Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#162
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#208
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 37.5% 27.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 81.9% 90.7% 73.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 95.5% 89.4%
Conference Champion 47.0% 54.7% 39.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four3.3% 2.1% 4.5%
First Round32.7% 37.9% 27.9%
Second Round1.7% 2.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 416 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2025 216   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-71 49%    
  Nov 12, 2025 43   @ Marquette L 61-77 8%    
  Nov 15, 2025 247   @ Ball St. W 70-69 54%    
  Nov 18, 2025 129   @ Murray St. L 64-70 31%    
  Nov 21, 2025 197   @ Texas St. L 68-69 46%    
  Nov 29, 2025 138   @ Southern Illinois L 67-72 32%    
  Dec 03, 2025 354   @ Central Arkansas W 74-64 81%    
  Dec 06, 2025 137   Arkansas St. W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 09, 2025 58   @ West Virginia L 59-72 13%    
  Dec 16, 2025 291   @ Morehead St. W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 18, 2025 311   @ Southern Indiana W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 01, 2026 324   Tennessee Tech W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 03, 2026 268   Tennessee St. W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 08, 2026 240   @ SIU Edwardsville W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 10, 2026 326   @ Lindenwood W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 15, 2026 321   Eastern Illinois W 72-60 84%    
  Jan 17, 2026 343   Western Illinois W 73-59 88%    
  Jan 22, 2026 228   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 24, 2026 325   @ Tennessee Martin W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 29, 2026 268   @ Tennessee St. W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 324   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 05, 2026 326   Lindenwood W 76-64 85%    
  Feb 07, 2026 240   SIU Edwardsville W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 12, 2026 343   @ Western Illinois W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 14, 2026 321   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 19, 2026 325   Tennessee Martin W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 21, 2026 228   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 26, 2026 291   Morehead St. W 70-60 79%    
  Feb 28, 2026 311   Southern Indiana W 75-64 81%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.6 6.4 9.6 10.6 8.9 5.9 2.3 47.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.5 6.0 5.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.1 3.9 2.5 0.8 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 3.2 4.1 6.0 7.7 9.5 11.3 12.6 12.6 11.5 9.0 5.9 2.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
19-1 100.0% 5.9    5.9 0.0
18-2 98.8% 8.9    8.5 0.4
17-3 92.5% 10.6    9.0 1.6 0.0
16-4 76.0% 9.6    6.9 2.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 51.2% 6.4    3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0
14-6 22.7% 2.6    0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.2% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.0% 47.0 36.9 8.2 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.3% 79.3% 79.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5
19-1 5.9% 63.2% 63.2% 12.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2
18-2 9.0% 56.4% 56.4% 13.4 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.9
17-3 11.5% 47.2% 47.2% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.2 6.1
16-4 12.6% 43.5% 43.5% 15.1 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.2 0.7 7.1
15-5 12.6% 35.8% 35.8% 16.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.4 8.1
14-6 11.3% 26.5% 26.5% 17.7 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.7 8.3
13-7 9.5% 17.6% 17.6% 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 7.8
12-8 7.7% 12.3% 12.3% 18.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 6.7
11-9 6.0% 8.2% 8.2% 18.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.5
10-10 4.1% 4.8% 4.8% 18.8 0.0 0.2 3.9
9-11 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.1
8-12 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 1.3% 1.3
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.4% 32.4% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 6.0 8.0 9.0 6.9 67.6 0.0%