Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#127
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#161
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.5% 45.6% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.3 13.2
.500 or above 82.6% 94.5% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 94.8% 86.8%
Conference Champion 47.7% 62.2% 44.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.8% 2.6%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 1.0%
First Round35.7% 45.6% 33.4%
Second Round4.3% 7.1% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.8% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 18.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 62   @ Boise St. L 65-74 18%    
  Nov 15, 2025 186   @ Fresno St. W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 19, 2025 92   UC Irvine W 71-70 50%    
  Nov 25, 2025 155   South Dakota St. W 75-72 60%    
  Nov 26, 2025 171   Samford W 78-74 62%    
  Dec 03, 2025 35   @ San Diego St. L 60-74 11%    
  Dec 06, 2025 212   @ Bowling Green W 73-70 59%    
  Dec 10, 2025 287   Idaho St. W 75-62 87%    
  Dec 13, 2025 126   UC Santa Barbara W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 17, 2025 281   Weber St. W 74-62 86%    
  Dec 29, 2025 174   California Baptist W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 01, 2026 273   @ Tarleton St. W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 03, 2026 166   @ Abilene Christian W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 08, 2026 271   Southern Utah W 77-65 84%    
  Jan 10, 2026 269   Utah Tech W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 17, 2026 190   Texas Arlington W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 21, 2026 271   @ Southern Utah W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 24, 2026 174   @ California Baptist W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 29, 2026 273   @ Tarleton St. W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 05, 2026 166   Abilene Christian W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 07, 2026 190   Texas Arlington W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 12, 2026 269   @ Utah Tech W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 19, 2026 174   California Baptist W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 21, 2026 190   @ Texas Arlington W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 26, 2026 273   Tarleton St. W 72-60 83%    
  Feb 28, 2026 166   Abilene Christian W 73-67 70%    
  Mar 05, 2026 271   @ Southern Utah W 74-68 68%    
  Mar 07, 2026 269   @ Utah Tech W 73-67 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 6.3 9.8 10.5 8.7 6.4 2.6 47.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.2 6.4 6.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.3 4.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.9 4.6 5.7 7.6 9.4 11.3 12.8 12.6 11.2 8.8 6.4 2.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
17-1 100.0% 6.4    6.4
16-2 99.0% 8.7    8.4 0.3
15-3 93.6% 10.5    9.3 1.2
14-4 77.6% 9.8    7.2 2.4 0.2
13-5 49.2% 6.3    3.7 2.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 24.0% 2.7    0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0
11-7 6.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 38.5 7.8 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.6% 77.1% 76.3% 0.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 3.4%
17-1 6.4% 69.3% 69.0% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 0.7%
16-2 8.8% 60.6% 60.5% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 3.5 0.2%
15-3 11.2% 52.8% 52.8% 12.8 0.3 2.0 2.4 1.1 0.1 5.3
14-4 12.6% 45.1% 45.1% 13.3 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.7 0.5 6.9
13-5 12.8% 38.2% 38.2% 13.7 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 7.9
12-6 11.3% 29.3% 29.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.3 8.0
11-7 9.4% 19.5% 19.5% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 7.5
10-8 7.6% 13.3% 13.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 6.6
9-9 5.7% 9.7% 9.7% 16.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 5.1
8-10 4.6% 7.7% 7.7% 17.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.2
7-11 2.9% 4.7% 4.7% 16.6 0.0 0.1 2.7
6-12 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 2.0
5-13 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 35.5% 35.5% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.4 8.9 10.1 7.3 3.9 1.6 64.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.4 9.0 9.0 35.9 26.9 18.6 0.6