IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Riverside
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.1	#256
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#199
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.3	#237

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#269

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.8%	2.6%	1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	13.4	14.4

.500 or above	21.7%	30.9%	11.3%
.500 or above in Conference	33.9%	41.1%	25.7%
Conference Champion	2.0%	2.8%	1.0%
Last Place in Conference	13.7%	9.7%	18.1%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	1.9%	2.6%	1.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 14
Quad 4	9 - 6	12 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2025	315	@ North Dakota	W	74-73	53%
Nov 11, 2025	81	@ New Mexico	L	68-83	9%
Nov 15, 2025	315	North Dakota	W	77-70	73%
Nov 18, 2025	174	@ California Baptist	L	65-72	28%
Nov 21, 2025	180	@ San Diego	L	72-79	27%
Nov 24, 2025	284	Grambling St.	W	68-63	67%
Nov 29, 2025	269	@ Utah Tech	L	70-72	42%
Dec 04, 2025	92	@ UC Irvine	L	64-78	12%
Dec 06, 2025	253	@ Cal Poly	L	79-82	39%
Dec 13, 2025	9	@ BYU	L	60-87	1%
Dec 20, 2025	149	@ St. Thomas	L	68-77	23%
Dec 23, 2025	13	@ UCLA	L	55-81	1%
Jan 01, 2026	141	Hawaii	L	67-70	39%
Jan 08, 2026	234	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	68-72	36%
Jan 10, 2026	119	UC San Diego	L	66-71	34%
Jan 15, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	L	66-69	41%
Jan 17, 2026	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	74-65	76%
Jan 22, 2026	92	UC Irvine	L	67-75	26%
Jan 24, 2026	255	@ UC Davis	L	67-70	40%
Jan 29, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	69-66	61%
Jan 31, 2026	253	Cal Poly	W	82-79	58%
Feb 05, 2026	336	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	71-68	59%
Feb 07, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	72-79	28%
Feb 12, 2026	126	UC Santa Barbara	L	68-72	36%
Feb 14, 2026	119	@ UC San Diego	L	63-74	20%
Feb 19, 2026	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	71-69	56%
Feb 21, 2026	255	UC Davis	W	70-67	60%
Feb 26, 2026	126	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	65-75	20%
Feb 28, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	L	75-76	47%
Mar 06, 2026	141	@ Hawaii	L	64-73	22%
Projected Record						11 - 19	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.1			2.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0				3.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.3	1.6	1.9	1.4	0.4	0.0						5.7	3rd
4th										0.1	0.7	2.3	2.6	1.3	0.2	0.0							7.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.0	3.3	3.5	1.3	0.2	0.0								9.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.5	4.2	1.4	0.1										12.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.0	4.7	4.2	1.1	0.1	0.0										12.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.6	2.7	4.9	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.0											13.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	1.0	3.6	4.7	3.1	0.7	0.0													13.2	9th
10th		0.0	0.5	1.8	4.0	3.7	2.0	0.4	0.0														12.6	10th
11th	0.4	1.2	2.1	2.6	1.7	0.7	0.1																8.8	11th

Total	0.4	1.2	2.6	4.5	6.8	8.7	9.8	10.6	10.8	10.7	9.5	7.7	5.8	4.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1				Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	87.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	82.4%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
16-4	57.5%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	26.2%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-6	7.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.1%	0.1		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.1%		62.5%	62.5%		11.8												0.0	0.0					0.0
18-2	0.2%		37.1%	37.1%		12.9													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
17-3	0.5%		28.9%	27.5%	1.4%	12.4												0.0	0.1	0.1				0.3		2.0%
16-4	1.0%		23.0%	23.0%		12.8													0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.8
15-5	1.8%		15.3%	15.3%		13.0													0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.6
14-6	3.1%		12.0%	12.0%		13.7													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1		2.7
13-7	4.1%		5.4%	5.4%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	3.9
12-8	5.8%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	5.7
11-9	7.7%		1.5%	1.5%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0		7.6
10-10	9.5%		1.2%	1.2%		18.3															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.4
9-11	10.7%		0.5%	0.5%		19.8																0.0	0.1	10.6
8-12	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
7-13	10.6%		0.2%	0.2%		21.3																	0.0	10.6
6-14	9.8%																							9.8
5-15	8.7%																							8.7
4-16	6.8%																							6.8
3-17	4.5%																							4.5
2-18	2.6%																							2.6
1-19	1.2%																							1.2
0-20	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		1.8%	1.8%	0.0%	14.2												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.2	98.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%