IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Samford
Southern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.9	#171
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.5	#24
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.2	#128

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.1	#248

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.9%	17.5%	11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.1	13.9

.500 or above	58.4%	78.6%	51.7%
.500 or above in Conference	60.4%	73.8%	56.0%
Conference Champion	8.4%	13.0%	6.9%
Last Place in Conference	4.6%	1.8%	5.5%

First Four	0.8%	0.5%	0.9%
First Round	12.9%	17.5%	11.4%
Second Round	1.0%	1.8%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 5	4 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 4	14 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	115	@ Tulane	L	73-80	25%
Nov 12, 2025	290	@ Texas Southern	W	78-75	62%
Nov 14, 2025	17	@ Arkansas	L	68-89	3%
Nov 16, 2025	354	@ Central Arkansas	W	80-70	81%
Nov 21, 2025	139	@ New Mexico St.	L	69-74	32%
Nov 25, 2025	283	Georgia St.	W	82-76	70%
Nov 26, 2025	118	Utah Valley	L	74-78	38%
Dec 05, 2025	60	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	67-80	13%
Dec 07, 2025	165	Cornell	W	85-82	59%
Jan 01, 2026	293	@ VMI	W	78-75	62%
Jan 03, 2026	232	@ UNC Greensboro	L	71-72	50%
Jan 07, 2026	262	Western Carolina	W	83-75	74%
Jan 10, 2026	134	@ Chattanooga	L	74-80	32%
Jan 14, 2026	142	Furman	W	76-75	53%
Jan 17, 2026	156	East Tennessee St.	W	74-72	57%
Jan 21, 2026	205	@ Wofford	L	73-74	46%
Jan 24, 2026	134	Chattanooga	W	78-77	52%
Jan 29, 2026	142	@ Furman	L	73-78	33%
Jan 31, 2026	262	@ Western Carolina	W	80-78	55%
Feb 05, 2026	342	The Citadel	W	80-66	87%
Feb 11, 2026	205	Wofford	W	76-71	65%
Feb 14, 2026	156	@ East Tennessee St.	L	71-75	37%
Feb 19, 2026	342	@ The Citadel	W	77-69	73%
Feb 26, 2026	293	VMI	W	81-72	78%
Feb 28, 2026	232	UNC Greensboro	W	74-68	69%
Projected Record						13 - 12	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.7	2.3	3.0	1.8	0.5				8.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	2.0	4.4	3.7	1.3	0.2					11.8	2nd
3rd										0.4	2.8	5.6	3.8	1.0	0.1						13.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.5	3.5	6.2	3.7	0.7	0.0							14.7	4th
5th							0.0	0.7	3.3	5.8	3.2	0.4	0.0								13.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	3.5	5.3	2.3	0.3										12.2	6th
7th					0.1	0.7	2.9	4.3	2.1	0.3											10.3	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.0	2.3	3.1	1.4	0.2	0.0											8.1	8th
9th			0.2	0.7	1.7	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0												5.0	9th
10th	0.0	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0														2.4	10th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.5	3.3	4.9	7.4	9.9	11.4	12.4	12.8	11.8	9.6	7.0	4.3	2.0	0.5					Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.5		0.4	0.0
15-3	91.5%	1.8		1.5	0.4
14-4	69.1%	3.0		1.7	1.2	0.1
13-5	32.4%	2.3		0.8	1.0	0.4	0.1
12-6	7.7%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.0%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	8.4%	8.4		4.6	2.9	0.7	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.5%		49.3%	47.7%	1.6%	11.3							0.0				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		3.0%
15-3	2.0%		46.2%	46.2%		12.1											0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0			1.1
14-4	4.3%		42.1%	42.1%		12.5										0.0		0.1	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0		2.5
13-5	7.0%		29.6%	29.6%		12.9												0.1	0.6	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0	4.9
12-6	9.6%		23.0%	23.0%		13.5												0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0	7.4
11-7	11.8%		15.5%	15.5%		14.0													0.1	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.1	10.0
10-8	12.8%		12.7%	12.7%		15.0													0.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	11.2
9-9	12.4%		8.6%	8.6%		16.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	11.3
8-10	11.4%		5.3%	5.3%		18.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	10.8
7-11	9.9%		3.1%	3.1%		18.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	9.6
6-12	7.4%		2.0%	2.0%		18.2																0.0	0.2	7.3
5-13	4.9%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	4.8
4-14	3.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
3-15	1.5%																							1.5
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.9%	12.9%	0.0%	14.0							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.5	2.5	3.4	3.1	2.3	1.5	87.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%