IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.7	#266
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.3	#257
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.7	#280

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.0	#239

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.8%	13.2%	5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	13.2	14.7

.500 or above	41.7%	76.4%	41.4%
.500 or above in Conference	49.3%	75.5%	49.1%
Conference Champion	6.8%	15.2%	6.7%
Last Place in Conference	6.6%	2.8%	6.7%

First Four	1.2%	0.0%	1.2%
First Round	5.7%	13.2%	5.7%
Second Round	0.2%	0.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 8	14 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	16	@ Tennessee	L	51-77	1%
Nov 12, 2025	156	@ East Tennessee St.	L	61-70	21%
Nov 20, 2025	299	@ Central Michigan	L	67-68	47%
Nov 24, 2025	181	Eastern Kentucky	L	70-71	45%
Nov 26, 2025	205	Wofford	L	65-66	49%
Nov 29, 2025	280	Boston University	W	65-61	63%
Dec 03, 2025	223	Cleveland St.	W	66-65	53%
Dec 06, 2025	193	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	68-75	29%
Dec 13, 2025	319	Bellarmine	W	73-67	71%
Dec 17, 2025	201	Oakland	L	65-66	49%
Dec 21, 2025	123	College of Charleston	L	70-75	33%
Dec 29, 2025	203	@ Robert Morris	L	66-72	29%
Jan 01, 2026	359	IU Indianapolis	W	74-62	85%
Jan 04, 2026	184	Youngstown St.	L	69-70	47%
Jan 09, 2026	216	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	67-73	32%
Jan 11, 2026	306	@ Green Bay	L	71-72	49%
Jan 15, 2026	310	Detroit Mercy	W	71-65	68%
Jan 17, 2026	203	Robert Morris	L	68-69	49%
Jan 24, 2026	206	@ Wright St.	L	67-73	31%
Jan 30, 2026	310	@ Detroit Mercy	L	67-68	50%
Feb 01, 2026	201	@ Oakland	L	62-68	30%
Feb 04, 2026	306	Green Bay	W	74-69	67%
Feb 07, 2026	216	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	71-70	52%
Feb 12, 2026	359	@ IU Indianapolis	W	71-65	70%
Feb 18, 2026	193	Purdue Fort Wayne	L	71-72	48%
Feb 21, 2026	184	@ Youngstown St.	L	66-73	28%
Feb 25, 2026	223	@ Cleveland St.	L	63-68	34%
Feb 28, 2026	206	Wright St.	L	70-71	50%
Projected Record						13 - 15	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.7	1.8	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0		6.8	1st
2nd												0.1	0.5	1.9	2.7	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.0				7.6	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.6	3.3	1.8	0.4	0.0						8.8	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	2.9	3.9	1.6	0.2	0.0							9.6	4th
5th									0.1	0.9	3.4	3.9	1.4	0.1									9.8	5th
6th								0.1	1.0	3.9	4.3	1.6	0.1										11.0	6th
7th							0.2	1.3	3.8	4.4	1.3	0.2											11.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.7	3.8	4.0	1.6	0.2												11.6	8th
9th				0.1	0.6	2.1	3.9	3.1	1.0	0.1	0.0												10.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.2	2.1	2.7	1.8	0.5	0.1														8.7	10th
11th	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0															4.1	11th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.3	3.8	5.6	7.6	8.9	9.9	10.9	10.2	9.3	8.6	7.2	5.5	3.8	2.5	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.0			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
18-2	98.8%	0.6		0.5	0.1
17-3	87.7%	1.2		1.0	0.2
16-4	73.8%	1.8		1.3	0.5	0.1
15-5	45.2%	1.7		0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0
14-6	14.7%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.8%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.8%	6.8		4.1	1.9	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		16.5%	16.5%		12.0													0.0					0.0
19-1	0.2%		54.7%	54.7%		12.3												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1
18-2	0.6%		41.1%	41.1%		12.6												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.4
17-3	1.4%		32.4%	32.4%		13.2												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.9
16-4	2.5%		27.6%	27.6%		14.1													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2		1.8
15-5	3.8%		19.5%	19.5%		15.1														0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	3.0
14-6	5.5%		13.0%	13.0%		15.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	4.8
13-7	7.2%		12.1%	12.1%		17.4														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	6.3
12-8	8.6%		7.3%	7.3%		18.5															0.0	0.3	0.4	7.9
11-9	9.3%		5.7%	5.7%		18.1															0.0	0.2	0.4	8.8
10-10	10.2%		4.0%	4.0%		17.5															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.8
9-11	10.9%		1.5%	1.5%		18.7																0.0	0.2	10.7
8-12	9.9%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.9
7-13	8.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.8
6-14	7.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
5-15	5.6%																							5.6
4-16	3.8%																							3.8
3-17	2.3%																							2.3
2-18	1.2%																							1.2
1-19	0.5%																							0.5
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.8%	5.8%	0.0%	16.0												0.0	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.8	2.1	94.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%