Preseason Rankings
Ball St.
Mid-American
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#247
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#225
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#290
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 36.3% 47.1% 21.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 54.7% 37.1%
Conference Champion 3.7% 5.0% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 4.8% 10.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.3% 4.3% 1.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 410 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 233   Louisiana W 71-69 58%    
  Nov 11, 2025 26   @ Wisconsin L 61-84 2%    
  Nov 15, 2025 162   Arkansas Little Rock L 69-70 46%    
  Nov 22, 2025 173   @ Indiana St. L 75-81 28%    
  Nov 28, 2025 210   Monmouth L 70-72 44%    
  Nov 29, 2025 308   @ Lafayette W 69-68 53%    
  Nov 30, 2025 344   Le Moyne W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 03, 2025 231   @ Evansville L 66-70 37%    
  Dec 09, 2025 155   South Dakota St. L 73-75 45%    
  Dec 14, 2025 200   @ Campbell L 66-71 33%    
  Dec 20, 2025 125   Miami (OH) L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 03, 2026 337   @ Buffalo W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 06, 2026 292   Eastern Michigan W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 10, 2026 170   @ Massachusetts L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 13, 2026 108   @ Akron L 71-83 16%    
  Jan 17, 2026 152   Ohio L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 20, 2026 299   @ Central Michigan W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 24, 2026 314   Northern Illinois W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 31, 2026 196   @ Toledo L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 03, 2026 212   @ Bowling Green L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 11, 2026 337   Buffalo W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 14, 2026 127   Kent St. L 67-71 39%    
  Feb 17, 2026 152   @ Ohio L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 21, 2026 108   Akron L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 24, 2026 170   Massachusetts L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 28, 2026 314   @ Northern Illinois W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 03, 2026 282   @ Western Michigan L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 06, 2026 299   Central Michigan W 73-67 69%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.4 0.7 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.8 1.0 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.7 1.2 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.7 3.5 4.0 1.3 0.1 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.9 1.5 0.1 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.3 1.4 0.2 7.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.4 1.2 0.1 5.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 4.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.4 5.8 8.3 10.0 10.9 11.8 11.4 10.0 8.5 6.8 4.8 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 92.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 65.6% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 39.3% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 49.6% 49.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 39.3% 39.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.7% 32.8% 32.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.6% 22.6% 22.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-4 3.0% 16.5% 16.5% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
13-5 4.8% 12.1% 12.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.2
12-6 6.8% 6.2% 6.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.4
11-7 8.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.1
10-8 10.0% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.7
9-9 11.4% 1.7% 1.7% 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.2
8-10 11.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.5 0.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 10.0% 10.0
5-13 8.3% 8.3
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 96.7 0.0%