Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#303
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.8#349
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#318
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 16.0% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.6 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 33.7% 66.8% 32.6%
.500 or above in Conference 55.1% 76.7% 54.4%
Conference Champion 8.8% 21.4% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 4.6% 9.9%
First Four4.1% 4.4% 4.1%
First Round7.1% 15.1% 6.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 3.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 412 - 1013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 67   @ Wake Forest L 55-75 3%    
  Nov 09, 2025 278   Penn W 68-67 55%    
  Nov 12, 2025 85   @ George Washington L 58-76 5%    
  Nov 18, 2025 82   @ Rutgers L 58-76 6%    
  Nov 28, 2025 285   Maine W 63-61 57%    
  Nov 29, 2025 213   Siena L 65-67 42%    
  Nov 30, 2025 202   Longwood L 67-70 41%    
  Dec 03, 2025 225   Drexel L 60-61 45%    
  Dec 06, 2025 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-58 82%    
  Dec 18, 2025 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 53-73 4%    
  Dec 22, 2025 44   @ Virginia L 49-72 2%    
  Dec 31, 2025 316   Loyola Maryland W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 03, 2026 280   @ Boston University L 59-64 35%    
  Jan 07, 2026 227   @ Colgate L 62-69 27%    
  Jan 10, 2026 346   Holy Cross W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 12, 2026 230   Navy L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 18, 2026 353   @ Army W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 21, 2026 227   Colgate L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 24, 2026 346   @ Holy Cross W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 28, 2026 316   @ Loyola Maryland L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 31, 2026 308   Lafayette W 64-61 60%    
  Feb 04, 2026 286   Bucknell W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 07, 2026 230   @ Navy L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 11, 2026 302   @ Lehigh L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 14, 2026 353   Army W 70-62 74%    
  Feb 18, 2026 286   @ Bucknell L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 21, 2026 308   @ Lafayette L 61-64 42%    
  Feb 25, 2026 302   Lehigh W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 28, 2026 280   Boston University W 62-61 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 3.5 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.1 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 4.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.8 2.2 0.3 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.3 3.0 4.7 6.5 8.1 9.6 10.8 11.6 11.0 9.5 8.4 6.1 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.7% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 82.1% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 56.6% 2.3    1.3 0.8 0.1
13-5 30.5% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 5.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 69.7% 69.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 48.0% 48.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.3% 37.0% 37.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.6% 32.9% 32.9% 17.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.7
14-4 4.0% 23.9% 23.9% 17.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 3.0
13-5 6.1% 18.7% 18.7% 18.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 5.0
12-6 8.4% 16.7% 16.7% 19.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 7.0
11-7 9.5% 9.7% 9.7% 17.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 8.6
10-8 11.0% 7.7% 7.7% 18.1 0.0 0.9 10.1
9-9 11.6% 5.2% 5.2% 17.1 0.0 0.6 11.0
8-10 10.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.9 0.3 10.5
7-11 9.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 9.5
6-12 8.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 8.1
5-13 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.5
4-14 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 17.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 6.1 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%