Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+22.3#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#275
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+12.4#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.5% 10.9% 3.8%
#1 Seed 33.6% 37.6% 17.6%
Top 2 Seed 56.0% 61.0% 35.9%
Top 4 Seed 79.0% 83.2% 62.0%
Top 6 Seed 89.8% 92.5% 78.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.0% 98.9% 94.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.6% 98.0% 91.9%
Average Seed 2.9 2.7 3.9
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.1% 97.4%
Conference Champion 54.6% 57.7% 42.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 1.5%
First Round97.6% 98.6% 93.5%
Second Round90.7% 93.0% 81.3%
Sweet Sixteen67.0% 70.3% 54.0%
Elite Eight44.0% 46.9% 32.5%
Final Four26.5% 28.8% 17.1%
Championship Game14.9% 16.6% 8.1%
National Champion8.4% 9.4% 4.4%

Next Game: Texas (Neutral) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 27 - 118 - 6
Quad 34 - 022 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 38   Texas W 75-66 80%    
  Nov 08, 2025 262   Western Carolina W 88-57 99.8%   
  Nov 11, 2025 353   @ Army W 86-54 99.8%   
  Nov 14, 2025 173   Indiana St. W 90-64 99%    
  Nov 18, 2025 14   Kansas W 73-68 67%    
  Nov 21, 2025 333   Niagara W 85-49 99.9%   
  Nov 23, 2025 328   Howard W 91-56 99.9%   
  Nov 27, 2025 17   Arkansas W 75-70 68%    
  Dec 02, 2025 5   Florida W 76-72 63%    
  Dec 06, 2025 21   @ Michigan St. W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 16, 2025 188   Lipscomb W 82-55 99%    
  Dec 20, 2025 12   Texas Tech W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 31, 2025 79   Georgia Tech W 80-62 94%    
  Jan 03, 2026 75   @ Florida St. W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 06, 2026 10   @ Louisville W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 10, 2026 46   SMU W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 14, 2026 91   @ California W 78-64 87%    
  Jan 17, 2026 99   @ Stanford W 76-62 88%    
  Jan 24, 2026 67   Wake Forest W 78-61 92%    
  Jan 26, 2026 10   Louisville W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 31, 2026 76   @ Virginia Tech W 75-63 84%    
  Feb 03, 2026 96   Boston College W 80-60 95%    
  Feb 07, 2026 23   @ North Carolina W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 10, 2026 80   @ Pittsburgh W 76-63 85%    
  Feb 14, 2026 42   Clemson W 73-60 86%    
  Feb 16, 2026 64   Syracuse W 81-65 91%    
  Feb 21, 2026 6   Michigan W 75-72 58%    
  Feb 24, 2026 63   @ Notre Dame W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 28, 2026 44   Virginia W 70-57 86%    
  Mar 02, 2026 31   @ North Carolina St. W 71-66 67%    
  Mar 07, 2026 23   North Carolina W 80-70 79%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.3 9.4 16.1 16.0 9.3 54.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.6 6.4 2.2 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.4 6.4 10.0 13.6 16.6 18.3 16.1 9.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.3    9.3 0.0
17-1 99.3% 16.0    14.7 1.3 0.0
16-2 87.7% 16.1    11.7 4.2 0.2
15-3 57.0% 9.4    4.4 3.7 1.2 0.1
14-4 24.1% 3.3    0.7 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.6% 54.6 40.8 10.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.3% 100.0% 70.0% 30.0% 1.2 7.6 1.6 0.1 100.0%
17-1 16.1% 100.0% 60.2% 39.8% 1.4 11.2 4.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 18.3% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.7 8.9 6.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 16.6% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 2.4 4.3 5.8 4.0 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.6% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 3.2 1.3 3.0 4.1 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.0% 99.7% 23.6% 76.1% 4.3 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 6.4% 98.5% 16.0% 82.4% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.2%
11-7 4.4% 95.9% 8.7% 87.2% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 95.6%
10-8 2.6% 85.1% 8.2% 77.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 83.8%
9-9 1.4% 71.4% 3.0% 68.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 70.5%
8-10 0.7% 40.7% 3.0% 37.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 38.9%
7-11 0.3% 12.7% 12.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.7%
6-12 0.1% 4.9% 4.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 4.9%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.0% 40.8% 57.2% 2.9 33.6 22.4 13.8 9.2 6.2 4.6 2.9 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 96.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.7 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.8 14.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7