IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.6	#138
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.3	#139
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.5	#148

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.1	#131

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.5%	9.2%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.0	11.9	13.2

.500 or above	55.5%	59.5%	28.6%
.500 or above in Conference	57.8%	60.4%	39.4%
Conference Champion	9.5%	10.3%	4.1%
Last Place in Conference	6.4%	5.6%	12.5%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
First Round	8.4%	9.0%	3.9%
Second Round	1.3%	1.4%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 5	2 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 6	9 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 2	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	300	UMKC	W	72-60	87%
Nov 12, 2025	104	@ Nevada	L	64-70	29%
Nov 17, 2025	215	@ North Dakota St.	W	71-69	55%
Nov 24, 2025	236	Delaware	W	79-73	71%
Nov 24, 2025	103	UAB	L	73-76	38%
Nov 26, 2025	51	@ Memphis	L	69-81	14%
Nov 29, 2025	162	Arkansas Little Rock	W	72-67	68%
Dec 03, 2025	109	@ High Point	L	70-75	32%
Dec 10, 2025	325	Tennessee Martin	W	77-63	90%
Dec 13, 2025	131	@ Richmond	L	66-69	38%
Dec 18, 2025	105	Illinois St.	W	72-71	50%
Dec 21, 2025	107	@ Bradley	L	66-72	31%
Dec 29, 2025	129	@ Murray St.	L	66-70	39%
Jan 01, 2026	261	Valparaiso	W	77-67	79%
Jan 04, 2026	111	@ Belmont	L	74-79	33%
Jan 07, 2026	153	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	72-74	45%
Jan 14, 2026	113	Drake	W	62-61	54%
Jan 17, 2026	111	Belmont	W	77-76	52%
Jan 21, 2026	261	@ Valparaiso	W	74-70	63%
Jan 25, 2026	231	@ Evansville	W	69-67	58%
Jan 28, 2026	112	Northern Iowa	W	69-68	53%
Jan 31, 2026	153	Illinois-Chicago	W	75-71	64%
Feb 03, 2026	105	@ Illinois St.	L	69-75	32%
Feb 06, 2026	129	Murray St.	W	69-67	58%
Feb 09, 2026	173	@ Indiana St.	L	78-79	49%
Feb 12, 2026	231	Evansville	W	72-64	76%
Feb 15, 2026	107	Bradley	W	70-69	51%
Feb 18, 2026	113	@ Drake	L	59-64	34%
Feb 21, 2026	112	@ Northern Iowa	L	66-71	34%
Feb 25, 2026	173	Indiana St.	W	81-75	69%
Projected Record						15 - 15	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	1.0	2.1	2.4	1.9	1.2	0.5	0.1		9.5	1st
2nd												0.1	0.6	2.1	3.2	2.5	1.0	0.3	0.0				9.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	3.0	3.8	2.3	0.5	0.0						10.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.3	4.2	2.0	0.2	0.0							10.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	3.3	4.2	1.9	0.2									10.6	5th
6th								0.1	1.0	3.4	4.2	1.5	0.2										10.4	6th
7th							0.1	0.9	3.4	4.1	1.7	0.2											10.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.1	3.0	3.6	1.3	0.1	0.0											9.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.6	2.7	2.6	1.2	0.1													8.6	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.6	2.1	1.7	0.5	0.1														6.6	10th
11th	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.2																3.9	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.6	3.0	4.5	5.8	7.1	9.2	9.8	10.2	10.0	9.8	8.4	6.7	5.1	3.5	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
18-2	98.3%	1.2		1.1	0.1
17-3	88.3%	1.9		1.6	0.3	0.0
16-4	70.0%	2.4		1.5	0.8	0.1
15-5	41.0%	2.1		0.9	0.9	0.2	0.0
14-6	15.1%	1.0		0.2	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	2.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	9.5%	9.5		6.1	2.6	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		87.5%	68.8%	18.8%	7.3				0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		60.0%
19-1	0.5%		65.3%	53.1%	12.2%	9.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.2		26.1%
18-2	1.2%		51.4%	47.9%	3.5%	10.4						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.6		6.7%
17-3	2.2%		41.0%	38.7%	2.3%	11.1								0.0		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0				1.3		3.7%
16-4	3.5%		27.8%	27.2%	0.6%	11.5											0.0	0.5	0.4	0.0				2.5		0.9%
15-5	5.1%		19.6%	19.5%	0.1%	11.8												0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0			4.1		0.2%
14-6	6.7%		19.0%	18.9%	0.1%	12.1												0.2	0.7	0.3	0.0			5.5		0.1%
13-7	8.4%		12.2%	12.2%		12.4												0.1	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0		7.4
12-8	9.8%		9.7%	9.7%		13.0												0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1		8.9
11-9	10.0%		6.0%	6.0%		13.1												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.4
10-10	10.2%		3.5%	3.5%		14.0													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.8
9-11	9.8%		1.9%	1.9%		15.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	9.7
8-12	9.2%		0.9%	0.9%		16.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.1
7-13	7.1%		0.5%	0.5%		15.4																0.0	0.0	7.1
6-14	5.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.8
5-15	4.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
4-16	3.0%																							3.0
3-17	1.6%																							1.6
2-18	0.8%																							0.8
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		8.5%	8.3%	0.2%	12.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.4	2.1	3.2	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	91.5		0.2%