IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.2	#289
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.9	#151
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.3	#295

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#271

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.7%	14.0%	8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.0	14.9	15.5

.500 or above	32.3%	62.4%	30.7%
.500 or above in Conference	74.1%	89.4%	73.3%
Conference Champion	9.7%	20.1%	9.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%

First Four	4.5%	2.9%	4.6%
First Round	7.4%	12.9%	7.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 5.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 11
Quad 4	13 - 7	14 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	75	@ Florida St.	L	64-82	5%
Nov 11, 2025	103	@ UAB	L	67-82	8%
Nov 17, 2025	84	@ Colorado	L	61-78	6%
Nov 19, 2025	277	@ Air Force	L	64-68	37%
Nov 21, 2025	359	IU Indianapolis	W	74-66	75%
Nov 23, 2025	240	SIU Edwardsville	L	66-69	40%
Nov 26, 2025	81	@ New Mexico	L	67-84	7%
Dec 07, 2025	325	@ Tennessee Martin	L	69-70	49%
Dec 11, 2025	37	@ Missouri	L	62-86	2%
Dec 17, 2025	45	@ Cincinnati	L	56-78	3%
Dec 22, 2025	51	@ Memphis	L	64-85	4%
Dec 29, 2025	32	@ Mississippi St.	L	60-84	2%
Jan 03, 2026	365	@ Mississippi Valley	W	73-59	89%
Jan 05, 2026	364	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	82-69	87%
Jan 10, 2026	238	Jackson St.	L	71-72	50%
Jan 12, 2026	323	Alcorn St.	W	70-65	68%
Jan 17, 2026	327	Alabama A&M	W	77-71	69%
Jan 24, 2026	340	@ Prairie View	W	74-73	53%
Jan 26, 2026	290	@ Texas Southern	L	70-73	41%
Jan 31, 2026	249	Bethune-Cookman	W	72-71	51%
Feb 02, 2026	338	Florida A&M	W	74-67	71%
Feb 07, 2026	284	@ Grambling St.	L	64-67	39%
Feb 09, 2026	189	@ Southern	L	66-74	25%
Feb 14, 2026	364	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	85-66	94%
Feb 16, 2026	365	Mississippi Valley	W	76-56	95%
Feb 19, 2026	338	@ Florida A&M	W	71-70	52%
Feb 19, 2026	249	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	69-75	32%
Feb 28, 2026	327	@ Alabama A&M	L	74-75	50%
Mar 03, 2026	189	Southern	L	69-71	42%
Mar 05, 2026	284	Grambling St.	W	67-64	59%
Projected Record						13 - 17	10 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.4	2.7	3.2	1.7	0.5			9.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	2.9	5.0	3.3	1.2	0.2				13.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	3.9	5.8	3.2	0.7	0.0					14.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.7	4.1	6.0	2.7	0.5	0.0						14.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.5	3.4	5.9	2.7	0.3	0.0							13.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.4	2.6	5.0	2.6	0.2	0.0								10.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.9	4.3	2.2	0.2	0.0									9.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.5	3.0	2.2	0.3											7.1	8th
9th					0.2	1.0	2.2	1.4	0.2												5.0	9th
10th				0.2	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0												2.9	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0														0.8	11th
12th		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.2	12th

Total		0.1	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.6	4.6	6.9	9.9	11.6	13.4	13.5	12.0	10.0	6.8	4.4	1.9	0.5				Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5
16-2	90.3%	1.7		1.5	0.2
15-3	71.9%	3.2		2.1	1.0	0.1
14-4	40.2%	2.7		1.1	1.4	0.3	0.0
13-5	13.8%	1.4		0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1
12-6	1.8%	0.2			0.1	0.1	0.1		0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.7%	9.7		5.4	3.3	0.8	0.2		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.5%		47.6%	47.6%		13.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.2
16-2	1.9%		40.5%	40.5%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	1.1
15-3	4.4%		30.2%	30.2%		16.2													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	3.1
14-4	6.8%		18.0%	18.0%		17.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	5.6
13-5	10.0%		14.6%	14.6%		18.2														0.0	0.0	0.4	1.2	8.6
12-6	12.0%		11.5%	11.5%		17.5															0.0	0.2	1.3	10.6
11-7	13.5%		7.7%	7.7%		17.3															0.0	0.1	1.0	12.4
10-8	13.4%		5.6%	5.6%		17.3																0.0	0.8	12.7
9-9	11.6%		2.9%	2.9%		16.3																	0.3	11.2
8-10	9.9%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	9.8
7-11	6.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
6-12	4.6%																							4.6
5-13	2.6%																							2.6
4-14	1.2%																							1.2
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18

Total	100%		8.7%	8.7%	0.0%	17.0													0.1	0.3	0.9	1.9	6.3	91.3		0.0%