IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Missouri Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.9	#111
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.2	#30
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.3	#89

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.6	#146

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.4%	15.3%	7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	0.9%	0.1%
Average Seed	11.7	11.6	12.5

.500 or above	79.4%	82.1%	57.1%
.500 or above in Conference	73.7%	75.7%	57.0%
Conference Champion	17.9%	19.0%	8.7%
Last Place in Conference	2.9%	2.5%	5.8%

First Four	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
First Round	14.2%	15.1%	7.1%
Second Round	3.1%	3.3%	1.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.7%	0.8%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 89.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 5	10 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 2	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	277	Air Force	W	77-64	89%
Nov 08, 2025	268	Tennessee St.	W	86-73	88%
Nov 15, 2025	318	@ Oral Roberts	W	82-72	81%
Nov 19, 2025	188	Lipscomb	W	79-70	79%
Nov 24, 2025	345	St. Francis (PA)	W	83-67	92%
Nov 30, 2025	123	@ College of Charleston	L	79-80	44%
Dec 03, 2025	131	Richmond	W	74-69	67%
Dec 07, 2025	151	@ Middle Tennessee	W	77-76	51%
Dec 13, 2025	153	Illinois-Chicago	W	81-74	73%
Dec 16, 2025	231	@ Evansville	W	75-70	66%
Dec 19, 2025	92	@ UC Irvine	L	73-78	34%
Dec 29, 2025	173	@ Indiana St.	W	85-83	57%
Jan 01, 2026	107	Bradley	W	75-72	59%
Jan 04, 2026	138	Southern Illinois	W	79-74	67%
Jan 07, 2026	112	@ Northern Iowa	L	71-74	40%
Jan 10, 2026	113	@ Drake	L	63-66	42%
Jan 13, 2026	261	Valparaiso	W	83-71	85%
Jan 17, 2026	138	@ Southern Illinois	L	76-77	48%
Jan 25, 2026	105	Illinois St.	W	77-75	58%
Jan 28, 2026	261	@ Valparaiso	W	80-74	69%
Jan 31, 2026	129	Murray St.	W	75-70	65%
Feb 03, 2026	113	Drake	W	66-63	61%
Feb 06, 2026	153	@ Illinois-Chicago	W	78-77	52%
Feb 09, 2026	107	@ Bradley	L	72-75	40%
Feb 12, 2026	112	Northern Iowa	W	74-71	60%
Feb 15, 2026	129	@ Murray St.	L	72-73	46%
Feb 21, 2026	173	Indiana St.	W	88-80	74%
Feb 25, 2026	231	Evansville	W	78-67	81%
Mar 01, 2026	105	@ Illinois St.	L	74-78	39%
Projected Record						18 - 11	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.5	3.2	4.4	4.0	2.7	1.3	0.4		17.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.6	2.8	5.0	3.9	2.0	0.6	0.1				14.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	3.3	5.0	3.0	0.8	0.2						13.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	3.4	4.5	2.4	0.5	0.0							11.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	3.1	3.9	2.0	0.2									10.0	5th
6th								0.1	0.7	2.9	3.9	1.4	0.2										9.0	6th
7th							0.1	0.5	2.2	3.3	1.5	0.2											7.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.2	2.5	1.0	0.1												6.4	8th
9th					0.1	0.6	1.6	1.6	0.7	0.1													4.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	0.6	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.0														3.2	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0															1.6	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.1	3.2	4.6	6.2	8.0	9.1	9.8	10.5	10.8	10.0	7.9	6.5	4.6	2.8	1.3	0.4			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
19-1	100.0%	1.3		1.3	0.0
18-2	97.0%	2.7		2.5	0.1
17-3	87.1%	4.0		3.3	0.6	0.0
16-4	66.6%	4.4		2.7	1.4	0.2
15-5	41.0%	3.2		1.5	1.3	0.4	0.0
14-6	15.1%	1.5		0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	3.2%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	17.9%	17.9		12.3	4.3	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.4%		74.7%	54.2%	20.5%	7.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0						0.1		44.8%
19-1	1.3%		69.8%	52.9%	16.8%	9.3					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.0					0.4		35.8%
18-2	2.8%		52.7%	45.4%	7.3%	10.7								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	0.1	0.0				1.3		13.5%
17-3	4.6%		38.5%	36.0%	2.5%	11.2										0.0	0.2	1.0	0.5	0.0				2.8		3.9%
16-4	6.5%		33.2%	32.9%	0.3%	11.5										0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.1				4.4		0.5%
15-5	7.9%		24.5%	24.4%	0.1%	11.8											0.0	0.6	1.0	0.3	0.0			5.9		0.1%
14-6	10.0%		18.6%	18.6%		12.1												0.4	1.0	0.4	0.1			8.1
13-7	10.8%		14.4%	14.4%		12.3												0.2	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0		9.2
12-8	10.5%		9.3%	9.3%		12.6												0.0	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0		9.5
11-9	9.8%		7.2%	7.2%		13.0													0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0		9.1
10-10	9.1%		4.6%	4.6%		13.4													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	8.7
9-11	8.0%		2.3%	2.3%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	7.9
8-12	6.2%		1.1%	1.1%		18.1															0.0	0.0	0.0	6.1
7-13	4.6%		1.2%	1.2%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.6
6-14	3.2%		1.1%	1.1%		15.6																0.0	0.0	3.2
5-15	2.1%																							2.1
4-16	1.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
3-17	0.6%																							0.6
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		14.4%	13.8%	0.7%	11.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	4.6	5.1	2.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	85.6		0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	3.9	7.6	31.5	15.2	15.2	7.6	7.6	7.6			7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	50.0%	8.0								50.0