Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
108 Akron 26.7%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 13 - 5 +4.2      +3.8 77 +0.4 147 76.4 18 0.0 1 0.0 1
125 Miami (OH) 17.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 11 - 6 +2.2      +1.9 114 +0.2 155 71.1 95 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Kent St. 17.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 6 +2.1      +0.5 149 +1.6 121 65.7 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
152 Ohio 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 +0.4      +1.2 129 -0.9 194 74.5 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 Massachusetts 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 -0.9      -0.8 194 0.0 167 74.5 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
196 Toledo 6.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 9 - 8 -2.2      +2.6 102 -4.8 320 70.0 122 0.0 1 0.0 1
212 Bowling Green 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -3.0      -1.9 228 -1.0 200 71.0 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
247 Ball St. 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -4.6      -1.0 205 -3.5 290 66.3 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 Western Michigan 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6.9      -3.0 256 -3.9 300 69.0 150 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 Eastern Michigan 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -7.3      -2.6 245 -4.7 318 69.0 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 Central Michigan 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -7.7      -4.4 297 -3.3 284 67.4 204 0.0 1 0.0 1
314 Northern Illinois 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.8      -4.3 294 -4.5 311 71.3 90 0.0 1 0.0 1
337 Buffalo 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -10.8      -5.4 320 -5.4 332 74.7 37 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 2.7 40.7 20.2 13.2 8.9 6.4 3.9 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 4.2 15.3 17.2 15.5 13.4 11.2 8.3 6.5 5.1 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2
Kent St. 3.6 25.2 18.6 15.0 11.3 8.9 6.2 5.0 3.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2
Ohio 4.5 15.7 15.2 13.8 12.2 11.1 8.9 7.2 5.3 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.5
Massachusetts 5.1 11.1 12.7 13.0 12.0 10.9 9.4 8.4 7.0 5.8 4.0 3.1 1.6 1.0
Toledo 6.3 4.5 7.1 8.9 10.2 11.6 11.8 10.7 10.0 8.5 6.7 5.1 3.2 1.5
Bowling Green 6.5 5.3 7.0 8.4 9.5 9.8 10.3 10.7 9.8 8.8 7.6 6.0 4.4 2.4
Ball St. 7.1 3.7 5.1 6.6 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 10.7 9.7 9.0 7.7 5.9 4.0
Western Michigan 8.6 1.1 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.1 7.3 9.2 10.2 11.8 11.6 12.3 11.6 8.3
Eastern Michigan 8.9 1.0 1.9 2.9 3.8 5.4 6.9 8.5 9.8 11.4 12.6 12.6 12.6 10.5
Central Michigan 8.8 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.4 5.7 7.1 8.7 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.7 12.0 10.0
Northern Illinois 9.3 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.6 6.4 7.5 9.2 11.2 12.5 13.9 13.9 13.4
Buffalo 10.6 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.2 2.9 4.5 6.0 8.5 11.8 14.6 20.2 26.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.8 8.4 10.8 13.0 15.1 14.3 12.4 8.5 3.5
Miami (OH) 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.0 6.1 9.0 10.6 13.4 12.9 13.9 11.3 8.0 4.6 1.4
Kent St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.3 8.9 10.6 12.7 13.3 12.9 10.0 7.7 4.5 1.5
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.3 6.9 8.7 10.8 12.6 12.4 11.0 10.2 7.2 4.8 2.3 0.6
Massachusetts 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.0 5.0 6.7 8.5 10.2 11.1 12.1 11.3 10.8 7.7 5.5 3.0 1.4 0.3
Toledo 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.3 7.8 10.2 11.2 12.8 12.5 11.1 9.1 6.4 4.4 2.1 1.0 0.1
Bowling Green 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.7 10.0 11.2 11.7 10.7 10.0 8.0 6.4 4.3 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.4 5.8 8.3 10.0 10.9 11.8 11.4 10.0 8.5 6.8 4.8 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.4 1.9 4.4 7.6 9.6 11.8 12.7 12.0 10.9 8.8 7.3 5.4 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 1.0 2.6 5.5 8.5 10.7 12.0 12.4 12.1 9.9 8.4 6.5 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1
Central Michigan 7 - 11 0.8 2.6 4.8 7.8 10.2 12.2 12.1 11.9 10.6 8.7 6.7 5.0 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1
Northern Illinois 6 - 12 1.1 3.5 6.4 9.2 11.7 13.3 12.7 11.6 9.6 7.5 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 5 - 13 3.4 8.0 12.2 14.9 14.1 13.2 11.4 8.2 5.7 3.7 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 40.7% 28.9 9.5 2.1 0.3 0.0
Miami (OH) 15.3% 8.7 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
Kent St. 25.2% 16.6 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
Ohio 15.7% 9.5 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Massachusetts 11.1% 6.1 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Toledo 4.5% 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 5.3% 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 3.7% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
Central Michigan 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 26.7% 26.6% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 4.9 9.2 6.5 3.5 1.3 0.3 73.3 0.2%
Miami (OH) 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1 4.7 4.6 3.4 1.4 0.4 83.0 0.1%
Kent St. 17.3% 17.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.3 82.7 0.1%
Ohio 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.4 88.3 0.0%
Massachusetts 8.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.3 0.4 91.4 0.0%
Toledo 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.1 0.4 93.9 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.4 95.2 0.0%
Ball St. 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 96.7 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.7 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.8 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 98.8 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Buffalo 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 26.7% 0.2% 26.8% 4.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 17.0% 0.2% 17.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 17.3% 0.2% 17.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 11.7% 0.2% 11.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 8.6% 0.2% 8.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 6.1% 0.2% 6.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.8% 0.1% 4.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 3.3% 0.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 98.0 1.2
2nd Round 11.7% 0.1 88.3 11.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0