Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#215
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#162
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#280
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 19.7% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 51.1% 73.9% 45.6%
.500 or above in Conference 71.8% 83.2% 69.1%
Conference Champion 17.0% 27.1% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 2.0% 5.3%
First Four2.1% 1.4% 2.3%
First Round13.1% 19.7% 11.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 411 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 117   @ Oregon St. L 63-72 19%    
  Nov 05, 2025 255   @ UC Davis L 67-68 47%    
  Nov 11, 2025 176   Cal St. Northridge W 75-74 55%    
  Nov 17, 2025 138   Southern Illinois L 69-71 45%    
  Nov 26, 2025 154   Jacksonville St. L 65-68 39%    
  Nov 28, 2025 137   @ Arkansas St. L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 03, 2025 183   @ Montana L 69-73 35%    
  Dec 06, 2025 254   Northern Arizona W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 11, 2025 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 13, 2025 113   @ Drake L 55-65 20%    
  Dec 21, 2025 92   UC Irvine L 65-74 23%    
  Dec 31, 2025 294   South Dakota W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 03, 2026 318   Oral Roberts W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 08, 2026 300   @ UMKC W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 10, 2026 177   @ Nebraska Omaha L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 14, 2026 155   South Dakota St. L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 17, 2026 149   St. Thomas L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 22, 2026 322   @ Denver W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 24, 2026 318   @ Oral Roberts W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 31, 2026 294   @ South Dakota W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 05, 2026 322   Denver W 74-64 78%    
  Feb 07, 2026 177   Nebraska Omaha W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 14, 2026 315   @ North Dakota W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 18, 2026 155   @ South Dakota St. L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 21, 2026 300   UMKC W 69-61 74%    
  Feb 26, 2026 149   @ St. Thomas L 68-75 30%    
  Feb 28, 2026 315   North Dakota W 77-68 77%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 4.7 4.0 2.0 0.6 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.8 5.2 1.8 0.3 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.9 6.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.4 5.7 2.4 0.2 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.5 4.4 1.3 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.1 7.2 9.9 11.6 12.9 13.1 11.1 9.7 6.5 4.3 2.0 0.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
14-2 93.5% 4.0    3.4 0.6 0.0
13-3 72.3% 4.7    3.2 1.4 0.1
12-4 39.6% 3.8    1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 14.1% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
10-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 11.1 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 70.5% 70.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.0% 45.2% 45.2% 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1
14-2 4.3% 42.6% 42.6% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.4
13-3 6.5% 31.7% 31.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 4.4
12-4 9.7% 25.3% 25.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 7.2
11-5 11.1% 17.8% 17.8% 16.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 9.2
10-6 13.1% 11.9% 11.9% 16.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 11.6
9-7 12.9% 6.6% 6.6% 17.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 12.0
8-8 11.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.0
7-9 9.9% 3.6% 3.6% 17.2 0.0 0.4 9.5
6-10 7.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 7.0
5-11 5.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.0
4-12 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 86.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%