IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.2	#196
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.0	#122
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.6	#102

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.8	#320

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.1%	7.8%	4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.8	13.4	13.9

.500 or above	55.3%	67.3%	40.0%
.500 or above in Conference	59.5%	66.6%	50.4%
Conference Champion	4.5%	6.0%	2.7%
Last Place in Conference	3.3%	2.1%	4.8%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	6.1%	7.8%	4.0%
Second Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 5	4 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 4	13 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	167	South Alabama	W	70-69	56%
Nov 08, 2025	185	Marshall	W	78-75	59%
Nov 11, 2025	206	@ Wright St.	L	76-79	40%
Nov 15, 2025	310	Detroit Mercy	W	79-70	80%
Nov 19, 2025	184	Youngstown St.	W	79-76	59%
Nov 24, 2025	130	Troy	L	71-75	36%
Dec 06, 2025	201	@ Oakland	L	70-73	41%
Dec 16, 2025	21	@ Michigan St.	L	64-85	3%
Dec 30, 2025	282	Western Michigan	W	80-72	75%
Jan 03, 2026	299	@ Central Michigan	W	76-74	58%
Jan 06, 2026	314	@ Northern Illinois	W	79-75	62%
Jan 10, 2026	125	Miami (OH)	L	77-78	45%
Jan 13, 2026	152	Ohio	W	80-79	52%
Jan 17, 2026	127	@ Kent St.	L	70-77	27%
Jan 20, 2026	170	@ Massachusetts	L	76-80	36%
Jan 24, 2026	212	Bowling Green	W	79-75	62%
Jan 27, 2026	108	@ Akron	L	77-86	22%
Jan 31, 2026	247	Ball St.	W	78-73	67%
Feb 03, 2026	127	Kent St.	L	73-74	45%
Feb 11, 2026	282	@ Western Michigan	W	77-75	56%
Feb 14, 2026	212	@ Bowling Green	L	76-78	43%
Feb 21, 2026	292	Eastern Michigan	W	81-73	75%
Feb 24, 2026	314	Northern Illinois	W	82-72	78%
Feb 28, 2026	152	@ Ohio	L	77-83	33%
Mar 06, 2026	337	Buffalo	W	85-73	83%
Projected Record						13 - 12	9 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.5	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.1			4.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.3	2.6	2.3	0.8	0.1				7.1	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.8	3.6	2.6	0.6	0.0					8.9	3rd
4th										0.2	1.8	4.4	3.2	0.6	0.0						10.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.8	5.1	3.7	0.8	0.0							11.6	5th
6th								0.1	1.4	5.0	4.3	1.0	0.0								11.8	6th
7th							0.1	1.0	4.3	4.3	0.9	0.1									10.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.8	3.6	4.1	1.3	0.1										10.0	8th
9th						0.5	2.8	3.9	1.2	0.1											8.5	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	1.9	2.9	1.4	0.2												6.7	10th
11th			0.0	0.3	1.4	2.1	1.0	0.1													5.1	11th
12th		0.0	0.3	0.9	1.2	0.7	0.1														3.2	12th
13th	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0														1.5	13th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.9	1.7	3.2	5.3	7.8	10.2	11.2	12.8	12.5	11.1	9.1	6.4	4.4	2.1	1.0	0.1				Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	91.3%	0.9		0.7	0.2
15-3	62.9%	1.3		0.8	0.4	0.1
14-4	34.7%	1.5		0.5	0.7	0.3	0.0
13-5	8.5%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.0%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.5%	4.5		2.3	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.1%		62.0%	62.0%		10.5						0.0		0.0				0.0	0.0					0.1
16-2	1.0%		41.3%	40.6%	0.7%	11.9											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.6		1.2%
15-3	2.1%		34.7%	34.7%		12.4												0.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.4
14-4	4.4%		20.0%	20.0%		12.8												0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0		3.5
13-5	6.4%		15.1%	15.1%		13.4													0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1		5.4
12-6	9.1%		10.5%	10.5%		13.8													0.1	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	8.1
11-7	11.1%		7.7%	7.7%		14.8													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	10.3
10-8	12.5%		5.6%	5.6%		15.2														0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	11.8
9-9	12.8%		3.1%	3.1%		17.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	12.4
8-10	11.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.6																0.0	0.1	11.1
7-11	10.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																0.0	0.0	10.2
6-12	7.8%																							7.8
5-13	5.3%																							5.3
4-14	3.2%																							3.2
3-15	1.7%																							1.7
2-16	0.9%																							0.9
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		6.1%	6.1%	0.0%	13.8						0.0		0.0			0.0	0.2	1.2	1.6	1.7	1.1	0.4	93.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%