Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#60
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#247
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 3.9% 3.9% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 27.0% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.7% 8.9% 1.1%
Average Seed 9.4 9.4 9.7
.500 or above 94.7% 94.9% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 87.3% 69.9%
Conference Champion 29.2% 29.4% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 2.0%
First Four2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
First Round25.3% 25.5% 7.0%
Second Round11.1% 11.2% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 3.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 35 - 6
Quad 38 - 313 - 9
Quad 49 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 335   Wagner W 69-46 99%    
  Nov 07, 2025 54   Utah St. L 70-71 47%    
  Nov 12, 2025 295   St. Peter's W 71-51 97%    
  Nov 17, 2025 31   @ North Carolina St. L 63-71 25%    
  Nov 22, 2025 361   Coppin St. W 80-52 99%    
  Nov 26, 2025 95   South Florida W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 05, 2025 171   Samford W 80-67 87%    
  Dec 10, 2025 81   New Mexico W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 15, 2025 333   Niagara W 77-54 97%    
  Dec 18, 2025 303   American W 73-53 96%    
  Dec 22, 2025 309   Rider W 76-55 97%    
  Dec 31, 2025 124   St. Bonaventure W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 03, 2026 116   @ Duquesne W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 07, 2026 70   Saint Louis W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 10, 2026 101   @ George Mason W 64-63 55%    
  Jan 14, 2026 143   @ Rhode Island W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 19, 2026 110   Saint Joseph's W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 24, 2026 145   @ Davidson W 70-64 68%    
  Jan 27, 2026 131   Richmond W 70-60 80%    
  Jan 30, 2026 94   Loyola Chicago W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 03, 2026 163   @ Fordham W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 06, 2026 65   Dayton W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 11, 2026 187   @ La Salle W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 14, 2026 131   @ Richmond W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 17, 2026 85   George Washington W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 20, 2026 70   @ Saint Louis L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 28, 2026 163   Fordham W 78-65 85%    
  Mar 03, 2026 101   George Mason W 67-60 72%    
  Mar 06, 2026 65   @ Dayton L 65-68 41%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 7.7 7.2 4.1 1.6 29.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.0 5.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.9 3.4 0.9 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 3.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.3 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.6 4.9 7.2 9.2 10.8 12.4 12.6 11.7 10.0 7.5 4.1 1.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.3% 4.1    3.9 0.2
16-2 95.8% 7.2    6.4 0.8 0.0
15-3 77.2% 7.7    5.2 2.3 0.2
14-4 46.2% 5.4    2.5 2.2 0.6 0.1
13-5 21.3% 2.7    0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 20.3 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 95.1% 62.6% 32.5% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 86.9%
17-1 4.1% 85.5% 52.8% 32.7% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 69.3%
16-2 7.5% 69.8% 42.5% 27.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.3 47.5%
15-3 10.0% 49.0% 31.5% 17.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.1 5.1 25.4%
14-4 11.7% 34.8% 27.0% 7.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.6 10.7%
13-5 12.6% 23.0% 20.4% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.7 3.3%
12-6 12.4% 17.3% 16.7% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 10.2 0.8%
11-7 10.8% 11.9% 11.7% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 9.5 0.3%
10-8 9.2% 7.3% 7.3% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 8.6
9-9 7.2% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.9 0.1%
8-10 4.9% 2.7% 2.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-11 3.6% 1.4% 1.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 22.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 26.7% 19.7% 7.0% 9.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.7 4.5 9.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.3 8.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 23.1 36.8 26.7 13.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 85.7% 3.5 14.3 28.6 28.6 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 14.1 14.1 14.1 43.4 14.1