Preseason Rankings
USC
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#120
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.7% 6.8% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 19.7% 20.0% 5.9%
Top 6 Seed 35.5% 36.0% 12.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.2% 64.8% 34.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.9% 63.5% 33.1%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.3
.500 or above 83.4% 84.0% 54.7%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 61.0% 34.1%
Conference Champion 3.8% 3.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.2% 5.5%
First Four5.2% 5.2% 5.5%
First Round61.8% 62.4% 31.9%
Second Round44.4% 44.9% 20.8%
Sweet Sixteen20.7% 21.0% 9.7%
Elite Eight9.0% 9.1% 4.5%
Final Four3.9% 3.9% 2.4%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 35 - 115 - 11
Quad 44 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 253   Cal Poly W 94-72 98%    
  Nov 09, 2025 252   Manhattan W 86-64 98%    
  Nov 14, 2025 105   Illinois St. W 78-68 82%    
  Nov 20, 2025 130   Troy W 78-63 91%    
  Nov 24, 2025 62   Boise St. W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 02, 2025 28   @ Oregon L 72-75 39%    
  Dec 06, 2025 48   Washington W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 09, 2025 180   @ San Diego W 85-72 87%    
  Dec 14, 2025 128   Washington St. W 85-70 91%    
  Dec 17, 2025 168   Texas San Antonio W 86-68 94%    
  Dec 21, 2025 169   Brown W 79-61 94%    
  Jan 02, 2026 6   @ Michigan L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 05, 2026 21   @ Michigan St. L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 09, 2026 87   @ Minnesota W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 13, 2026 40   Maryland W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 17, 2026 2   Purdue L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 21, 2026 72   Northwestern W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 25, 2026 26   @ Wisconsin L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 28, 2026 34   @ Iowa L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 31, 2026 82   Rutgers W 79-68 81%    
  Feb 03, 2026 33   Indiana W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 08, 2026 90   @ Penn St. W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 11, 2026 27   @ Ohio St. L 73-77 39%    
  Feb 18, 2026 15   Illinois L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 21, 2026 28   Oregon W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 24, 2026 13   @ UCLA L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 28, 2026 59   Nebraska W 78-70 74%    
  Mar 04, 2026 48   @ Washington W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 07, 2026 13   UCLA L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.4 2.3 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.9 0.8 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.3 0.2 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.2 1.6 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.5 0.2 5.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.7 14th
15th 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.0 8.8 10.2 10.5 10.6 9.9 8.8 7.6 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 80.8% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
17-3 52.7% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 25.9% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 6.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.7% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 2.7 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.8% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 3.4 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.6% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.8% 99.2% 4.4% 94.8% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 9.9% 97.9% 2.4% 95.5% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.9%
11-9 10.6% 92.6% 1.6% 91.1% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.8 92.5%
10-10 10.5% 78.4% 1.1% 77.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 2.3 78.2%
9-11 10.2% 50.9% 0.3% 50.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.4 0.0 5.0 50.7%
8-12 8.8% 18.4% 0.1% 18.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 7.2 18.3%
7-13 7.0% 3.1% 3.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.8 3.1%
6-14 5.6% 5.6
5-15 3.8% 3.8
4-16 2.2% 2.2
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.2% 3.7% 60.6% 6.1 2.7 3.9 6.0 7.0 8.0 7.8 7.3 6.6 5.9 5.6 3.2 0.1 0.0 35.8 62.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0