IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.4	#181
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.5	#168
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.0	#132

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.5	#258

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	19.0%	22.6%	14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	13.9	14.5

.500 or above	73.1%	82.7%	60.0%
.500 or above in Conference	87.2%	90.7%	82.3%
Conference Champion	24.8%	29.7%	18.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.5%	1.0%

First Four	1.5%	1.3%	1.8%
First Round	19.0%	22.7%	13.9%
Second Round	1.1%	1.6%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 7
Quad 4	14 - 5	18 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2025	161	Western Kentucky	W	78-76	58%
Nov 12, 2025	41	@ Vanderbilt	L	68-85	6%
Nov 22, 2025	246	Mercer	W	78-72	71%
Nov 24, 2025	266	@ Northern Kentucky	W	71-70	55%
Nov 29, 2025	205	Wofford	W	72-68	64%
Dec 03, 2025	105	@ Illinois St.	L	69-78	22%
Dec 10, 2025	321	@ Eastern Illinois	W	72-67	67%
Dec 13, 2025	125	Miami (OH)	L	75-76	49%
Dec 17, 2025	154	@ Jacksonville St.	L	66-71	34%
Dec 21, 2025	122	@ Wichita St.	L	71-78	28%
Jan 01, 2026	242	@ Queens	W	76-75	51%
Jan 03, 2026	355	@ West Georgia	W	78-69	79%
Jan 08, 2026	191	North Alabama	W	74-70	62%
Jan 10, 2026	354	Central Arkansas	W	79-64	90%
Jan 15, 2026	272	@ Austin Peay	W	72-70	56%
Jan 17, 2026	319	Bellarmine	W	80-69	82%
Jan 22, 2026	330	@ North Florida	W	84-78	69%
Jan 24, 2026	245	@ Jacksonville	W	72-71	50%
Jan 28, 2026	272	Austin Peay	W	75-67	74%
Jan 31, 2026	354	@ Central Arkansas	W	76-67	77%
Feb 05, 2026	175	Florida Gulf Coast	W	72-69	59%
Feb 07, 2026	348	Stetson	W	81-67	87%
Feb 11, 2026	188	@ Lipscomb	L	70-72	42%
Feb 14, 2026	191	@ North Alabama	L	71-73	43%
Feb 18, 2026	355	West Georgia	W	81-66	89%
Feb 21, 2026	319	@ Bellarmine	W	77-72	66%
Feb 25, 2026	242	Queens	W	79-73	69%
Feb 28, 2026	188	Lipscomb	W	73-69	62%
Projected Record						17 - 11	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.3	4.4	7.0	6.6	3.9	1.4		24.8	1st
2nd												0.3	2.1	5.5	6.3	2.8	0.7	0.0			17.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.2	5.4	4.8	1.7	0.1					14.6	3rd
4th										0.2	1.9	5.0	3.8	1.0	0.0						11.9	4th
5th									0.2	1.5	3.9	3.0	0.5	0.0							9.1	5th
6th								0.1	1.0	3.3	2.4	0.6	0.0								7.5	6th
7th							0.1	0.7	2.1	2.0	0.4	0.0									5.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	1.6	1.4	0.3	0.0										3.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.0											2.5	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0												1.4	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.9	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.3	12th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	2.3	3.5	4.9	7.3	9.0	11.2	12.1	12.6	12.4	10.0	7.3	3.9	1.4			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.4		1.4
17-1	99.8%	3.9		3.8	0.1
16-2	90.6%	6.6		5.4	1.2	0.1
15-3	70.2%	7.0		4.3	2.4	0.3	0.0
14-4	35.3%	4.4		1.6	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	10.3%	1.3		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	24.8%	24.8		16.7	6.4	1.5	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.4%		59.4%	59.4%		11.8						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1			0.6
17-1	3.9%		54.8%	54.8%		12.7											0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.1		1.8
16-2	7.3%		43.6%	43.6%		13.3												0.1	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.0	4.1
15-3	10.0%		35.2%	35.2%		14.0												0.0	0.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	0.1	6.4
14-4	12.4%		28.0%	28.0%		14.7													0.1	0.6	1.2	1.4	0.3	8.9
13-5	12.6%		18.0%	18.0%		16.0														0.2	0.6	1.0	0.6	10.4
12-6	12.1%		13.4%	13.4%		16.7														0.0	0.2	0.8	0.7	10.5
11-7	11.2%		8.7%	8.7%		18.1														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	10.2
10-8	9.0%		6.1%	6.1%		17.3															0.0	0.2	0.4	8.4
9-9	7.3%		3.8%	3.8%		17.7																0.1	0.2	7.0
8-10	4.9%		1.6%	1.6%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	4.9
7-11	3.5%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.1	3.4
6-12	2.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.3
5-13	1.0%																							1.0
4-14	0.6%																							0.6
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	14.6						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	1.9	3.9	4.9	5.0	3.2	81.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	6.5					50.0			50.0