IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Rice
American Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.0	#172
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.5	#281
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.2	#158

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.2	#206

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.0%	6.0%	1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.1	11.2	12.2

.500 or above	37.4%	70.0%	36.0%
.500 or above in Conference	34.8%	56.0%	33.8%
Conference Champion	2.4%	7.2%	2.1%
Last Place in Conference	17.1%	7.9%	17.5%

First Four	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
First Round	2.0%	5.8%	1.8%
Second Round	0.3%	1.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 7	6 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 3	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	28	@ Oregon	L	61-79	4%
Nov 11, 2025	220	Stephen F. Austin	W	69-64	69%
Nov 14, 2025	331	East Texas A&M	W	74-62	87%
Nov 17, 2025	16	@ Tennessee	L	54-75	3%
Nov 20, 2025	273	Tarleton St.	W	69-61	76%
Nov 24, 2025	146	Kennesaw St.	L	72-74	43%
Nov 25, 2025	175	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	66-69	40%
Nov 26, 2025	318	Oral Roberts	W	75-67	76%
Dec 03, 2025	197	Texas St.	W	70-66	64%
Dec 13, 2025	137	Arkansas St.	W	72-71	52%
Dec 20, 2025	244	@ Pepperdine	W	72-71	53%
Dec 31, 2025	150	@ Tulsa	L	67-71	36%
Jan 03, 2026	51	Memphis	L	68-77	24%
Jan 07, 2026	122	@ Wichita St.	L	68-74	29%
Jan 11, 2026	192	Charlotte	W	70-66	63%
Jan 14, 2026	168	@ Texas San Antonio	L	72-75	40%
Jan 21, 2026	133	Temple	W	73-72	51%
Jan 25, 2026	150	Tulsa	W	70-68	56%
Jan 28, 2026	158	@ East Carolina	L	66-70	37%
Jan 31, 2026	192	@ Charlotte	L	67-69	44%
Feb 04, 2026	88	North Texas	L	59-63	38%
Feb 08, 2026	103	@ UAB	L	69-78	23%
Feb 11, 2026	140	Florida Atlantic	W	73-72	52%
Feb 14, 2026	158	East Carolina	W	69-67	57%
Feb 22, 2026	115	@ Tulane	L	66-73	28%
Feb 25, 2026	95	South Florida	L	69-73	39%
Mar 01, 2026	133	@ Temple	L	70-76	31%
Mar 04, 2026	88	@ North Texas	L	56-66	21%
Mar 08, 2026	168	Texas San Antonio	W	75-72	59%
Projected Record						13 - 16	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.2	1.4	0.9	0.4	0.0				4.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	1.8	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.0					5.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.1	2.6	1.1	0.2							6.3	4th
5th									0.2	2.2	3.0	1.5	0.2	0.0	0.0						7.1	5th
6th								0.1	1.7	3.9	1.8	0.2	0.0								7.7	6th
7th							0.0	1.2	4.2	2.8	0.3										8.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	4.0	4.0	0.6	0.0										9.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.5	3.5	4.1	1.1	0.0											9.2	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	2.8	4.6	1.8	0.1												9.8	10th
11th			0.0	0.4	2.6	4.0	2.1	0.3	0.0												9.4	11th
12th		0.1	0.7	2.7	3.9	2.4	0.4	0.0													10.1	12th
13th	0.5	1.9	3.0	3.2	1.7	0.3	0.0														10.7	13th

Total	0.5	2.0	3.8	6.3	8.6	10.0	11.3	11.5	11.3	9.9	7.7	6.4	4.6	2.8	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	95.9%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-3	63.9%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	36.2%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	15.6%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.4%	2.4		1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		9.0										0.0								0.0
17-1	0.1%		50.0%	41.7%	8.3%	10.3									0.0		0.0	0.0						0.0		14.3%
16-2	0.3%		26.5%	14.3%	12.2%	10.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.3		14.2%
15-3	1.1%		21.4%	20.1%	1.3%	11.1											0.0	0.2	0.0					0.9		1.6%
14-4	1.8%		16.6%	16.6%		11.5											0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.5
13-5	2.8%		12.0%	12.0%		12.0												0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0			2.4
12-6	4.6%		6.0%	6.0%		12.1												0.1	0.1	0.1				4.3
11-7	6.4%		4.8%	4.8%		12.4												0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0			6.1
10-8	7.7%		1.8%	1.8%		12.6												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			7.6
9-9	9.9%		1.6%	1.6%		13.0												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		9.7
8-10	11.3%		0.6%	0.6%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.2
7-11	11.5%		0.4%	0.4%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.4
6-12	11.3%		0.3%	0.3%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	11.2
5-13	10.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
4-14	8.6%																							8.6
3-15	6.3%																							6.3
2-16	3.8%																							3.8
1-17	2.0%																							2.0
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		2.0%	2.0%	0.1%	12.1									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	98.0		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%