Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#261
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#138
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#238
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#277
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 12.1% 15.0% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 12.6% 14.8% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 40.4% 36.3% 52.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 74.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 94 - 17
Quad 46 - 410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 321   Eastern Illinois W 72-65 75%    
  Nov 07, 2025 7   @ Kentucky L 63-91 1%    
  Nov 12, 2025 241   Nicholls St. W 73-71 57%    
  Nov 16, 2025 248   Bryant W 78-76 58%    
  Nov 19, 2025 223   @ Cleveland St. L 66-71 33%    
  Nov 26, 2025 311   Southern Indiana W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 29, 2025 282   Western Michigan W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 02, 2025 43   @ Marquette L 61-82 4%    
  Dec 13, 2025 120   UNC Wilmington L 68-73 34%    
  Dec 16, 2025 72   @ Northwestern L 61-77 8%    
  Dec 21, 2025 129   Murray St. L 67-71 35%    
  Dec 29, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 63-75 15%    
  Jan 01, 2026 138   @ Southern Illinois L 67-77 21%    
  Jan 04, 2026 153   Illinois-Chicago L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 07, 2026 105   Illinois St. L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 10, 2026 129   @ Murray St. L 64-74 20%    
  Jan 13, 2026 111   @ Belmont L 71-83 15%    
  Jan 17, 2026 112   Northern Iowa L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 21, 2026 138   Southern Illinois L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 28, 2026 111   Belmont L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 31, 2026 173   @ Indiana St. L 76-83 28%    
  Feb 03, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 63-76 15%    
  Feb 06, 2026 231   Evansville W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 09, 2026 113   @ Drake L 56-68 17%    
  Feb 12, 2026 105   @ Illinois St. L 66-79 14%    
  Feb 15, 2026 173   Indiana St. L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 18, 2026 107   Bradley L 66-73 30%    
  Feb 21, 2026 153   @ Illinois-Chicago L 69-78 24%    
  Feb 25, 2026 113   Drake L 59-65 31%    
  Feb 28, 2026 231   @ Evansville L 67-72 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.1 3.8 1.0 0.1 14.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.8 6.2 3.7 1.0 0.1 21.2 10th
11th 2.0 5.5 7.8 7.7 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 31.1 11th
Total 2.0 5.5 8.7 11.3 11.9 12.4 11.4 9.7 8.0 6.4 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 83.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 66.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 58.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 23.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 24.9% 16.6% 8.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.9%
16-4 0.1% 5.1% 5.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 14.0% 14.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 0.6% 10.8% 10.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.4% 8.8% 8.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-8 2.1% 3.7% 3.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0
11-9 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-10 4.6% 1.7% 1.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
9-11 6.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4
8-12 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 8.0
7-13 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 18.4 0.0 0.1 9.6
6-14 11.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
5-15 12.4% 12.4
4-16 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-17 11.3% 11.3
2-18 8.7% 8.7
1-19 5.5% 5.5
0-20 2.0% 2.0
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%