Minnesota
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
113  Obsa Ali JR 31:53
148  Charlie Lawrence JR 32:02
230  Connor Olson FR 32:19
396  Matt Welch JR 32:43
449  Joey Duerr FR 32:50
484  Derek Wiebke JR 32:54
685  Wayde Hall JR 33:16
707  Evan Ferlic FR 33:18
783  Shane Streich FR 33:26
1,511  Eric Colvin JR 34:26
National Rank #40 of 312
Midwest Region Rank #6 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 15.7%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.8%


Regional Champion 0.7%
Top 5 in Regional 43.6%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Obsa Ali Charlie Lawrence Connor Olson Matt Welch Joey Duerr Derek Wiebke Wayde Hall Evan Ferlic Shane Streich Eric Colvin
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 594 31:13 32:32 33:14 31:02 32:38 32:38 33:43 33:36 33:47 34:25
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 33:13 33:09 35:19
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 747 31:41 32:03 32:17 32:49 33:16 33:03 33:09
Big 10 Championship 10/30 613 33:23 31:45 31:50 31:48 32:40 32:37 33:18 32:30 33:28
Midwest Region Championships 11/11 805 32:00 32:03 32:16 33:46 32:54 33:25 34:06





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 15.7% 25.3 611 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.7
Region Championship 100% 5.6 165 0.7 2.4 6.4 13.7 20.5 30.0 17.0 6.2 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Obsa Ali 44.6% 88.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2
Charlie Lawrence 28.2% 103.9 0.1
Connor Olson 16.9% 141.8
Matt Welch 15.7% 204.8
Joey Duerr 15.7% 210.5
Derek Wiebke 15.7% 213.8
Wayde Hall 15.9% 238.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Obsa Ali 10.5 1.3 3.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 4.6 3.9 5.1 3.5 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.6 1.7 2.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3
Charlie Lawrence 15.5 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.7 3.5 3.6 5.2 3.8 3.8 4.6 5.3 4.0 3.3 4.3 2.9 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.9 2.4 1.6 2.4 1.5
Connor Olson 27.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 3.3 3.5
Matt Welch 49.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8
Joey Duerr 54.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Derek Wiebke 60.1 0.1 0.2
Wayde Hall 81.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.7% 100.0% 0.7 0.7 1
2 2.4% 100.0% 2.4 2.4 2
3 6.4% 60.6% 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 2.5 3.9 3
4 13.7% 31.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.5 9.4 4.3 4
5 20.5% 14.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.0 17.6 2.9 5
6 30.0% 4.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 28.5 1.5 6
7 17.0% 0.3% 0.1 17.0 0.1 7
8 6.2% 0.8% 0.1 6.2 0.1 8
9 2.1% 2.1 9
10 1.1% 1.1 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.1% 0.1 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 15.7% 0.7 2.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.8 2.0 3.7 84.3 3.1 12.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Michigan 66.4% 1.0 0.7
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Navy 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 3.0 1.0
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.6
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 10.0