Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#140
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.0% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 7.7% 8.2% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 22.3% 23.3% 7.9%
Top 6 Seed 39.2% 40.8% 18.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.2% 69.1% 39.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.7% 67.7% 38.9%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 6.9
.500 or above 81.5% 83.4% 54.2%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 64.6% 40.6%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.2% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.6% 4.7%
First Four5.2% 5.2% 5.4%
First Round64.6% 66.7% 36.6%
Second Round46.7% 48.4% 23.7%
Sweet Sixteen22.3% 23.2% 9.5%
Elite Eight9.3% 9.8% 3.2%
Final Four3.9% 4.1% 1.3%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 93.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 34 - 015 - 12
Quad 44 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 141   Hawaii W 77-61 93%    
  Nov 07, 2025 172   Rice W 79-61 96%    
  Nov 12, 2025 155   South Dakota St. W 83-66 94%    
  Nov 17, 2025 117   Oregon St. W 76-62 90%    
  Nov 24, 2025 22   Auburn L 73-74 46%    
  Nov 25, 2025 35   San Diego St. W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 02, 2025 29   USC W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 06, 2025 13   @ UCLA L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 13, 2025 255   UC Davis W 80-57 97%    
  Dec 17, 2025 265   Portland W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 21, 2025 18   Gonzaga L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 28, 2025 177   Nebraska Omaha W 83-64 95%    
  Jan 02, 2026 40   @ Maryland L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 05, 2026 82   @ Rutgers W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 08, 2026 27   Ohio St. W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 13, 2026 59   @ Nebraska W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 18, 2026 6   Michigan L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 20, 2026 21   Michigan St. W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 25, 2026 48   @ Washington W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 28, 2026 13   UCLA L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 01, 2026 34   Iowa W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 07, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 66-78 16%    
  Feb 09, 2026 33   @ Indiana L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 14, 2026 90   Penn St. W 80-68 83%    
  Feb 17, 2026 87   Minnesota W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 21, 2026 29   @ USC L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 25, 2026 26   Wisconsin W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 28, 2026 72   @ Northwestern W 70-66 61%    
  Mar 03, 2026 15   @ Illinois L 75-81 31%    
  Mar 07, 2026 48   Washington W 77-71 70%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.3 1.5 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 3.8 2.1 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.7 0.7 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.8 3.0 1.1 0.1 6.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.9 8.4 9.6 10.3 11.0 10.3 9.4 8.1 5.7 3.9 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 95.6% 0.5    0.4 0.0
18-2 82.5% 0.9    0.7 0.3 0.0
17-3 50.1% 1.2    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 22.0% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 5.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.9 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 2.6 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.7% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.4 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.1% 99.9% 9.2% 90.7% 4.2 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.4% 99.3% 4.7% 94.7% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 10.3% 97.9% 2.2% 95.8% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 97.9%
11-9 11.0% 93.2% 1.7% 91.5% 7.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.7 93.1%
10-10 10.3% 80.5% 0.7% 79.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.0 80.4%
9-11 9.6% 51.0% 0.4% 50.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 4.7 50.8%
8-12 8.4% 24.2% 0.3% 23.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 6.4 24.0%
7-13 6.9% 4.1% 4.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.6 4.1%
6-14 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.4%
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 67.2% 4.1% 63.0% 5.9 3.0 4.7 6.9 7.6 8.5 8.5 7.7 6.3 5.2 5.1 3.4 0.2 0.0 32.8 65.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3