Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
189 Southern 26.4%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 13 - 6 -2.0      -3.3 270 +1.2 127 70.5 109 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 Jackson St. 17.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 12 - 6 -4.2      -2.4 241 -1.8 234 70.3 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
249 Bethune-Cookman 15.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 11 - 6 -4.7      -3.0 257 -1.7 229 71.4 87 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Grambling St. 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 7 -6.9      -5.5 321 -1.4 216 61.7 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 Alabama St. 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -7.2      -4.3 295 -2.9 271 68.9 151 0.0 1 0.0 1
290 Texas Southern 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 7 -7.3      -5.7 323 -1.6 221 73.2 54 0.0 1 0.0 1
323 Alcorn St. 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 10 - 9 -9.7      -5.7 326 -4.0 302 63.1 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
327 Alabama A&M 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -9.9      -5.2 319 -4.7 316 75.7 22 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Florida A&M 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 7 - 9 -11.0      -5.7 325 -5.3 331 67.6 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
340 Prairie View 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 16 7 - 8 -11.4      -6.0 334 -5.4 333 74.3 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
364 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 26 3 - 14 -23.4      -11.4 364 -12.0 365 77.4 14 0.0 1 0.0 1
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 28 2 - 15 -24.6      -14.5 365 -10.1 364 63.3 306 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.6 40.8 19.8 12.0 8.0 5.7 4.1 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 3.1 28.7 23.1 15.3 10.3 7.8 5.3 4.1 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 4.4 13.5 15.4 14.5 13.4 11.8 9.8 7.7 6.0 4.4 2.6 0.7 0.1
Grambling St. 5.8 4.3 8.1 10.2 11.2 11.8 12.5 12.3 11.5 9.7 6.8 1.6 0.2
Alabama St. 4.7 9.7 13.1 14.4 14.0 13.0 10.8 9.0 7.1 5.0 2.9 0.8 0.2
Texas Southern 5.2 7.3 10.1 12.7 13.2 12.9 11.3 10.7 8.9 6.8 4.6 1.2 0.2
Alcorn St. 5.3 9.2 9.9 11.1 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.2 8.4 7.3 5.1 1.9 0.4
Alabama A&M 5.8 5.5 7.9 10.5 11.4 11.3 12.1 12.2 11.2 8.9 6.4 2.3 0.5
Florida A&M 7.6 1.3 2.4 4.2 5.5 7.2 9.3 11.8 13.6 17.3 17.9 7.3 2.1
Prairie View 7.7 0.5 1.5 2.9 4.6 7.3 9.8 13.4 17.2 19.7 16.9 5.0 1.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.7 6.3 14.9 41.0 32.7
Mississippi Valley 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.8 11.9 35.1 44.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.8 6.4 8.4 10.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 10.9 8.3 4.8
Jackson St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.4 6.3 8.6 10.4 12.8 14.4 12.9 11.4 8.0 4.5 1.5
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.7 8.3 10.5 12.4 13.2 12.1 10.7 9.1 5.9 2.9 0.9
Grambling St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.5 6.0 8.7 10.7 12.5 13.0 12.5 11.1 9.0 5.8 3.4 1.4 0.4
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.6 6.9 9.9 11.6 13.4 13.5 12.0 10.0 6.8 4.4 1.9 0.5
Texas Southern 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.2 8.8 10.8 12.6 13.0 12.5 10.9 7.9 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.3
Alcorn St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.5 6.5 8.7 11.3 12.1 12.3 11.2 9.6 7.4 4.8 3.5 2.3 1.1 0.4
Alabama A&M 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.4 8.2 10.7 12.3 12.6 11.9 10.8 8.6 6.0 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 3.5 6.9 9.5 12.0 13.9 12.7 11.3 10.0 7.7 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Prairie View 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.4 9.3 12.8 15.0 16.2 13.6 10.5 7.0 4.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3 - 15 10.3 19.9 22.8 19.3 12.7 7.0 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 15.3 24.9 23.1 16.6 9.9 5.2 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 40.8% 30.5 8.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 28.7% 19.4 7.5 1.5 0.2 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 13.5% 8.1 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Grambling St. 4.3% 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 9.7% 5.4 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Texas Southern 7.3% 4.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 9.2% 5.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 5.5% 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
Florida A&M 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 6.4 8.2 9.3 72.4 0.0%
Jackson St. 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.4 9.2 82.7 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.8 4.5 7.4 84.9 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 6.0 91.1 0.0%
Alabama St. 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 6.3 91.3 0.0%
Texas Southern 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 6.1 91.4 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 4.0 95.2 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 3.4 95.8 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 97.4 0.0%
Prairie View 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 97.7 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 27.6% 5.4% 27.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 17.3% 5.5% 16.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 15.1% 4.8% 14.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.9% 3.8% 8.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 8.7% 4.5% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 8.6% 4.0% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.8% 3.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.2% 2.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 2.3% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 84.6% 0.9 15.4 77.2 7.3 0.0
2nd Round 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0