.7 25 62.2 331 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 Virginia 49.6%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +12.1      +6.2 46 +5.9 40 56.4 362 0.0 1 0.0 1
46 SMU 47.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +11.9      +6.9 40 +5.0 52 71.5 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 Miami (FL) 27.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +9.9      +7.1 39 +2.9 96 68.5 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 Notre Dame 28.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +9.2      +4.7 60 +4.6 61 63.0 315 0.0 1 0.0 1
64 Syracuse 23.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +9.2      +6.5 45 +2.6 102 69.7 129 0.0 1 0.0 1
67 Wake Forest 23.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +8.7      +4.0 74 +4.7 56 67.5 196 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Florida St. 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +7.3      +3.5 81 +3.8 75 73.0 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
76 Virginia Tech 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 11 +7.3      +4.2 69 +3.1 92 63.9 293 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 Georgia Tech 11.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +6.8      +2.9 99 +4.0 72 71.5 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
80 Pittsburgh 16.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 11 +6.8      +4.1 71 +2.7 97 66.2 226 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 California 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +5.7      +3.7 78 +2.0 115 68.5 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
96 Boston College 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 6 - 12 +5.4      +3.3 88 +2.1 112 66.9 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
99 Stanford 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +5.2      +2.2 107 +3.0 95 65.7 245 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 2.2 54.6 18.2 9.6 6.1 3.9 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Louisville 4.0 22.7 19.0 14.3 11.4 7.8 6.4 5.0 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
North Carolina 5.8 10.9 13.0 11.9 10.7 9.4 8.3 6.7 6.1 5.0 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3
North Carolina St. 6.2 9.8 11.7 11.3 9.6 8.9 8.4 7.1 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.5 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6
Clemson 6.8 6.4 9.9 10.4 10.1 9.0 8.8 7.8 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.4 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.8
Virginia 7.3 4.8 8.5 9.3 9.4 8.6 8.3 7.9 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.2 4.2 4.3 3.4 2.9 2.0 1.4 0.9
SMU 7.8 4.0 7.6 7.7 8.3 7.8 8.4 7.6 7.2 6.3 6.7 5.6 5.5 4.4 3.9 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.3
Miami (FL) 8.4 3.3 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.0 6.9 6.5 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.8 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.1
Notre Dame 9.3 2.2 4.1 5.5 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 5.2 5.0 4.1 3.8 3.2
Syracuse 9.9 1.4 3.4 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.2 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.1 5.0 4.6 3.2
Wake Forest 10.2 1.5 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.4 5.7 6.5 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.3 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.1 4.1
Florida St. 11.1 0.9 2.2 2.8 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.1 6.0
Virginia Tech 11.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.2 4.4 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.8 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.2 8.3 7.8 7.1 5.6
Georgia Tech 11.3 0.6 1.7 2.6 3.0 4.2 4.6 5.1 6.0 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.0 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.3 6.4
Pittsburgh 11.9 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.8 7.8 7.8 8.4 8.9 8.8 8.5
California 12.1 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.3 8.3 8.5 9.1 9.3 9.9
Boston College 12.3 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.1 4.7 4.9 5.7 7.0 6.8 8.0 8.4 8.5 9.9 10.0 9.4
Stanford 12.8 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.3 6.2 7.0 7.6 8.4 8.6 10.5 11.7 12.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.4 6.4 10.0 13.6 16.6 18.3 16.1 9.3
Louisville 13 - 5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 7.7 10.0 12.7 14.4 13.9 12.6 9.3 5.3 1.7
North Carolina 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 4.7 6.6 9.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 11.5 10.5 7.6 4.4 2.0 0.5
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.8 6.0 7.2 9.7 11.3 12.1 11.3 11.5 9.1 6.5 4.0 2.0 0.6
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.8 3.0 4.9 6.2 8.5 10.6 11.8 12.3 12.1 10.3 7.8 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.2
Virginia 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.7 7.5 9.8 11.0 12.0 12.2 10.9 9.4 7.0 4.3 1.8 0.7 0.2
SMU 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.1 6.7 8.9 10.3 11.6 12.0 11.4 10.1 8.2 5.6 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1
Miami (FL) 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.8 5.2 7.8 9.2 10.5 11.6 12.0 10.4 8.9 6.9 5.1 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1
Notre Dame 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.8 6.7 9.0 11.0 11.6 12.1 10.7 9.3 7.6 5.5 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1
Syracuse 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.8 5.7 8.0 10.3 11.4 11.8 11.2 10.6 8.8 6.7 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.2 6.6 8.8 10.2 11.3 11.8 11.6 10.3 8.0 5.7 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.4 5.9 8.0 10.5 11.7 11.4 11.0 10.5 8.6 6.1 4.7 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 7 - 11 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.1 8.5 11.0 12.5 12.6 11.4 10.5 8.1 5.9 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 3.4 6.0 8.8 10.6 12.3 11.9 11.6 10.8 7.9 6.0 4.3 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 7 - 11 0.8 2.5 5.0 6.9 9.8 11.5 12.2 11.5 10.6 9.0 7.2 5.3 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
California 7 - 11 0.9 2.7 5.3 7.9 10.4 11.9 12.0 11.7 10.1 8.8 6.6 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Boston College 6 - 12 0.8 2.5 5.2 8.4 11.4 12.0 12.4 11.8 10.4 8.0 6.5 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 6 - 12 1.1 3.6 6.8 9.6 11.1 12.6 12.9 11.1 9.3 7.4 5.7 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 54.6% 40.8 10.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisville 22.7% 14.0 6.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 10.9% 6.1 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 9.8% 5.3 3.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Clemson 6.4% 3.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Virginia 4.8% 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
SMU 4.0% 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 3.3% 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 2.2% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 1.4% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 1.5% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.8% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 98.0% 40.8% 57.2% 1   33.6 22.4 13.8 9.2 6.2 4.6 2.9 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 96.6%
Louisville 88.9% 18.7% 70.2% 4   10.5 12.4 12.3 10.7 10.1 8.9 7.2 6.6 4.8 3.6 1.8 0.1 11.1 86.4%
North Carolina 72.9% 9.7% 63.2% 8   3.5 5.2 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.0 8.0 7.4 7.0 3.0 0.1 27.1 70.0%
North Carolina St. 65.8% 7.0% 58.8% 9   2.4 3.6 5.3 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.6 8.0 7.7 7.5 3.7 0.1 34.2 63.2%
Clemson 51.4% 4.6% 46.8% 10   0.8 1.4 2.3 3.6 4.2 5.1 6.3 7.0 7.6 9.1 3.8 0.1 0.0 48.6 49.0%
Virginia 49.6% 4.0% 45.6% 10   0.7 1.3 2.5 3.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 6.8 7.6 8.4 3.9 0.1 0.0 50.4 47.5%
SMU 47.2% 4.1% 43.1% 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.7 6.8 7.4 8.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 52.8 44.9%
Miami (FL) 27.5% 2.4% 25.1% 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.3 2.8 4.0 4.7 6.1 3.2 0.1 72.5 25.7%
Notre Dame 28.0% 1.7% 26.3% 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 6.7 3.5 0.1 72.0 26.7%
Syracuse 23.5% 1.4% 22.2% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.4 4.1 5.5 3.6 0.1 76.5 22.5%
Wake Forest 23.6% 1.4% 22.2% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.4 4.0 5.8 3.3 0.1 76.4 22.5%
Florida St. 15.5% 0.8% 14.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.9 4.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 84.5 14.8%
Virginia Tech 14.8% 0.9% 13.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.9 2.4 0.1 85.2 14.0%
Georgia Tech 11.3% 0.7% 10.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.4 2.0 0.0 88.7 10.6%
Pittsburgh 16.4% 0.5% 15.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.1 2.6 0.1 83.6 16.0%
California 8.7% 0.5% 8.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.7 1.7 0.1 91.3 8.2%
Boston College 7.0% 0.4% 6.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 2.3 1.6 0.0 93.0 6.6%
Stanford 8.8% 0.4% 8.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.7 1.7 0.1 91.2 8.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 98.0% 0.8% 97.6% 90.7% 67.0% 44.0% 26.5% 14.9% 8.4%
Louisville 88.9% 2.8% 87.6% 71.6% 41.9% 22.0% 11.0% 5.1% 2.3%
North Carolina 72.9% 5.1% 70.4% 50.5% 24.2% 10.6% 4.9% 2.2% 0.9%
North Carolina St. 65.8% 6.0% 63.0% 42.7% 18.8% 7.9% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5%
Clemson 51.4% 6.7% 48.0% 29.9% 11.2% 4.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Virginia 49.6% 6.7% 46.2% 28.2% 10.5% 4.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2%
SMU 47.2% 6.2% 44.0% 27.3% 9.9% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Miami (FL) 27.5% 5.4% 24.6% 13.8% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Notre Dame 28.0% 6.1% 24.7% 13.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 23.5% 5.6% 20.5% 11.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 23.6% 5.4% 20.7% 10.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Florida St. 15.5% 4.1% 13.4% 6.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 14.8% 3.8% 12.8% 6.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 11.3% 3.3% 9.4% 4.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 16.4% 4.1% 14.2% 6.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 8.7% 2.6% 7.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 7.0% 2.4% 5.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 8.8% 2.8% 7.2% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.6 0.0 0.7 4.3 14.9 27.5 28.5 17.3 5.5 1.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 6.2 0.1 1.4 7.9 20.2 30.9 24.6 11.4 3.0 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.2 0.0 0.8 6.4 20.8 31.7 25.4 11.4 3.0 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 95.5% 2.1 4.5 25.2 38.5 24.1 6.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 73.9% 1.0 26.1 47.2 22.7 3.7 0.3
Final Four 46.1% 0.5 53.9 39.9 6.0 0.2
Final Game 24.9% 0.3 75.1 24.0 1.0
Champion 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.9