Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+23.5#2
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.7#295
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+14.6#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 14.7% 14.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 44.8% 44.9% 16.6%
Top 2 Seed 69.6% 69.7% 33.3%
Top 4 Seed 88.1% 88.2% 61.1%
Top 6 Seed 94.6% 94.7% 72.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 98.7% 91.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.0% 98.1% 90.9%
Average Seed 2.3 2.3 4.1
.500 or above 99.4% 99.4% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 97.9% 94.5%
Conference Champion 46.9% 47.0% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 2.8%
First Round98.5% 98.5% 91.7%
Second Round94.4% 94.4% 86.2%
Sweet Sixteen74.0% 74.1% 55.4%
Elite Eight51.1% 51.1% 33.3%
Final Four32.5% 32.5% 13.8%
Championship Game20.1% 20.1% 8.3%
National Champion12.0% 12.1% 2.8%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 112 - 5
Quad 27 - 119 - 6
Quad 34 - 023 - 6
Quad 43 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 231   Evansville W 84-54 99.7%   
  Nov 07, 2025 201   Oakland W 82-53 99.5%   
  Nov 13, 2025 19   @ Alabama W 83-79 64%    
  Nov 16, 2025 108   Akron W 88-66 98%    
  Nov 20, 2025 51   Memphis W 81-68 87%    
  Nov 28, 2025 321   Eastern Illinois W 86-50 99.9%   
  Dec 02, 2025 82   @ Rutgers W 79-65 89%    
  Dec 06, 2025 20   Iowa St. W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 10, 2025 87   Minnesota W 77-56 96%    
  Dec 13, 2025 43   Marquette W 78-64 89%    
  Dec 20, 2025 22   Auburn W 77-69 74%    
  Dec 29, 2025 127   Kent St. W 81-57 98%    
  Jan 03, 2026 26   @ Wisconsin W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 07, 2026 48   Washington W 80-65 90%    
  Jan 10, 2026 90   Penn St. W 84-63 96%    
  Jan 14, 2026 34   Iowa W 83-70 86%    
  Jan 17, 2026 29   @ USC W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 20, 2026 13   @ UCLA W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 24, 2026 15   Illinois W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 27, 2026 33   @ Indiana W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 01, 2026 40   @ Maryland W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 07, 2026 28   Oregon W 78-66 84%    
  Feb 10, 2026 59   @ Nebraska W 78-67 82%    
  Feb 14, 2026 34   @ Iowa W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 17, 2026 6   Michigan W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 20, 2026 33   Indiana W 79-66 86%    
  Feb 26, 2026 21   Michigan St. W 76-65 81%    
  Mar 01, 2026 27   @ Ohio St. W 76-70 69%    
  Mar 04, 2026 72   @ Northwestern W 75-62 85%    
  Mar 07, 2026 26   Wisconsin W 78-67 82%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 5.1 10.3 13.4 11.3 5.4 46.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.6 6.4 5.0 1.5 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 1.4 0.2 6.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.2 6.7 9.0 11.7 14.0 15.8 14.9 11.4 5.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 5.4    5.4
19-1 99.0% 11.3    10.5 0.8 0.0
18-2 89.9% 13.4    10.6 2.7 0.1
17-3 65.3% 10.3    6.1 3.6 0.5 0.1
16-4 36.5% 5.1    1.9 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 10.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.9% 46.9 34.8 9.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 5.4% 100.0% 65.8% 34.2% 1.1 5.0 0.5 100.0%
19-1 11.4% 100.0% 55.9% 44.1% 1.1 9.8 1.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 14.9% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 1.2 11.5 3.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 15.8% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.5 9.3 5.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.0% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.8 5.8 5.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.7% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.3 2.4 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.0% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.0 0.8 2.3 3.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.7% 99.9% 9.2% 90.7% 3.9 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 4.2% 99.5% 6.3% 93.2% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-9 2.9% 97.1% 1.9% 95.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.0%
10-10 1.9% 89.5% 2.9% 86.6% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 89.2%
9-11 1.0% 73.5% 2.0% 71.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 73.0%
8-12 0.6% 43.9% 2.4% 41.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 42.5%
7-13 0.3% 21.3% 2.6% 18.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 19.2%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.7% 33.0% 65.7% 2.3 44.8 24.8 11.6 6.9 4.0 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 98.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1