Preseason Rankings
Missouri St.
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.3#344
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 17.8% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.8 12.7
.500 or above 81.3% 87.7% 68.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.6% 82.4% 67.9%
Conference Champion 20.4% 24.4% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.8% 4.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round15.4% 17.7% 10.9%
Second Round2.7% 3.5% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 58 - 9
Quad 411 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2025 137   Arkansas St. W 71-66 67%    
  Nov 15, 2025 190   @ Texas Arlington W 68-66 59%    
  Nov 22, 2025 275   UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-63 87%    
  Nov 24, 2025 297   LIU Brooklyn W 68-54 89%    
  Dec 06, 2025 150   @ Tulsa L 65-66 50%    
  Dec 12, 2025 50   @ Xavier L 63-73 19%    
  Dec 16, 2025 318   Oral Roberts W 75-60 91%    
  Dec 23, 2025 326   Lindenwood W 74-58 92%    
  Dec 29, 2025 236   @ Delaware W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 02, 2026 160   UTEP W 69-62 71%    
  Jan 04, 2026 139   New Mexico St. W 65-60 65%    
  Jan 07, 2026 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 10, 2026 209   Florida International W 70-61 77%    
  Jan 14, 2026 161   @ Western Kentucky W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 17, 2026 151   @ Middle Tennessee L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 22, 2026 139   @ New Mexico St. L 62-63 45%    
  Jan 24, 2026 160   @ UTEP W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 28, 2026 199   Sam Houston St. W 71-62 76%    
  Jan 31, 2026 154   Jacksonville St. W 66-60 69%    
  Feb 07, 2026 100   @ Liberty L 61-66 35%    
  Feb 12, 2026 144   Louisiana Tech W 65-59 68%    
  Feb 14, 2026 236   Delaware W 76-65 80%    
  Feb 18, 2026 146   Kennesaw St. W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 21, 2026 209   @ Florida International W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 26, 2026 144   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 28, 2026 199   @ Sam Houston St. W 68-65 58%    
  Mar 05, 2026 161   Western Kentucky W 73-66 72%    
  Mar 07, 2026 151   Middle Tennessee W 69-63 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.7 4.7 3.6 1.8 0.5 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.6 4.5 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.6 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.6 2.0 0.3 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.0 0.3 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.8 5.5 7.1 8.1 9.5 10.2 10.7 10.0 9.4 7.8 5.7 3.8 1.8 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 98.5% 1.8    1.8 0.0
18-2 94.3% 3.6    3.3 0.4
17-3 81.4% 4.7    3.7 0.9 0.0
16-4 60.2% 4.7    2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 36.3% 3.4    1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 14.2% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 14.0 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 74.8% 59.3% 15.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 38.1%
19-1 1.8% 57.4% 48.1% 9.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 18.0%
18-2 3.8% 45.8% 42.7% 3.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 5.4%
17-3 5.7% 36.2% 36.0% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.7 0.4%
16-4 7.8% 30.7% 30.5% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.3%
15-5 9.4% 25.7% 25.7% 12.3 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0
14-6 10.0% 19.1% 19.1% 12.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.1
13-7 10.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.9 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 9.2
12-8 10.2% 9.0% 9.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.3
11-9 9.5% 4.9% 4.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.1
10-10 8.1% 4.5% 4.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.7
9-11 7.1% 1.3% 1.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
8-12 5.5% 2.1% 2.1% 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
7-13 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-14 2.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.7
5-15 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.5% 15.1% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.9 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.2 84.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 7.7 46.4 15.3 15.3 15.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 7.3 32.6 34.9 32.6